Aulas de “Economia industrial da crise” no IE\Unicamp

Aqui està algum material, que serà de tempo em tempo atualisado, sobre algumas meas aulas como Profesor Visitante  no IE (Instituto de Economia, dir. Marian Laplane) da Unicamp, Campinas SP.

En seguida, tudo este material ficarà fora da blog-timeline, na proxima pagina “fixa” intitulada UNICAMP, que continuarà sua vida propria como a pagina deste blog em lingua portuguesa (com erros, infelizmente – nenhum e’ perfeito). Ver “STATIC PAGES” aqui na coluna de direita, onde em dezembro vai aparecer o iten UNICAMP.

Materiais de leitura com bibliografias:

1) os seminarios e as aulas sao partes dum eschema mas amplo (nao inteiramente tratado, por falta de tempo) “A ECONOMIA INDUSTRIAL DA CRISE” – ilustrado nesse documento: EcoIndaCrise1011_current_v

2) as 3 aulas das terças ferias 10 – 17 – 24 novembro, pelo Seminario da Pos-Graduaçao (Mestrado, Doutorados) sao resumidas nesses documentos.

1o novembro: 1011010aula_I_Enzo. “Background” para entender melhor a atual crise da Irlanda, que està dinamizando a CRISE SOBERANA EUROPEIA:

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/nov/11/ireland-rise-crash/

Para quem sabe ler Italiano, ver tamben no assunto Irlandes esta discussao:

http://www.noisefromamerika.org/index.php/articles/Di_chi_%C3%A8_vittima_l’Irlanda%3F

17 novembro: 101117aula_II > “Commanding Heights”, a cit. entervista da Laura Tyson sobre a Politica Economica da epoca Clintoniana: int_lauratyson_CLINTONadm

24 novembro: a tecnologia e as prospectivas de longo prazo; novas bolhas, e uma nova onda lunga?

101124aula3seminario_v1

Interessante este twitter msg (em Italiano) que reuna 2 temas da nossa resenha dos novos paradigmas, o trans-humanismo e o quantum computing:

 

 

transumanisti network h+

Computer quantistici più vicini alla realtà grazie a nuove ricerche teoriche: I computer quantistici potrebbero … http://bit.ly/dGQ0TL
Falamos mesmo de spin:
cienciahoje Ciência Hoje
Adilson de Oliveira explica o que é o spin e mostra como ele revolucionará o processamento da informação: http://is.gd/hqoIy

Terà aviso nessa pagina – em breve (Dezembro) transferida na pagina statica UNICAMP – quando eu atualizo alguns documentos, com novos argomentos ou  bibliografias.

Para interagir, podem mandar comentos aquì por qualquer esclarecimento, pedido, pergunta o outro assunto. CIAO (tchao).

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a Francoforte sono dei Bari

Bari a Francoforte. Il cavallo germanico e’ stanco e  s’abbevera meno.

6 pm GMT UPDATE: we knew nothing, zis morning,  about today’s European stock exchanges, where someone must agree with the Roubini’s tiny sect.

Whatever they think, they voted today  “pollice verso” to ECB dull uncertainty, going opposite to a last minute rally at  Wall Street, with:  FTSE Eurofirst 300 -3.96%,  CAC 40 Paris -5.4%.


If the German horse drinks less,

at ECB they must cheat.

Two bad news from Germany, for the European deep recession.

Today: -6% manuf. industries orders in Germany.

Yesterday: at ECB they have lost their LAST CHANCE to serve the people they should serve.

ECB cuts rates by 0.75, NOT daring to choose between 0.5 and 1.0.

Please note that, as soon as some world region will succeed to do something in order not to stop (physically impossible), but  to smooth some effects of the “december 2007 – sometimes in 2o10-11” recession, Europe will just crackdown as a whole, in the absence of any policy. And there is no reason to preview that any policy will be undertaken in Europe, before it’s too late: IT IS TOO LATE ALREADY.

All the best macro-economists (except our modest, little Roubini sect, the Truth-Tellers) realised we were in a crisis, although still not grasping it as a complex-deep and  unique one, only in … September 20o8, i.e. 13  months after its dramatic, nuclear-bomb  implosion.

The forecast of a German bank of GDP – 4% is  clearly over-optimistic,  in an average scenario without any European economic policy; eventually, later on just  some social policy, when people’s revolts will diffuse and become violent. The Italian CGIL Trade Union is  unluckily the only one, of the 3 BIG TUs,  to play a democratic, moderate and responsible game; with foresightedness, in order to prevent the crisis to go socially very very bad, catastrophic and  VIOLENT; an ideal ground for Red and Islamic Brigades: we’ll talk this soon, in a next post, à propos of the FRIDAY 12 DEC. GENERAL STRIKE IN ITALY ON BEHALF OF AN ECONOMIC POLICY. Talking Brigades: DO YOU KNOW THAT THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME HUNDREDS  hidden-sleeping Al Qaeda associates in Germany, UK and elsewhere, with a European passport, and all of them received a full military training in the tribal provinces of Pakistan? We know it, from published sources: October issue,  Le Monde Diplomatiqe.

From the Frankfurt BABEL TOWER (read: ECB), board member Mr Bini Smaghi (interviewed zis morning at Italian RAI-RADIO 3) replies to the  -4% provocation, by saying that “such bank economists have vested interests” (conflitto di interessi) in making such forecasts. He, they forecast a GDP upturn in the 2009 2nd semester, but they don’t believe such bullshit, since they are not crazy. They just lie.

Let us fix a 1st Babel Tower dimension: LA MALAFEDE;  at the ECB they are liars  using all their hyperpower and Authority, to  diffuse informational heavy drugs, downers (tranquillanti) to people. MENTONO SAPENDO DI MENTINE.

TODAY: According to Mario Platero (il sole 24 ore correspondent), the worst guesses were 380,000 jobs lost in November: they came out almost 50% more than that. IT IS SURE THAT THE U.S. ARE  LOSING MORE THAN 2 MILLION JOBS across 2008, since thet’re up to 1.7 mn by now.

ft

US job losses steepest since 1974

The US economy lost a stunning 533,000 jobs in November – the largest monthly drop in more than three decades – as the unemployment rate jumped to 6.7 per cent
today, Dec.5; – 14:23

German manufacturing orders collapse

October orders fall 6.1%
today, Dec.5; – 12:19

YESTERDAY: At ECB,  besides being professional and trained liars: either they know little about economics, or they live in another planet (ignoring what happens here), or they have unconfessable aims (like fucking the working class and the Trade Unions, together with large sections of the creative and productive bourgeoisie, etc.). We firmly believe THE 4 OF THEM HOLD, in a satanic mix.

As usual, ECB did’nt dare to cut 1% full (just 0.75), even though  its 2%  inflation target is already, fully and even too much satisfied – since (a short lecture  for  ECB dunces and liars):

081204oil-price

a) Summer 2008 breakthrough shift in ALL PRIMARY MARKETS: from inflation to deflation;

b) such a radical change is NOW quickly diffusing  downwards on intermediate and final goods markets;

c) present state-of-the-art: less year-base inflation, quickly converging to the 2% target and overshooting;

d) ST perspective: a DRAMATIC DEFLATION much more than likely:  pretty difficult to avoid, exp. without creativity, innovation and Zeitgeist in economic, social policies and Politics tout court. A horrible  STAG – DEFLATION – Roubini, 2 dec. FT.

wsj

[Crisis Management chart]

ECB, Bank of England Cut Rates

Central banks world-wide delivered sweeping cuts,

with the ECB lowering rates by 0.75 percentage point to 2.5%

and the BOE slashing its key rate by one point to 2%. (Trichet remarks)