LAVORARE MENO, LAVORARE TUTTI

 

sacconi-maurizio

Maurizio già in posa papale.

Crozza:  sei omonimo, studia la sua gestualità

ONDA MERKEL (LAVORARE MENO, LAVORARE TUTTI) IN ITALIA: ACCORDO UNANIME. IN ITALIA PARE SI FARA’ CON ACCORDI AZIENDALI, ma con le risorse pubbliche della Cassa CIG  (anche la Merkel  “paga” lei il 5° giorno, sempre in ipotesi). 

Cosi si potrebbe contenere il milione di posti a rischio nell’industria (non si sa quanti nei servizi: 2  MILIONI? farebbe -1/7 dell’occupazione, quindi una settimana corta GENERALIZZATA  potrebbe riassorbire il calo di domanda di F-L), se  e solo se il governo sarà messo in corner, e costretto a fare A GENNAIO almeno un primo (di una lunga serie) STIMOLO FISCALE DI EMERGENZA (i soldi si trovano anche senza alzare il deficit: basta non fare come Tremonti in Finanziaria, che ha tagliato tutte le spese del 10%, senza dar caccia ne’ ad evasori  – OGGI  AD UN MAX STORICO – ne’ a sprechi). 

Noi pensiamo che con il cinico e digiuno di economia Tremonti al Tesoro, l’Italia sia fottuta: LA CRISI SARA’ TERRIBILE, UNA MACELLERIA SOCIALE, E DEGENERERA’ NEL SANGUE. L’abbiamo argomentato a josa. Ma i giochi sono aperti.

Con la  BOLLA SPECULATIVA “Merkel” scoppiata da 2 gg., e’ la prima volta che in Italia si prendono sul serio le politiche keynesiane, senza le quali l’Italia s’africanizza nella stag-deflazione.

Qualificano la loro adesione alla linea Merkel, lanciata in Italia da Sacconi ed il segr. CISL  Bonanni (Maurizio sorpassa con questa mossa rapida ed intelligente Brunetta, nei futures su chi sarà il prossimo Premier, rovinando all’improvviso mesi di paziente e duro lavoro di Renato):

– Epifani segr.  CGIL:

—- purche’  sia in un quadro di garanzie, che includa i precari. NB: i giovani precari sono 3 milioni in Italia, ossi ail 15% della forza lavoro, Da dati ISTAT eisulta che mezzo milione si siano precarizzati, sparendo del L regolare.

—- nessuna furbizia: non sia un alibi per non sostenere i consumi,

-Bombassei vice-P CONFINDUSTRIA:

—- dev’essere temporanea e  non può essere estesa a tutti (ndr: ma allora non funziona)

—-  accompagnata da altre misure (ossia la stessa condizione keynesiana di Epifani;  poi, come evidenziato dal nostro liveblogging di ieri, una loro richiesta specifica e’ la detassazione degli utili reinvestiti).

Con queste  importanti qualificazioni, tutto l’arco politico e sociale e’ d’accordo, OCCORRE PASSARE AI  FATTI. La Repubblica:  in un’azienda di Franciacorta, si fanno già 19 ore all’80% del salario.

Quanto alla corsa alla sua successione aperta ufficialmente ieri dal Cavaliere Minimo (trattato a pesci in faccia sul Presidenzialismo da TUTTI: OGGI E’ IL GIORNO DELLE UNANIMITA’ – pare la Svizzera), si può notare che se la giocano la pattuglia dei 3 ministri socialisti: il Cav. ha però parlato di giovani ministri escludendo Tremonti che gli fa ombra, ma farà presto una brutta fine – travolto dallo Tsunami Stag-deflazione. Restano i miei amici Maurizio e Renato, cresciuti nel PSI veneziano-trevigiano di Gianni De Michelis, ai miei tempi.

La Stampa

Settimana corta, l’apertura della Cgil

Epifani favorevole: «Ma no alle furbizie» Sacconi: distribuire su più persone il minore carico di lavoro

ROMA

Lavorare meno, lavorare tutti: la proposta della settimana corta e dei contratti di solidarietà lanciata dal ministro del Welfare incontra il favore di sindacati e imprese. Seppur con qualche distinguo e precisazione sulle modalità di applicazione degli strumenti di solidarietà indicati da Maurizio Sacconi, le parti si dichiarano disponibili a un confronto con il Governo su tutte le forme di tutela dell’occupazione in questa fase di crisi economica.

Il piano prevede la possibilità di andare in cassa integrazione per una parte della settimana e lavorare per la parte restante, secondo un principio di rotazione della Cig che consente di spalmare un minor carico di lavoro su più persone, a differenza di quella a zero ore e di quella ordinaria. Dal leader della Cgil, Guglielmo Epifani, arriva un sì a patto che settimana corta e contratti di solidarietà «siano inseriti in un quadro di tutele che evitino il distacco dei lavoratori dai posti di lavoro, non escludano i lavoratori precari e non costituiscano una furbizia per evitare al soggetto pubblico di investire tutte le risorse necessarie».

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Se vince il Nero (incrociamo le dita)

obamacerealElection flavour … choose from Obama O’s or Cap ‘N MaCain’s cereal. Photograph: Airbed&Breakfast

 

CRONACHE OBAMIANE

 

4 novembre pomeriggio

intrade

See realtime updates of battleground states here.

Obama is ahead in swing states Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico.

John McCain leads in Georgia, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota.

Missouri has teetered red and blue in recent days, but … is tilting to Obama.

Aspettando di verificare stanotte se intrade.com c’azzecca (e chi si fida dei sondaggi ?), dando “il Nero” (come lo chiama simpaticamente Gramellini oggi su La Stampa) vincente al 92%, e travolgente con 364 voti contro 174.

081104_mani_tese

RIflettiamo sulla lezione Obamica ed americana di UNITA’ DELLA SINISTRA, e convergenza degli OPPRESSI con i ceti medi liberal e progressisti. La nostra ferma convinzione  e’ che il terreno delle lotte di classe (svariate, e durissime dentro le borghesie) ed altre lotte (geo-politiche) dentro la CRISI SUBCRIME, detti delle direttive per la ricostruzione delle SINISTRE, sia riformiste che rivoluzionarie, nei paesi occidentali.

Ossia. non e’ una alleanza meramente tattica quella americana, solo per uscire dall’incubo di Bush. Mentre il centro-sinistra italiano ha sempre errato nel cercare convergenze tattiche anti-Berlusconi, finendo in quella clamorosa cazzata e disastro pro-Cavaliere dell’ultimo Governo Prodi. E non e’ finita:  Walter-Ego che corre dietro a quella nullità di Di Pietro, addirittura un referendum sulle fondazioni ed i grembiulini ?!? Ma anche Massimo d’Alema, quando parla di ricostruire le alleanze del PD, pare guardare più al centro ex-DC, pure se non trascura la sinistra rivoluzionaria in crisi d’identità.

Strategicamente, come lo Tsunami subcrime ha incoronato il Nero, così le politiche sociali anti-crisi e nella crisi sono il campo soggettivo ed oggettivo di ricostruzione delle sinistre, la scuola va benissimo MA NON BASTA. Riportiamo qui, a titolo di esempio, un brano del nostro lungo .pdf di analisi economica della crisi, nella versione aggiornata che uscirà a giorni (aspettavamo le elezioni per ridurre l’incertezza).

The policies guidelines we support and describe here are, in synthesis:

1. we support a SOCIALIST redistribution of wealth (the j’accuse of McCain to Obama), i.e. not just a (necessary, but insufficient) Keynesan fiscal redistribution (see point 3), but much more: changing à la Marx the value creation\ appropriation mechanisms of Financial Capitalism, fighting back the expropriation of value creators.

2. Under BRIC-Chindian- emerging countries increasing competition, OECD countries should react by refocussing technological innovation versus Finance. But:

       2\A. SCENARIO A.  This would be possible only after a “redde rationem” within their dominating classes and a defeat of Pure Rentiers –  which is just unrealistic. Therefore, OECD countries will likely slide into decline during this severe recession  (e.g., see the proposal of US innovation policy by Henry and Manzi 2008). The Schumpeterian innovative effects of the recession will be reaped mainly in Asia. 

       2\B. scenario B. A power reallocation in OECD bourgeoisies and their States, with Finance and Rentiers not fully defeated but downsized (in principle, Wall Street bailout allows for this). In such a case, OECD countries re-specialise in those services and niche manufacturing where they have core competences, and delay their decline – although they cannot reverse it, until they are dominated by Rentiers. This is a key area of neo-Gramscian alliances of the exploited, with middle class Obamian progressive sectors.

3. In the reported Naomi Klein’s view, the Paulson Plan is an act of theft, in order to weaken the US Federal budget for the next 8 years. Therefore,  the resources for  mainstream (again, after the end of the Friedman\Reagan era in the subcrime Tsunami) post-Keynesian policies of crisis management – coordinated internationally. 

4. Of course a Bretton Woods-3 would be optimal, but no one has the power to fix the new rules: therefore the post-global economy will stick now to Bretton Woods-2 disequilibria and their dynamics. Essentially, Asian savings will no more flow towards US investments automatically on the US bonds market, but more and more with FDI and market operations by SWF. The Bretton Woods-2 alliance between US finance rentiers and Chindian industrial capital is beginning to break up. 

Wallerstein’s (2008) FAQ on the political arena of the next decades. 

Which bio-political form will take the subject that will redistribute à la Robin Hood, in order to sourt out of this STRUCTURAL DEFLATION? Populism, centre-left or far right?

Published in: on November 4, 2008 at 2:50 pm  Leave a Comment  
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BeBo won, Italy lost

Italy badly needs reform and won’t get it soon

In the enclosed pdf we report and discuss:

a) productivity per hour 2001-06 growth: 0% Italy, 1.3% Europe15, 2.2% US, >4% South Korea (OECD, WSJ)

b) what we might expect from the incoming BEBE-BOBO government (FT)

c) 103% debt/GDP, at 0.50 spread on Germany will cost more and more, in the financial turmoil (FT)

d) noisefromamerika.org dreams of un Vero Partito Liberale; we, un Autentico Partito Socialista. For the time being, and first time in Italian history, we have no socialist nor communist MP or Sen.

Meanwhile, ALITALIA is bankrupt, with little cash and threatened a stop by the International flight authority. The WSJ was the last newspaper in the world to support Berlusconi, until one month ago: when they paid more attention and discovered he never was a free marketeer, just an artificial monopolist by law.

Air Silvio

(From The Wall Street Journal Europe)
April 4, 2008

It’s rare for a politician to spark a serious crisis before he’s even won office. That’s what Silvio Berlusconi  

[Silvio Berlusconi]

has done with Alitalia. If, as expected, he wins a third term as Prime Minister next weekend, Mr. Berlusconi will deserve every headache Italy’s flag carrier brings him.

Alitalia is bleeding about €1 million a day and may not survive the summer unless restructured. Rome wants to get things started by selling its 49.9% stake in the airline. But Air France-KLM, the only serious bidder, walked away from the table Wednesday.

(…)  EU regulators have ruled out another public bailout.

The unions wouldn’t have had much leverage here if it weren’t for Mr. Berlusconi.  The center-right leader has railed against the Air France-KLM bid during the campaign. He says that Italian businessmen are lining up to help rescue Alitalia – though he refuses to identify them.

Published in: on April 15, 2008 at 11:44 am  Leave a Comment  
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Class and race: remembering ML the King with Michelle Obama

It’s Obama’s New Deal time, girls and boys!

Do not waste a quantum of your energy: preserve it all for the ongoing socialismVSsubcrime fortissima class struggle

ITALIAN ABSTRACT

A partire da una commovente, densa mail di Michelle Obama, per l’anniversario di Martin Luther King, discutiamo qui alcuni temi di un Socialismo Situazionista su sfondo Dampyriano
🙂 Incoraggiati anche dal fatto che il FT weekend DI OGGI ha un articolo così amichevole (benché incolto, ingenuo e disinformato) sul SITUAZIONISMO. SE LO DICE IL FT!
a) L’idea comunicativa situazionista è: perché tutto accada, è sufficiente MISCHIARE CREATIVAMENTE LE CARTE ED I MODULI già esistenti. MA SOPRATTUTTO DARE LE CARTE A TUTTI, APRIRE IL GIOCO DELLA DIFFUSIONE MASSICCIA E CREATIVA, non banalmente imitativa-mimetica à la Girard (apertura che oggi, rispetto al messaggio originale di Guy&C, un’onda lunga fa, si avvale di varie onde di scolarizzazione superiore).
b) C’E’ GIA’ TUTTO ACCESSIBILE O QUASI ACCESSIBILE. Nello iato “quasi” è la ragione per cui tutto il mondo non fa ANCORA come i Tibetani a Lhasa, ma attenzione: c’è una incazzatura colta in giro (sulle origini e gestione della crisi economica, le caste politiche del mondo, mafie e vampiri finanzieri) da far paura.
c) Non occorre scrivere il Manifesto del 2008: è già nelle edicole, ma con barriere linguistiche – basterebbe tradurre in italiano il Financial Times, e – per pareggiare la bilancia commerciale – in tutte e altre N-1 lingue i fumetti italiani di Dampyr. La settimana dopo ci sarebbero barricate in varie capitali del mondo. Dampyr è l’unico testo marxista oggi in circolazione.
b) In base alla teoria sociale mainstream (da Schumpeter a Minsky e Carlota Perez), con una scommessa WE CAN che la stessa teoria sociale ci richiede di fare (anzi saremmo in ritardo di anni: Perez 2002): il New Deal che farà Obama nel quadriennio 2009-12, sarà il pivot di una serie di nuovi assetti e regimi istituzionali di gestione sociale di depressione e repressione (della ripresa “a scendere” della lotta di classe, per disperazione – e non per forza sul mercato del lavoro, che non può esserci, non in generale).

In an intense, deeply moving mail to the Obama people on ML King assassination day (April 5), Michelle calls us to take his flags in our hands. She’s right, and she’s a predestinated too.

This mail has an aura:

In the video: Students at a high school in the Bronx, who had no real interest in their government, have found new hope.

Watch what these kids have to say about politics and race in this country:
Yes, they can
http://my.barackobama.com/yestheycan
Much has changed in this country since Dr. King’s death, and thanks to his life and work we have taken critical strides towards racial equality.
The simple fact that Barack is running a competitive campaign for President is a direct result of Dr. King’s legacy — and this movement for change would be impossible without the support of people of all races, ages, and backgrounds.

Destiny asks the US Democrats to implement a New Deal now: for the depressed, the dominated, the enslaved, the exploited, the raped, the stolen, the vampirized proletariat, the subcrime victim of all the world and the US black and latino victim that cannot American Dream any more. ML King wanted every afro-american family to own her house: how many subcrime victims had his words still in mind, when there Dreams were raped?

Obama’s New Deal. Spinoza time as well: a STRICTLY DETERMINISTIC ROOT EXPLAINS the unbelievable (yesterday it was still Reagan era, ended March 14, 2008: one month ago!!!). WHY THE HELL NOW WE CAN, WE ABSOLUTELY CAN, WE REALLY CAN, SURE WE CAN, AND MATHEMATICALLY – NOT EVEN STOCHASTICALLY?

WE CAN because, when history enters Spinoza regions, social space-time curbs and quickly collapses into just one point. Now, it looks like the impossible- miracle – unpredictable: a New-New Deal by a US President, opening the 3rd M Olympics of power and social relations.

As it happens just now, like a black hole: the direction and pace of social evolution do not depend much upon me, you and even us all any more: we and those bastards, our class enemies. The rentiers extracting in “finance K circuits” (not properly K) trillions $ of surplus value, they even don’t know where it exactly comes from (here comes the difference between today’s rentiers and 2nd millennium entrepreneurial classes). These abrupt democide makers and lifelong serial criminals, through their obscene mass media, have manipulated (along 3 decades) and crafted a mainstream opinion of lower middle classes and proletarians – as if socialisms were now dead, and forever (never herd anything more against History than this PROZAC FOR ANXIOUS RENTIERS; see our page “Arcapedia: which are the Prozac …“), after the necessary decline of red fascisms. Still governing China, nonetheless, and not isolated in the Far East:

a) they sustain, through Bank of China highly profitable (internal monopoly) operations, a lifestyle more than twice its fundamentals – in the metropolis of the now dissolved and expired, former US Empire;

b) they act strategically for their red fascist regime sustainability, and commit all the necessary and required or even slack and superfluous democides, planned in their ROADMAP (from Congolese migrants in their Angola colony to Tibet; even “superfluous” Darfur, where democide’s budget has attained 400,000 victims).

c) Chinese tyrans belong to worldwide extended NETWORKS of division of labour (with mafias and tryads, State and Rentiers bureaucracies, altogether) and COLLABORATION with all sort of DEMO-KILLERS, MONSTERS, RAPERS, RENTIERS AND VAMPIRES. The textbook here is the Italian monthly BD album Dampyr, where all is true: social realities are a mix of anxiety, extorsion, slavery, terror and vampirism; this hyper-realistic and highly documented Vampire series, falls often below reality itself.

d) They call it improperly globalisation. Loretta Napoleoni’s and similar researches have definitely proved, it’s vampirism globalisation: the Russian women were the most liberated in the world (and even in last centuries); a Washington mafia-finance plot has sent them to sell sex in the streets or in Israel brothels. At The Economist they call this Progress: let us send their entire redaction to sell their bodies, in order to proof their Progress Theorem.

If Adam Smith came back, he’d call us to organise Russian prostitutes Trade Unions.

If the international coordination side of 2009-11 New Deals will forget their slavery, they will be Old Deals.

No: socialism is more alive than ever. They are walking dead, they are alreday dead and fucked up, the subcrime rentiers.

By itself, by a pretty long and hyper-complex chain of events, in the actual start of a New Millennium.

By itself, in Spinozian times, with an autonomous momentum (orders of magnitude bigger than the Obama’s one), coupled socio-economic and POLITICAL TSUNAMIS are abating themselves upon all the corrupted, the selfish and the useless CLASSI DIRIGENTI, at the same time and in many countries: be them managers or priests, any rentier or vampire. The precipitation of the real recession, the dramas of hundred millions of families around the world, demand and urge for NEW LEADERS, NEW RELATIONS and dialectics citizens-leaders (e.g., of the type Obama and Axelrod – “progressive” (SIC) bloggers and MoveOn.org).

This is – at first Millennium decade end – an air of the 1960s. And 52 years is, on past average, a Kondratiev long wave: there we are?

In the 1960s economic miracles started producing tensions on, tense labour markets (reversing them FROM DEMAND TO SUPPLY-LED MARKETS, as Adam Smith explained the first).

Big difference is the LABOUR MARKET JUST NOW: Carsic class struggle can emerge on surface, only in a few tight labour markets (e.g. air pilots now in China: ). With 0.9 bn poors in India, almost the same amount in China, and all of them totally integrated and inserted into the world chain of regional labour markets – as never before -, the legacy of 2nd Millennium colonialist 2nd half, is an enslavement of the entire world LF (approximately: 2bn wage earners, indirectly enslaved by labour market globalisation, and a further 10%, i.e. 200 millions SLAVES in the full and literal sense – according to ILO, Genève statistics corrected by our international research center, coord. by Valter Zanin at Padova).

WE CAN! OBAMA’S NEW DEAL

A quotation from last Xmas NYT Matt Bai: the absolute guru, the only one who knows and tells us everything about the DP, and supplies the Obamian boys and girls with a necessary contemporary history perspective (why necessary? since we are agents of Dike and of Necessity, we better know where we come from, or -better- where the wind carrying us comes from). (1)

In an impressive 2005 commencement speech at Knox College, Obama talked about economic transformation. “Instead of doing nothing or simply defending 20th-century solutions, let’s imagine together what we could do to give every American a fighting chance in the 21st century,” he said. “What if we prepared every child in America with the education and skills they need to compete in the new economy? If we made sure that college was affordable for everyone who wanted to go? If we walked up to those Maytag workers and said, Your old job is not coming back, but a new job will be there because we’re going to seriously retrain you and there’s a lifelong education waiting for you?

“Republicans will have to recognize our collective responsibilities,” he went on, “even as Democrats recognize that we have to do more than just defend old programs.”

(1) Three essentials on Matt Bai, a first class political commentator, No.1 on US Democrats:

– his blog: The primary argument, on Sunday’s The NYT Magazine

– his biog, cleverly written by a young and promising Rachel Goldman; she is a NYU student in journalism

– his 2006 book -a must for readers all over the world: The Argument: Billionaires, Bloggers and the Battle to Remake Democratic Politics

post scriptum

See you at next blogpost: I’m going to cast my NECESSARY, SPINOZIAN vote in Italian general elections. I am sorry I can’t vote, by ideological divide, the only one candidate I love: Ms Daniela Santanché. But she’s a black fascist. Being socialist, I am absolutely free to chose best offer (but, in 2006 and 2008, not best candidate: under a semi-fascist Berlusconi’s electoral law) in the moderate right-to- extreme left spectrum. But in my choice set borders, I-we have two twin 20th century taboos written with the blood of Martyrs on my-our subconscious: can’t vote either black or red fascists – the latters marketing their political services under “Communist” labels, or other subtle “cache” sub-labels and trademarks.

Hope the vote will send the correct Tsunami signals and incentives: OFF the Italian political class. Tutti a casa. There was one “last of mohicans” decent MP or Senator, Marco Boato: he was not candidated.

Magnum’s Black power in black-and-white

Today’s Pictures: Black Panthers  Our past coming  on surface. Slate.com today’s pictures: 17  Magnum shots on Black Panthers. The greatest myth of our youth, when we (I mean the 60s-old) had the same  age as the Panthers. Also in Italy,  in the 68 movement we were in love with Angela Davies, now prominent in gender-and-race studies. Someone even fell in love for a young lady whose hair resembled Angela’s …

Published in: on February 27, 2008 at 3:50 pm  Comments Off on Magnum’s Black power in black-and-white  
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SUBPRIME SURPRISES. Today, even Paul Krugman has changed his prediction

Northern Rock branch Digg!  The world cycle has  entered a recession phase  generated in the US last summer, deeply entrenched with the highly unstable nature of current growth and institutions, money and markets (for historical reasons, plus theoretical ones Political Economy illustrated since long: the roots are in Malthus and Marx, Keynes and Kalecki).   Credit and financial markets were obviously the first ones shocked by the subprime crisis, a necessary consequence and dead end of Greenspan’s Fed easy money policy in the 1990s, again since 2003, and a “free market” social engineering experiment in enlarging financial K circulation to a new expropriation domain: stealing wealth from fresh new victims, the poor (first) and the rich all over the world, from Latin ghetto home buyers to Northern Rock clients (see 2007, Oct. 26 Krugman’s blog post A Catastrophe Foretold and my comment upon his revelations, the same day on my blog). But this was only the beginning of the Financial K “conspiracy” (K for Capital).  In October-November 2007, hyper-sensible Baltic Dry index of maritime freights (indexes do have senses, sentiments and even a soul: did you know?) got the blues, reached a cyclical peak and started to decline – you can see the weekly updated graph also by clicking here – meaning that world commodity markets and manufacturing were already affected, not just global finance.When a US report told the services sectors were also declining, Wall Street (- 3% on Tuesday Feb. 4) got also the blues, started panicking and detecting the recession, a quarter after experienced Baltic freight traders. I am not sure this might be tagged text book “globalization” and “rational expectations” alike behaviour, I suggest irrational stupidity. Mr Bernanke never thought to rebuke such irrationalities: on the contrary, he hurried up ensuring he will carry on doing the dirty-hiding dirty job for WS boyz-and-banks, everything is under control, interest rates will go further down (so what ?), after the exhibition of a mix of power-willing and sheer impotence in the base rebate 4.25 to 3. We know things are very different, no one is in control of the recession: see 2 base papers, in January 5 and 8 Prof. Nouriel Roubini’s fundamental blog, (1) and – in French – the contribution by François Chesnais in Carré Rouge – La brèche no.1, 2008, pp. 17-31. Their 3 titles carry the message:

  1. The Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown: The Twelve Steps to Financial Disaster.
  2. Can the Fed and Policy Makers Avoid a Systemic Financial Meltdown? Most Likely Not.
  3. Fin d’un cycle. Sur la portée et le cheminement de la crise financière (End of a cycle. On the dimension and path of the financial crisis).

 Today, even Paul Krugman is changing his prediction. Still resisting the idea, because he knows very well how devastating for the US the crisis might and perhaps will be, he admits a denti stretti that  “the double-bubble nature of the underlying problem — a housing bubble and a credit bubble combined” will be tougher than the 1980 and 1991 recessions. He even talks of a new President getting to the White House (Jan. 2009) in the middle of the storm: if you follow his NYT op-eds and blog (a must), you know that his adamantine intellectual honesty is at work. Being optimistic, I counter-argue that Ms. Clinton\Obama (or Mac Cain) will have to tackle either a long recession in her\his first term, or a full depression in both. My friend and colleague Carlota Perez started the epilogue of a very useful, almost prophetic post- Schumpeterian book by saying: “In June 2002, as this book is going to press, the world is at the turning point. The decisions being taken at this crossroads will determine how long, how deep and how widespread the current recession will be and whether what lies ahead is a depression, a gilded age or a true golden age”. We are back to that point, but the total lack of political-institutional decisions and longterm management (called for by Carlota), in such a crazy world, that it is hard to believe it is still Capitalism, stole us the golden age. Now we have choices and destiny in between a shaky cyclical recession, a decade of depression in the 2010s, and re-inventing Socialism. For empirical facts and analyses, search  my blog, or excerpts from my “blog before the blog” from summer 2007: where I report and discuss how the recession has been read in real time: e.g. by Attac in July 2007, The Economist in October, etc. You’ll perhaps come to the conclusion that Bernanke bosses, the Wall Street boyz: either they are analphabet, or they have no time to read anything, nor even economic news and bulletins. If the Fed wasn’t the Fed (a purely Keynesian matter, discussed also in some comments to Prof. Roubini’s blog) Bernanke, instead of burning billion $ in “rites of winter, then spring and summer”, should have just sent them a Xmas card with a free (0 cost) yearly subscription to: http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm  NOTES _ (1) Prof. Roubini reached a climax when, in a creative Dostò-Shakespearian mood, he described Alan Greenspan’s decision making this way.To Raise or Not To Raise? Reading into Greenspan Hamletian Mind. Aug 29, 2004As Greenspan sips through long reams of obscure economic data (are cardboard production data a good leading indicator of economic activity?) while relaxing daily in his bathtub, he is pondering whether he should increase the Fed Funds rate at the September 21st FOMC meeting. Here is what he is mumbling in his mind, in between a bubble bath and endless wonky economic statistics:”Well, the September 21st decision will be a real tough one, the last one before the elections! I thought that the economy was perking up; and then we hit this Q2 “soft patch”! But is it really a soft patch as we have been claiming in public or the beginning of a deeper deceleration of the U.S. and global economy? Japan is also slowing down (…) and figures from Europe are the usual mixed bag with overall softness and a sub-part Q2 growth of 2%. So, I am usually as Kriptic in public as Delphi’s oracle but on this one I am a bit schizophrenic myself even in private. I haven’t really figured out what to do! I feel like Hamlet: to raise or not to raise?”

Published in: on February 10, 2008 at 4:36 am  Comments (1)  
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Carré Rouge et la Brèche: l’union fait la force

Du site http://www.labreche.ch/RevLB/2007/RevLB01.htm on reproduit aussi dans notre file pdf: carrerouge_labreche la page qui annonce que les revues marxistes Carré Rouge et La brèche se sont unifiés à partir du no.1 de la nouvelle Revue trimestrielle “Carré rouge / La brèche”, qui vient de paraitre. Le formulaire pour s’abonnner est sur le site.

Au sommaire:
Pourquoi cette revue?
Les salarié-e-s s’affrontent à un changement de période qui est le résultat de la rencontre dans le temps de plusieurs développements historiques. Ce constat devra conduire la réflexion portée par cette revue.

Fin d’un cycle. Sur la portée et le cheminement de la crise financière
L’hypothèse défendue dans cet article est que l’économie mondiale se dirige vers une crise d’une certaine importance (…) au moment où les instruments mis en oeuvre par les banques centrales ont commencé à montrer leurs limites, à force d’avoir été utilisés de façon répétée depuis vingt ans.
François Chesnais

Dossier Ecologie politique

L’environnement social et naturel du capitalisme fossile
Elmar Altvater
Atteinte aux processus fondamentaux de la reproduction naturelle. L’écologie de la destruction.
John Bellamy Foster
Agrocarburants. La nouvelle panacée capitaliste