Italian banks in sofferenza

Mr Profumo of arrogance is more and more under attack – and here’s why. His performance is awful:

a) he survived the East Europe catastrophe CERTAINLY not for his merit but only because of  undeserved EXTERNALITIES: the enormous collective, international effort in favour of the EE transitional economies – mainly due to IMF, versus the EU apathy and Angela Merkel’s suicide policy;

b) perspectives are no good at all; a huge power conflict (not just the usual one with Fondazioni: e.g., today’s dagospia.com suggests that even the Lybian Vice-President is getting nervous) is on, against his usual, monocratic UniCredit restructuring model; which just IGNORES WH’APPENED  IN ONE OF THE MOST ACUTE CRISES  in the history of Capitalisms. It only cares about power centralization and growth WITHOUT profits. Fordism from the past Millennium…

IN SUM, “Alex Hyperego Perfume of Arrogance”  is so Superman’s Hyper-Ego that he’s dull; he just doesn’t perceive the deeply changing environment.

In synthesis:

Reproduced from

http://sollevazione.blogspot.com/2010/04/crollano-gli-utili-delle-banche.html

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Published in: on April 10, 2010 at 12:22 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Emma, don Gianni, Giulio and Silvio

Mr Profumo’s  high risk profile is still there (un delirio di onnipotenza da manager-dinosauri del millennio passato: speriamo che la crisi ne spazzi via un bel po’ – a questo serve!).

Although, meanwhile, the Bretton Woods  institutions have spent some hundred billion $ to stop the  CEE domino & save Center – East CBs, the private ones and their Western owners (like  Unicredit). The tragi-comic is that, while they stick to XX Century ultra-neolib (bullshit, or Great Narration if u like it),  the ex-Socialist countries  have been saved only by …

Internationalist Financial Socialism: the 6th  Socialist International, more or less.

AHAHAH! I.e., the XXI Century form of a Communist “spectre of Marx” (Derrida).

They didn’t deserve all that, with our money, stability pursuing and hard work, the bastards: should have tasted the mud of what is pure capitalism at grapes-of-wrath times. Such idiots, still thought-prisoners of their slave socialist past (better IMF to pay shrinks to all of them: value for money), paranoic  ultra-“lib” (sorry to use such a nice name & HIGH thought tradition, Einaudi – Hayek etc.,  for their ideological credos denying even the existence\nature of a global REAL crisis,  and of course not begging pardon for a crazy management of their unsustainable fast growth):

CEE leaders  didn’t deserve a penny, for their thoughts.

But so goes globalisation – what make a difference from begga’ yo’ neibo’ (Keynes’ bestia nera) in the former GreatDep, is that there  is little room for it now, at GreatDep 2 times.

IMF comes to save  East Europe to save Mr Profumo, Italy’s  monster public debt and the € zone stability. By the way, LEX (below)  is right: private debt/GDP ratio is somehow half in Italy compared to the US. What he doesn’t say is that Italy’s sickness has a name: Tremontite.  Only  Italy spends 0 for fiscal stimuli (as if we were …Austrians, no Risorgimento!): Giulio had the courage and determination (I believe he likely ended his fast power career here, because of that) to choose to re-equilibrate what matters most to Berlin, Bruxelles, Frankfurt and London markets, i.e. the public debt/GDP ratio, at a very low GDP level, instead of pushing the GDP earlier, in 2007-2008, in order to allow now for more fiscal manoeuvre (less taxes  and\or  more infrastructures, what China, the US etc. are doing, to match the powerful monetary policies that have succesfully controlled, “un-powered” the stagdeflation cumulative spiral until now).

Yesterday Emma Marcegaglia, speaking in the name of all  the Italian entrepreneurs, expressed all their frank, growth-professional dissent from Tremontite  Malthusanism, but too much A BASSA VOCE to have any impact whatsoever: no blackmail, no electoral boycott (like: we’ll all vote Casini). There is another illness at work here, Berlusconite; Emma has not yet a full power on her  syndicated patrons, even if the Cavaliere consensus  has never been  so low among the Italian bourgeoisie & industrialists  – now beginning to call for a true right and centre-left, out of this stallmate depriving Italy of a guide at harsh times,  while FIAT goes to its worldwar and can manage with  its own  Foreign Affairs, but the small businessmen  ecologies? They are just lost & abandoned to themseleves – i.e. the  ones who were  the Cav. fans until now – but not any more: for elementary,  Darwin-Schumpeterian survival reasons. It’s a POLITCAL divide, from the unmanaged crisis about to decimate the SMEs.

There is an empty space, at the centre  of Italy’s political arena, for a new political force representative of the middle classes, the high bourgeoisie and repressed  high tech animal spirits!!! La DC? A new entry (Montezemolo)?

You measure here ALL the tragic,  historical failure of Berlusconi who WAS really, as he knew  (was told, by  don Gianni) and told,  l’Unto del Signore called for this middle cass re-assembling Mission. But  he miserably failed it: 100%, for a number of reasons. His era already belongs to the past; a mere cohincidence: the death of the great political teologist and teological political scientist, don Gianni (a sublime figure for his teaching and thought, widely appreciated by a transversal audience; and a nitzschean Superman indeed, in his  indomable adventurist impetus:  from “anti-Pope” Card. Siri, to Craxi and the Cavaliere). Unforgettable don  Gianni Baget Bozzo! Riposa in Pace.

LEX
Italy’s economy

Published: May 14 2009 09:17 | Last updated: May 14 2009 20:49

Italy is still sick. Its economy has suffered a series of recessions over the past decade. Yet its labour market remains inflexible and deeply uncompetitive; since 2000, Italian labour costs have risen by 45 per cent. Productivity has also stagnated, while rising annually on average by 1 per cent in the eurozone. As a result, Italian exports – from capital goods to shoes – have suffered particularly badly in this slump. Yet Italy also lacks many features of the credit boom that have ravaged other countries. While government debt is scarily high, at more than 100 per cent of output, household and corporate debt is low. Nor has there been much of a housing boom.

This halfway happy result is reflected in the relative good health of Italy’s two biggest banks, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo. Neither has yet taken government money. Both are funded by large deposit bases. Both are among Europe’s most efficient lenders. And both are still reporting healthy profits. That, though, is where the similarities end. Almost 90 per cent of Intesa’s business is in Italy. UniCredit, by contrast, has sought to escape domestic economic stasis by taking more than half its business abroad. This aggressive foreign expansion, especially into central Europe, has lately taken Unicredit’s share price on a wild ride. (…)

And, from May 11 ft on Poland postponing euro entry –http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e4bf38a8-3e52-11de-9a6c-00144feabdc0.html – Marchionne / Profumo 6-0, 6-0, 6-0.

In one example of mixed signals, Fiat’s factory in southern Poland is churning out small cars for the west European market, and is not planning production cuts.

Subcrime-2 is paneuropean. Attila returns!

http://grapes-of-wrath.ilcannocchiale.it/post/2189528.html

We have this blogpost IN ITALIAN, where we reifly argue why and how a  Paneuropean Subcrime-2 is already on the move, and no one else can stop it, TOO LATE. A number of quite interesting consequences, in a von Hayek Angel sense:

an Angel comes to make you pay your wrongdoings, and also those of the Prime and Finance Ministers, or CEO that came before and believed in so called “neo-liberal” (where liberty has no room) bullshits and irresponsibility,  or “bonanzas” and bubbles.

Austria and Sweden, in the West, will be killed by the Eastern Tsunami; they earned mountains of extra-profits, “bonanza” from the transition to capitalism in their neighbour countries. Now they’ll lose everything, and much more than that.

UniCredit is already a re-nationalised Bank (a Guinness: its Credito Italiano component, will have been rescued in both Great Depressions: 1934 and 2009). Aready,  in the market expectations,  otherwise its Friday closure would not have been  but epsilon.

– Let us bet, on InTrade and elsewere, about the parity  € = $ before … (I wan’t tell you my bet date, but I already gave you here A LOT of info, and based ON FUNDAMENTALS; better: ON DYNAMIC ATTRACTORS; as for the date, monitor InTrade, ’cause I move some small capitals on those future markets, and I might make critical mass…).

INCIPIT of the last grapes-of-wrath post:

Svelato il Mistero di Scilla e Cariddi: perché non si fa il Ponte, e  non è solo colpa di Profumo.

ARIDATECE LA CASSA DI RISPARMIO DI VR-VI-BL-AN !!!!

1- TEMA.

Erano partiti, i Grandi Banchieri Oligopolisti di Austria, Italia e Svezia in testa, alla conquista dei confini est dell’Impero Europeo. Si sono fatti concorrenza oligopolistica della peggior specie  a botte di credito facile: E  FU SUBCRIME-2, quello tutto pan-europeo. Effetto Frontiera Far East Europe.
Noi lo sapevamo da anni come andava a finire, sia all’Est che nelle Banche Vetero-Fordiste e Ribollite dell’Ovest (quelle che hanno legato a quel sasso che rotola  il loro Destino), e:
1) l’incoscienza di Mr. Profumo ci ha sempre fatto tanta tenerezza (una volta ho provato  anche a dirglielo, eravamo in Assindustria a Vicenza, ma lui non mi ha capito ed ha tirato dritto);
2) l’allegria con cui TUTTA l’Europa sta precipitando nel burrone, insieme sapendolo e senza  saperlo, è molto Pirandelliana. La Merkel sta per essere sbalzata di sella solo perché c’è la crisi (il VERO motivo per cui Mc Cain non ha fermato Obama) e si comporta di conseguenza (decidendo le cose  pro domo sua). Non c’è un solo uomo politico in tutta Europa, che pensi all’Europa. NON UNO SOLO: se ora affonda, ed era comunque inevitabile date le premesse, se lo merita.
Come facevamo a saperlo?  Elementare, Engels. Da una traccia d’indagine nei racconti ironici  e divertiti di Marx, specie nelle corrispondenze con Engels sul Tribune (più vive dei suoi Ricardismi teorici, che spesso sbagliano premesse e conclusioni): di  volta in volta, Frontiere  alimentano i cicli espansivi.

Ed il sistema  più instabile che fu mai creato, funambolizza così la sua lunga durata.

Black Monday: the day after

ENGLISH ABSTRACT

Understanding Black Monday. IT IS NO “NEGATIVE BUBBLE”, as silly bulls say.

a) It’s a low fundamentals issue, STUPID !!!

From yesterday on, global markets  are anticipating the real size of the  Main Street’s REAL RECESSION. The  shadow financial  – formal finance meltdown – credit crunch – deep recession chain is working from August 2007,  WITH NO COUNTERBALANCE in terms of policies and rules. Just post factum inadequate interventions on the consequences (even them, chaotic in Europe), and nothing upon the factors: neither Obama, nor McCain of course, are dealing prospectively with them (SEE OUR subcrime key document; in sum, long run deflation from a low global effective demand, hyper – concentration of income and wealth, imbalances and over-unemployment generated by: Reaganism, US private debts system and the post- communism “2nd Great Transformation”).

Prof. Roubini confirms today the title of our blog (which was inspired, last January, by our readings of Prof. Roubini himself):

The global economy is now already in a recession (as GDP is now contracting in all advanced economies and sharply slowing down in emerging market economies). We need now to take steps avoid a global depression.

And today’s rge papers aggregation “Are We Headed Towards a Global Recession?” specifies further:

IMF: The global financial crisis may have “extremely serious” consequences – including famines – in developing countries in Africa and Latin America.

◦ IMF: Signs of deceleration are most pronounced for several Emerging Asian economies that are tightly linked to the global manufacturing cycle: Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan PoC, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, and—to a lesser extent—India.

b) In Europe, an institutional factor adds up. The ususal no-EU keynesian and structural policies issue. The one, that already made EU the only 0 growth world region (Aglietta and Berrebi).

WAKING UP FROM A DREAM: the gloom understanding that European finance is not free from the consequences of the $ 10 tr. global SHADOW FINANCE MELTDOWN. As Breakingnews said yesterday (see quotation in our Black Monday  post),

” It shouldn’t have come to this. A year ago, Europe looked well placed to fend off financial ills. True, the UK had US-style problems with a housing bubble and a big trade deficit, but the eurozone had few bubbles, balanced trade, reasonably prudent governments, a firm central bank and a strong tradition of government guidance and support in banking. 

It turned out, though, that some European banks had dabbled too much in overvalued and overly complex US assets. The authorities have also been slow.”

c) POLICY IMPLICATIONS.

After Reaganism, which blend of Socialism?

We quote from our ” AAA updates on subCrimes” static page, par. 2 on policies.

The Oct. 6 BLACK MONDAY, mainly but not only in  European stock markets (worst from 1987 Black Monday) confirms thet WE WERE RIGHT ON CONDEMNING THE PAULSON – BERNANKE  hurried up plan. Markets don’t care about it, and discount the recession is on and its size is much worst than they expected. Therefore the issue moves to the alternative between:

a) a financial (pseudo-) socialism: once failed again, the finance K party will move to nationalisations and direct State and SWF re-capitalisations … . It would eventually cure the financial meltdown, not the risk of the recession giving rise to a long depression in the 2010s.

b) a Keynesian socialism: redistribute drastically  income and wealth  (through policies, rules and Robin Hood fiscal policies) in order to gradually sort out of the 1990s longrun global deflation (Aglietta and Berrebi, Chesnais).

More in our .pdf –  subcrime key document.

SLATE

TODAY’S PAPERS

Drowned World Tour

By Daniel Politi
Posted Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2008, at 6:29 AM ETIt’s a new week, and the bad news keeps getting worse. “The global financial crisis has taken a perilous turn,” declares the Wall Street Journal. Hopes that the massive bailout package approved by Congress last week would give investors some breathing room were quickly dashed as soon as the markets opened. And pretty much the whole world is feeling the pain. Markets in Asia, Europe, and Latin America closed deep in the red yesterday, a pattern that was repeated in the United States. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 800 points, or 7.7 percent, before rebounding late in the day to close down nearly 370 points, or 3.6 percent. It marked the first time the Dow fell below the 10,000 mark since 2004. USA Today helpfully puts it in perspective and points out that the Dow has lost nearly 30 percent since Oct. 9, 2007.

The New York Times and Washington Post highlight word that the Federal Reserve is considering a plan to buy large amounts of unsecured short-term debt–so-called commercial paper–in an effort to revive the financial system. This “radical new plan” (NYT) would essentially make the Fed “a major funder of a wide range of U.S. businesses facing imminent cash shortages,” explains thePost. While the growing financial crisis is putting pressure on government officials to act, the Los Angeles Times points out that if there’s a clear message from yesterday’s worldwide sell-off it’s that investors are increasingly concerned“that government intervention won’t be enough to stave off a potentially severe global recession.”

CRONACA DI OGGI

TENGONO LE BORSE EUROPEE, ma non recuperano il crollo storico di ieri, mentre a NY il Dow Jones scende di oltre  il 5%, S&P del 5.7%, a conferma della bocciatura del, e sfiducia nell’ affrettato ed elettorale Piano Paulson. I titoli finanziari di NY al loro minimo dal 1997 (solo oggi -25% Morgan Stanley e BoA). In caduta libera le grandi banche inglesi (-50% in 2 giorni  HBOS e RBS), forzando un Piano Straordinario di Gordon Brown tra i $60 e 90 bn. Paul Krugman commenta:

Britain leads the way?

 

According to the FT,Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister, on Tuesday night ordered a massive taxpayer-backed cash injection to rebuild the balance sheets of Britain’s high street banks, in effect part-nationalising the sector at a cost of tens of billions of pounds.

DA LEGGERE OGGI:

Marco Onado su Il Sole 24 ore.

– la autocritica del CEO UniCredit, Aless. Profumo, in una lunga intervista a La Repubblica: abbiamo fatto il passo più lungo della gamba e sottovalutato il financial meltdown. Il fatto: gli azionisti (le fondazioni bancarie) che ricapitalizzano la prima banca italiana, al momento si guardano bene (in piena crisi e tentativo di rilancio, risanamento) dal dimissionare Profumo (responsabile di una strategia di crescita del tutto azzardata e FUORI TEMPO rispetto al ciclo mondiale, come lui stesso e’ costretto ad ammettere POST FACTUM), ma lo mettono SOTTO TUTELA. Escludendo le liquidazioni, nel 2007 e’ il manager più pagato d’Italia.

– DA IERI, ripreso oggi in Italia su La Stampa, l’incredibile udienza parlamentare di Mr Fuld PADRE-PADRONE di Lehman Bros (che i nostri lettori conoscono MOLTO BENE).

– IERI SERA ottimo dibattito alla morente LA 7 (che la Telecom vuol chiudere), all’Infedele, con parterre de rois che includeva dei Grandi come Marcello DeCecco ed un lucido, mordace Tony Negri. Peccato che, dopo averla tenuta a bagnomaria con Tronchetti Provera, ora la chiudano di brutto. L’ultima voce libera, troppo ose’  per la thanato-politica cavalier-leghista.

ORA LEGALE 13: il punto.

MERCATI VOLATILI. Abortisce un primo tentativo di rimbalzo delle borse europee in mattinata, che dura appena un’ora. A mezzogiorno nuova spinta verso il positivo, MENO CHE  A  MILANO. Qui Piazz’affari appesantita specie da una  UniCredit senza pace. Le ammissioni a denti stretti di Profumo (intervista cit.) non rassicurano molto: costui ha sbagliato proprio tutto,  con una iper-crescita non proporzionale alla capitalizzazione, in tempi di deflazione mondiale strutturale e di evidente (ad ogni osservatore onesto) preparazione della catastrofe della shadow finance, con tutte le conseguenze che oggi si dipanano.

Alle 13: Milano sullo 0%, resto Europa + 1%. UniCredito -4.4%, Telecom – 5,5% e  sotto gli E 0,9, Impregilo – 7%, e sospesa per ribasso Tiscali (-15%).

Nel pomeriggio escono i 3 Nobel della Fisica: gli svedesi hanno fregato il Gabibbo, e dato il Nobel a 2 giapponesi che avevano sviluppato la sua scoperta. Che figura di merda ci fanno a stoccolma!

CHIUSURA BORSE

Come avevamo previsto, oggi nessun nuovo tonfo ne’ recupero dell’abbassamento fundamentals-driven di ieri, LUNEDI NERO. A Milano (-0 .6%) problemi specifici:

– LA POPOLARE continua a tonfare (qualcuno deve sapere perche’),

– UniCredit insensibile alle dotte auto-critiche EX POST, perde un altro 4% perche’, mentre ieri S&P aveva mantenuto il rating stabile, questo pomeriggio Moody l’ha abbassato.

– Pianto greco del CFO Telecom: a queste quotazioni frazionali sotto €0.9, improbabile si facciano vivi gli  investitori potenziali, come SWF libici, Q8 e russi.