Hell Street plunging again in devil’s bubblesmoke…-)

DID WALL STRETS TURN AGAIN TO A HELL STREET, or never stopped to be hellish?

“UP THE RALLY HILL, THERE’S A SISIPHO’S HELL” the City blues says.

A tale of  W street and the W recession

zerohedge

New post: Equities: Reaching The Danger Zone http://tinyurl.com/y94y8h7 /Monday 12 April, 5 pm GRT

Look at this elementary graph, that you can easily redo yourself on the 1st page of today’s wsj oL, even without being a subscriber – as I must be professionally.

Well, not only the bigger share of the dead bubble appeared in Wall Street, much more than in the RoW (Europe, BRICS and Japan: aggregated and implicit here, in the difference between the two curves – SIMPLICITY and SYNTHESIS matter, for a 1st look).

But, since from the 2009 policy-driven rallys, devil’s smokes reappear again at Hell St.; much before a recovery of Mean St. I don’t think there is any  serious debate about the fact that AT LEAST Hell\Wall St. is already in a new bubble: with all the self-evident, dramatic implications of such a tenet. The analytical-policy complex debate (where perspectives, schools and interpretations of the empirical facts necessarily diverge, before looking for a new convergence focus and a relative ricomposition of the profession) is about how much such a New Bubble is a matter of “CONGIUNTURA o STRUTTURA”, SR or LR in its very nature – i.e. the relevant dynamic forces behind this unsustainable model: of overvaluation of Western assets, at the price of a permanent Eastern overgrowth. My position is that the LR bubble is evident, and actually was never fully dried up; while we are about to enter also an additional SR one, starting from some asset markets. La musica  non cambia.

A lot of work for the world  Obamas, their teams and 1st of all the invisible college of CBs that saved us from another 1929\31 – until now. At a price.

According to the two distinct (but a bit overlapping: GLI ESTREMI SI TOCCANO SEMPRE) Austrian and post-Schumpeterian (evolutionary) schools: AT THE PRICE of  repressing the “Invisible Foot” who makes room for a New Wave of innovations and their bundles. No foot, no room.

As for the congiuntura, there are all the usual caveats about the VWL (VolksWagenLite) shapes of the recession in the different macro-regions of the world, and 20 days ago I listened to such an interesting breakfast time (03/25/2010 09:34) twitting as:

@zerohedge New post: Is Something Big In The Market Coming? http://tinyurl.com/y97jayc“.

The twitting and the post were introducing to an acute FINALE by David Rosenberg (Breakfast_with_Dave_032510.pdf), concluding that markets are signalling turnarounds

And lastly, there is no V-recovery anywhere, except in the Fed-prodded stock market.

Even that bastion might not be firm for longer. In fact, today at early dawn here in Verona, the same little Spring bird awakes me via TweetDeck sounds to tell me:

zerohedge

IMF Prepares For Cataclysm, Expands Backup Facility By Half A Trillion For “Contribution To Global Financial Stability” http://bit.ly/a4vMeh

With linguistic determinism, the philosophical WordPress blog cracking process distills down here such a nice continuation: the-gates-of-hell-open!!!

… what if the demons from Hell decided to enter Wall Street and other business sectors so as to better manipulate and corrupt society? And thus Hell, Inc. was born.

We are at a more ground level here, and we are looking at the devils in the markets details.

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Obama New Deal, phase 1

Feb. 17 update – The final stimulus bill allocates $ 790.6 bn:  the CBO estimates tax cuts will amount to $ 288.5 bn and public expenditures about $ 500 bn (wsj) for a total est. cost of $ 787 bn. Today the President signed the bill and wrote us

enzo fabio —

Today, I signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law.
This is a historic step — the first of many as we work together to climb out of this crisis — and I want to thank you for your resolve and your support. (…)
I’ve assigned a team of managers to oversee the implementation of the recovery act. We are committed to making sure no dollar is wasted. But accountability begins with you.
That’s why my administration has created Recovery.gov, a new website where citizens can track every dollar spent and every job created. We’ll invite you and your neighbors to weigh in with comments and questions.
Our progress will also be measured by the tens of thousands of personal stories submitted by people who are struggling to make ends meet. If you haven’t already, you can read stories from families all across the country:

http://my.barackobama.com/yourstories

Your stories are the heart of this recovery plan, and that’s what I’ll focus on every day as President. With your continued support, we’ll emerge a stronger and more prosperous nation.

Thank you,
President Barack Obama

On the eve of the 200-Charles Darwin Day, the US House and the Senate have finally agreed on the mega-stimulus package, which President Obama might already sign next Monday,  February the 15th, i.e. 25 days after entering the White House (1/4 of the early 100 days, when the Beauty versus the Beast – Apocalypse Now – fight will B decided upon in the short term).

Mainstream economists, with whom this time we are tempted to almost agree once (but we have other priorities, since it is not OUR problem to save Capitalisms, but their victims), converge with the great, sublime Paul Samuelson (self-defining himself a Centre-Left, moderate Keynesian), by saying that some moderation and “watering down” (in the Congress revision) of Adm. Obama’s proposals is a first best, since  -e.g. – a demand – only perspective  is balanced with less unilateral supply-side  considerations as well (on this, our friend Michele Boldrin is writing quite important and interesting, fresh things on NfA – Noise from America blog, since early this year; we will discuss them, here and on NfA at length, soon).

Let us say that this is the state-of-the-art in academic Political Economy, and it is symbiotic with what happened in these hard Congressional fights about the final compromise, during the last weeks. One day, just symbolically Sen. Mc Cain presented a  motion to cut the stimulus to half. It comes out with a great momentum, a variety of tools and targets (see the Summary below).

A HISTORIC BILL, starting the Obama New Deal long series, in the next few years.

Sources:

http://www.slate.com/id/2211145?wpisrc=newsletter

Congress Makes a Deal

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123436825805373367.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

Congress Strikes $789 Billion Stimulus Deal

Historic Bill Would Spur Road Building, Give Businesses Tax Breaks, Expand Broadband Access; Final Passage Expected Soon

wsj summary table:

Focal Points of Stimulus Package

Key goals and what indicators to use to gauge success.

Business confidence
Steps: Tax breaks for businesses, appropriations.
Measurement of success: Stock market results and management surveys.

Low income/unemployment aid
Steps: Benefit checks, foodstamp increases, health insurance assistance, Medicaid.
Measurement: Benefit rates

Consumer spending
Steps: Tax breaks to workers.
Measurement: Retail spending, consumer-confidence surveys.

Job creation
Steps: Infrastructure spending, aid to states.
Measurement: Unemployment.

Economic Growth
Steps: Spending, tax breaks.
Measurement: GDP.

Please also note that:

The stimulus accord is a major win for the high-tech industry, which will receive billions of dollars in subsidies to expand broadband access to rural and other underserved areas and a huge infusion of funds to computerize health-care records.

The latter is a very important point, since it marks much more, than just Silicon Valley getting repaid for the EARLY support to “Sen. Nobody” (see on this Giuliano da Empoli 2008, already a classic and comprehensive book on Obama, in Italian; and our various, often updated  static pages on Obamology in http://arcapedia.wordpress.com/).

On the other hand, it is a strong counter-tendency, a counter-factual to the MARKET SELECTION PARADIGM – e.g., theorised in Italy by the no.1 telecom expert, prof. Enzo Pontarollo.  He argues that it is not so bad that the Schumpeterian effect (sometimes called “The Invisible Foot”) and the credit crunch crisis SELECT among very expensive digital highway plans, and allocate credit only to the more rentable ones, where effective demand will repay faster, at least a part of the infrastructure investment.

This is such a complex, multi-dimensional issue. Let us just say  this, as a complement and further qualification to the important, and  theoretically well-rooted Prof. Pontarollo’s argument.

Japan (as far as I know,  the main great and still powerful State doing this) usually doesn’t bother much about “the digital market” plans selection – perhaps also because Japan’s regional economies have been levelled-up during the last half century, and suffer much more from congestion than regional, or rural\urban imbalances. They just shape and anticipate effective market demand years, or even a decade before, laying down  futuristic cooperative-public digital highways (namely in the New Generation Networks, lately).

But if the Nippon State is  now on the defensive, such programs will be delayed for many years, and this anticipatory effect will be lost. In a strong “neo- Keynesian & neo- Schumpeterian” mixed, eclectic and PRAGMATIST (“Nudge“) approach, the Obama’s New Deal starts now doing what Japan has problems to keep up to. This is another Invisible Foot effect: not across regions but across Nations: the US just elected Obama, while the Nippon political system is in search of a “2nd Republic” trajectory since 20 years ago, with no viable, longterm solution yet.

They desperately need either a Berlusconisan, or an Obamasan.

This stimulus Bull hitech component, has little to do with FDR, and we are happy about that: since you know (or at least, regular blog readers do) that we fully agree from the left with the “right” critique to FDR  –  stemming from the careful Amity Shlaes historic reconstruction of what really happened during THAT New Deal 8o years ago (on this precise point, we take a small bit of distance, a degree of freedom  from Obama’s public image and self-representation). In any case, ce n’est qu’un debut.

doctor doom’s 2009

Nouriel Roubini has now a weekly column on Forbes, where some synthesis is made of the much richer rge material (unique, very deep and informative news “clusters”; regular blogs or interventions by some of the best macroeconomists). This is an invitation to read regularly, as an amateur, both “Doctor Doom” Forbes column, and the free sections of rge-monitor.com (while a professional economist is obliged to subscribe to rge):

Doctor Doom

A Global Breakdown Of The Recession In 2009

Nouriel Roubini, 01.15.09, 12:01 AM EST

Forecasting pain, from the U.S. to Australia.

pic

With the industrial world already in outright recession and the emerging world navigating toward a hard landing (growth well below potential), I expect global growth to be flat (around -0.5%) in 2009.

This will be the worst global recession in decades as the fallout of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression took a toll first on the U.S. and then–via a variety of channels–on the rest of the global economy.

Here is a global breakdown of my forecast.

The United States economy is only halfway through a recession that started in December 2007 and will be the longest and most severe in the post-war period. U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout all of 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5%.

One last look at 2008 will reveal a very weak fourth quarter with GDP growth contracting about -6% in the wake of a sharp fall in personal consumption and private domestic investment.

I see the real GDP growth contraction playing out through the year as follows: first quarter 2009: -5%; second quarter 2009: -4%; third quarter 2009: -2.5%; fourth quarter 2009: -1%–adding up to a yearly real GDP growth of -3.4% for the U.S. in 2009.

This forecast is much worse than the current consensus forecast seeing a growth recovery in the second half of 2009; I also predict significantly weak growth recovery–well below potential–in 2010. (…)

The latest cyclical upswing in the Eurozone was largely driven by a temporary but powerful boost to domestic investment from disappearing risk premia in the aftermath of the adoption of the single currency and by external demand from a buoyant world economy.

Both demand sources fizzled out by the second half of 2008, leaving the Eurozone as a whole and its largest members exposed to diverging deleveraging patterns in the face of suboptimal EMU-wide automatic fiscal stabilizer mechanisms.

The latest record-low readings of leading and sentiment indicators point to a severe recession ahead in 2009 that shapes up to be worse than the 1992-93 crisis. For the Eurozone, I expect a below-consensus contraction in real GDP of around -2.5% (…)

We believe China will experience a hard landing in 2009, with growth unlikely to exceed 5%, a sharp slowdown from the 10% average of the last five years. The reversal of capital flows and high credit cost will pull down India‘s growth significantly, to around 5% in 2009 from an estimated 6% in 2008.

END  OF NOURIEL’S QUOTATION

This graph, now in the front page of the Greenberg geo-eco think thank of the CFR (where we always read two of our favourite blogs: Follow the money by the International Economics “Sherlock Holmes” Brad Setser (*); and the delightful political incorrectness of  Amity Shlaes’ Forgotten man: healthy antidotes to FDR or BO’s santifications), is quite informative.

RAQ (Rarely Asked Q.) Did u know, before having looked at it, that the 2nd NewEconomy bubbbbbble (2003-07)  was much more  pervasive cross-country, than the so much advertised 1st one (1994-2001)?

2growths_oneline_cfr

(*) We are much more than friends, in brotherhood from decades with Otaviano Canuto, himself an rge blogger, Catou and all their beautiful family. Nonetheless, our esteem of Otaviano as an economist made a big jump upward a few weeks ago, when we discovered, in an exchange of comments on a recent post, he had … something to teach to Brad. Before, we believed anything alike impossible, i.e. beyond human limits.

Il crollo della borsa di NY nel 2009

Dal Bollettino RED.O ormai quasi pronto, anticipiamo oggi uno stralcio. Sono i nostri auguri di Buon Anno, senza cattiveria ne’ pessimismo. Occorre conoscere bene la Bestia apocalittica (il Capitale Finanziario ferito a morte, ma ancora sotto la tenda ad ossigeno del SOCIALISMO FINANZIARIO somministrato dalla tojka Bernanke – Geitner – Paulson, che al 20 gennaio perde solo un socio), con cui combatteremo corpo a corpo le nostre battaglie biopolitiche per  tutto il 2009; ed oltre.

Chi avesse letto i nostri blogpost di giugno (e vedo dalle statistiche che i visitatori se li rileggono con gusto), non avrebbe perso una lira su titoli Lehman Bros. Avrebbe persino avuto tutto il tempo di ricontrattare assicurazioni, pensioni integrative INDICIZZATE Lehmans (la fregatura peggiore, perche’ il “cliente”  non lo sa nemmeno: le associazioni dei consumatori hanno predisposto delle lettere standard per chiedere alle assicurazioni-banche una informativa in proposito).

APPROFONDIMENTO\1

IL GRAFICO DI SHILLER: 108 anni di p/e depurati dal ciclo

p\e ratio depurato, S&P 1900-2008Fig. 3. NYSE: p\e ratio depurati dal ciclo, S&P 1900-2008. Variazione dalla media secolare.

Da SHILLER, l’attento studioso delle bolle: riprodotto da Authers,  il 9 novembre nella sua rubrica sul ft, e ripreso il 25 nov. su

https://enzofabioarcangeli.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/eratio.gif

NOTABENE: IL VENTENNIO 1990-2008 DI SOPRAVVALUTAZIONE DELLE AZIONI e quindi dei  p/e,   NON HA PRECEDENTI, PER DURATA ED INTENSITA’.

Nel grafico si notano 2 valli profonde, attorno al 1920 e 1980 (quando arriva Reagan), e questa immensa montagna con vetta nel 2000 (a primavera di quell’anno viene giù il NASDAQ, ma il NYSE  – cui si riferisce il grafico – tiene ancora per qualche mese). La massa di tale montagna e’ tale, da spostare massicciamente in alto il p/e medio secolare che fa da benchmark, livello 0 del grafico.

ANALISI

IN RETROSPETTIVA

Avendo la bolla-1 Greenspan – New Gilded Age  raggiunto un Guinness nel 2000, superiore al 1929, in una situazione deflattiva (Aglietta) il mercato avrebbe dovuto:

i) scendere brusco, ed ora potremmo essere ad un minimo (- 0,5) da cui risalire con politiche globali keynesiane (monetarie e fiscali) reflattive.

ii) Invece la bolla-2 Greenspan dal 2003, ha creato un  falso-piano privo di punti d’appoggio. Il mancato aggiustamento in tempo reale, ha compresso energie  deflazioniste immense (come caricare una molla). Ora il crollo di Borsa e’ già, e sarà per un buon paio d’anni drammatico, per scendere sino a -1 circa.

IN PROSPETTIVA

La nostra ipotesi di lettura e’ che, uscendo – come ben sanno gli operatori – da un ventennio ECCEZIONALE, UNICO (1990-2008) di “sopravvalutazione” dei titoli mondiali quotati su NY, gli effetti concatenati originati dal buco nero subcrime (doppio sboom, delle bolle immobiliare e shadow finance) portano “naturalmente”, per dinamica sistemica (vedi Soros 2008: i sistemi si avvitano in giù), ad un decennio 2009-20 di valori “sottovalutati”:  non rispetto ai profitti attesi e “fondamentali”, ma alla media storica.

Quindi non e’ questo il momento, non e’ la fase di LP:

A)  per pensioni integrative market-based: sono un bidone (somministrato con incoscienza ed insipienza da Padoa Schioppa, Sartor, e Triplice Sindacale avida di rendite);

B) per schemi di azionariato operaio (salvo in imprese di successo): non perche’ siano una proposta “non marxista”, saint-simoniana o prudhoniana (questo sarebbe un punto a loro favore); non e’ il momento. Il wsj dice che in Borsa giocando non short ma sul trend, si guadagna sui 20 anni: si, ma solo in quelli “giusti”, appena passati. Altrimenti occorre attendere 40 anni!

il cannocchiale

LAVORARE MENO, LAVORARE TUTTI

 

sacconi-maurizio

Maurizio già in posa papale.

Crozza:  sei omonimo, studia la sua gestualità

ONDA MERKEL (LAVORARE MENO, LAVORARE TUTTI) IN ITALIA: ACCORDO UNANIME. IN ITALIA PARE SI FARA’ CON ACCORDI AZIENDALI, ma con le risorse pubbliche della Cassa CIG  (anche la Merkel  “paga” lei il 5° giorno, sempre in ipotesi). 

Cosi si potrebbe contenere il milione di posti a rischio nell’industria (non si sa quanti nei servizi: 2  MILIONI? farebbe -1/7 dell’occupazione, quindi una settimana corta GENERALIZZATA  potrebbe riassorbire il calo di domanda di F-L), se  e solo se il governo sarà messo in corner, e costretto a fare A GENNAIO almeno un primo (di una lunga serie) STIMOLO FISCALE DI EMERGENZA (i soldi si trovano anche senza alzare il deficit: basta non fare come Tremonti in Finanziaria, che ha tagliato tutte le spese del 10%, senza dar caccia ne’ ad evasori  – OGGI  AD UN MAX STORICO – ne’ a sprechi). 

Noi pensiamo che con il cinico e digiuno di economia Tremonti al Tesoro, l’Italia sia fottuta: LA CRISI SARA’ TERRIBILE, UNA MACELLERIA SOCIALE, E DEGENERERA’ NEL SANGUE. L’abbiamo argomentato a josa. Ma i giochi sono aperti.

Con la  BOLLA SPECULATIVA “Merkel” scoppiata da 2 gg., e’ la prima volta che in Italia si prendono sul serio le politiche keynesiane, senza le quali l’Italia s’africanizza nella stag-deflazione.

Qualificano la loro adesione alla linea Merkel, lanciata in Italia da Sacconi ed il segr. CISL  Bonanni (Maurizio sorpassa con questa mossa rapida ed intelligente Brunetta, nei futures su chi sarà il prossimo Premier, rovinando all’improvviso mesi di paziente e duro lavoro di Renato):

– Epifani segr.  CGIL:

—- purche’  sia in un quadro di garanzie, che includa i precari. NB: i giovani precari sono 3 milioni in Italia, ossi ail 15% della forza lavoro, Da dati ISTAT eisulta che mezzo milione si siano precarizzati, sparendo del L regolare.

—- nessuna furbizia: non sia un alibi per non sostenere i consumi,

-Bombassei vice-P CONFINDUSTRIA:

—- dev’essere temporanea e  non può essere estesa a tutti (ndr: ma allora non funziona)

—-  accompagnata da altre misure (ossia la stessa condizione keynesiana di Epifani;  poi, come evidenziato dal nostro liveblogging di ieri, una loro richiesta specifica e’ la detassazione degli utili reinvestiti).

Con queste  importanti qualificazioni, tutto l’arco politico e sociale e’ d’accordo, OCCORRE PASSARE AI  FATTI. La Repubblica:  in un’azienda di Franciacorta, si fanno già 19 ore all’80% del salario.

Quanto alla corsa alla sua successione aperta ufficialmente ieri dal Cavaliere Minimo (trattato a pesci in faccia sul Presidenzialismo da TUTTI: OGGI E’ IL GIORNO DELLE UNANIMITA’ – pare la Svizzera), si può notare che se la giocano la pattuglia dei 3 ministri socialisti: il Cav. ha però parlato di giovani ministri escludendo Tremonti che gli fa ombra, ma farà presto una brutta fine – travolto dallo Tsunami Stag-deflazione. Restano i miei amici Maurizio e Renato, cresciuti nel PSI veneziano-trevigiano di Gianni De Michelis, ai miei tempi.

La Stampa

Settimana corta, l’apertura della Cgil

Epifani favorevole: «Ma no alle furbizie» Sacconi: distribuire su più persone il minore carico di lavoro

ROMA

Lavorare meno, lavorare tutti: la proposta della settimana corta e dei contratti di solidarietà lanciata dal ministro del Welfare incontra il favore di sindacati e imprese. Seppur con qualche distinguo e precisazione sulle modalità di applicazione degli strumenti di solidarietà indicati da Maurizio Sacconi, le parti si dichiarano disponibili a un confronto con il Governo su tutte le forme di tutela dell’occupazione in questa fase di crisi economica.

Il piano prevede la possibilità di andare in cassa integrazione per una parte della settimana e lavorare per la parte restante, secondo un principio di rotazione della Cig che consente di spalmare un minor carico di lavoro su più persone, a differenza di quella a zero ore e di quella ordinaria. Dal leader della Cgil, Guglielmo Epifani, arriva un sì a patto che settimana corta e contratti di solidarietà «siano inseriti in un quadro di tutele che evitino il distacco dei lavoratori dai posti di lavoro, non escludano i lavoratori precari e non costituiscano una furbizia per evitare al soggetto pubblico di investire tutte le risorse necessarie».

G 20: the real start is in April – RIMANDATI AD APRILE

Photo: January 30, 2007. REUTERS/Jason Reed

The Times cartoon. © Peter Brooks

0811_st-barack

QUASI BOCCIATI, RIMANDATI AD APRILE.

ITALIAN SUMMARY.

ASPETTANDO B.Ob. LA TELA DI RAGNO DI GORDON BROWN, laburista annacquato.

LI PENSAVAMO BOCCIATI; INVECE SON SOLO RIMANDATI AD APRILE: e’ un risulato magro ma sopra le aspettative.

Il G20 era atteso come  un buco nell’acqua, invece ha sorpeso, pur senza entusiasmare affatto:

– da un lato, ultimo grido liberista del 2° Millennio, seppellito nel marzo-settembre 2008

– dall’altro, un primo vagito del nuovo millennio Chindiano che avanza: focus sulla regolazione forte (?) della Finanza, anche se .. leggete il testo finale integrale: final statement. Le rating agencies? Devono … registrarsi, e’ tutto. Ma erano ben note e nelle dita di una mano!  Niente guillotine per  il loro top management, non una notte in prigione e nemmeno a casa senza liquidazione. Il FT le aveva trovate con le dita nella marmellata: usavano modelli TRUCCATI per valutare il rischio, lo sapevano e coprivano per mesi e mesi, continuando a barare.  Al confronto, il Watergate era una cosa da educande.

– Occhio Obama: col gradualismo alla Gordon Brown non si va da nessuna parte, si lasciano tutti gli attori e le istituzioni-chiave al loro posto. CI VUOLE UNA RIVOLUZIONE (al momento senza nome, così sarà più creativa ed al passo coi problemi).

 

AND THE WINNER IS …

Surprise surprise: Gordon Brown again, the win-win guy of global summits! 

For  a sorting out lame-duck (GWB, US), another one (GB, GB) stays with us forever. Gordon Brown had reached below zero poll evaluations, for his treacherous delaying tactics on Northern Rock: oh, dear! He was so shy and  timid (Blair complex?),  before statalism became fashionable again (the real Millennium cut is in 2008, either March or September). But now he’s the star, at least before B.Ob. enters the stage.

wsj

 

Brown Wins Reform Demands

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown appeared to win many of his key demands to reform the global regulatory system and restart the Doha round of trade talks at the meeting of G-20 

As expected by everybody, lame duck GWB did not get anything from  Sat. 15th G20 meeting. Markets didn’t bet a buck on such a meeting, so perhaps they will not fall down dramatically on Monday. The G20:

+ has already become a focal institution (as Gordon Brown has underlined), and will have some work to do next year, particularly in the next meeting before April 30. First of all, verify whether the March deadline (see G20 document below) has been met for the emergency Global Finance re-regulation. By now the G20:

did not start any coordination of fiscal stimuli (from now on  the focus of policies), nor of  monetary and credit policy guidelines; in such a way, national and (at most) regional policies are already ending up: either  in “beggar your neighbour”; or becoming a ground for knittimg new international alliances: e.g., see the rge discussion on China’s fiscal plan:

the timing of the Chinese package is likely influenced both by domestic demands, and the external outlook. The timing before the G20 heads of state is clearly significant.

 

The hypothesis sounds right to me. China is trying to knit alliances around the US, to decouple.

+ dealt mainly with the financial meltdown, with a gradual approach (not mentioning the roots of today’s problems);

+ further work might follow, namely in the FSF coordinated by Mr Draghi, which should include BRIC and deal with change in  Bretton Wood institutions;

  –  no real finance reform, nonetheless: look at RATING AGENCIES (perhaps the most bastard subcriminals, the FT found them conspiring and treaching). They just need to … register !!!  Fuckoff.

 Pleaded for pursuing an “Open Global Economy”, AS IF it was not a dead walking: sooner or later bailout protectionism will give the floor to trade protectionism and capital controls; we bet the deadline of resurrecting the Doha Round by December  will NOT work;

apparently ignored the risks of an open deflation, signalled by the lack of response of gold and stock markets to the massive national rescue plans.  

∑ – Final G20 mark: – 5 + 3 = -2.  Only such a nerd as G Brown gets good marks! The other pupils most come back in the April session, with new essays 2B evaluated.

Even if its financial and institutional (IMF and WB) plan had to be timely applied, this would not change much of the current severe global recession by insufficient demand, on the verge of degenerating into a low consumption-led depression in the US – on behalf of the irresponsibility and laissez faire of Pres. Bush and his staff, even after the subcrime bubble imploded in August 2007, i.e. 15 months ago: 15 months lost, waiting for Godot. Luckily Godot is about to come from Chicago. This is why Russia asked to recall the G20 soon, and got it.

The real test will be whether their minimalist approach to focus upon an immediate stabilisation of financial markets will get any result soon. Dedline: March 31. This is the core of their long final statement:

9. We commit to implementing policies consistent with the following common principles for reform.

• Strengthening Transparency and Accountability: We will strengthen financial market transparency, including by enhancing required disclosure on complex financial products and ensuring complete and accurate disclosure by firms of their financial conditions. Incentives should be aligned to avoid excessive risk-taking.

• Enhancing Sound Regulation: We pledge to strengthen our regulatory regimes, prudential oversight, and risk management, and ensure that all financial markets, products and participants are regulated or subject to oversight, as appropriate to their circumstances. We will exercise strong oversight over credit rating agencies, consistent with the agreed and strengthened international code of conduct. We will also make regulatory regimes more effective over the economic cycle, while ensuring that regulation is efficient, does not stifle innovation, and encourages expanded trade in financial products and services. We commit to transparent assessments of our national regulatory systems.

 Promoting Integrity in Financial Markets: We commit to protect the integrity of the world’s financial markets by bolstering investor and consumer protection, avoiding conflicts of interest, preventing illegal market manipulation, fraudulent activities and abuse, and protecting against illicit finance risks arising from non-cooperative jurisdictions. We will also promote information sharing, including with respect to jurisdictions that have yet to commit to international standards with respect to bank secrecy and transparency.

 Reinforcing International Cooperation: We call upon our national and regional regulators to formulate their regulations and other measures in a consistent manner. Regulators should enhance their coordination and cooperation across all segments of financial markets, including with respect to cross-border capital flows. Regulators and other relevant authorities as a matter of priority should strengthen cooperation on crisis prevention, management, and resolution.

• Reforming International Financial Institutions: We are committed to advancing the reform of the Bretton Woods Institutions so that they can more adequately reflect changing economic weights in the world economy in order to increase their legitimacy and effectiveness. In this respect, emerging and developing economies, including the poorest countries, should have greater voice and representation. The Financial Stability Forum (FSF – directed by Mr Draghi, NdR) must expand urgently to a broader membership of emerging economies, and other major standard setting bodies should promptly review their membership. The IMF, in collaboration with the expanded FSF and other bodies, should work to better identify vulnerabilities, anticipate potential stresses, and act swiftly to play a key role in crisis response. 

Today’s rge is full of interesting clusters on G20 related issues:

  •  G20 Nations Agree More Concerted Efforts, Regulatory Coordination
  •  Will Coordinated Policy Interventions Prevent a Global Recession?
  •  Towards A New Financial Order: Regulatory Issues Tackled At The G-20
  •  Liquidity Trap Possibility: What’s the Solution?
     G20 Nations Debate Coordinated Fiscal Stimulus
     Economists Debate: What Should Be Accomplished at the G20?

Obama New Deal: in marcia a passi sicuri

ENZITORIALE – LAMPO no. 0

(editoriale di Enzo)

Addì  10 novembre (Borse contente per  il mega-piano fiscale cinese, credo, ma il peggio per loro addavenì; “follow the gold” e vedi che siamo già in deflazione al trotto, poi passerà al galoppo).

Oggi, sotto il titolo de L’Unità campeggia, in bianco su rosso:

“Una seria agenda progressista, chiamiamola pure un nuovo new Deal – non soltanto e’ economicamente possibile, ma e’ esattamente ciò di cui l’economia necessita”

Paul Krugman, p. Nobel, NYT op-ed, 8 novembre.

E’ una soddisfazione pazzesca, un indiretto riconoscimento dell’asse culturale di de(e)pre(ce)ssion; e. per il nostro modesto lavoro, the right reward:

1) che l’abbia detto Paul, il Maestro, e

2) rilanciato con intelligenza Concita, nel suo giornale ringiovanito di vitamine Obamiche.

Imperdibile oggi, nell’inserto dello stesso giornale, il rifacimento satirico della LEGGENDARIA Sergent Pepper’s copertina, con gli Obamiani de noantri.

Questo sito e blog di contro-informazione economica, e’ nato in febbraio nel momento stesso in cui, da una benevola (benign) neutralità tra Barack e Hillary, siamo passati ad un attivo sostegno al  fianco di BO, quando la partita era ancora tutta aperta, sulla base non del suo messaggio che già conoscevamo, ma del nostro messaggio ed INTUIZIONE (DALLA DISPERAZIONE DI UNA CRISI SENZA VIA D’USCITA PER I LAVORATORI) – modestamente:

Obama New Deal

(cercheremo ora contatti con David Axelrod, il geniale Michiganiano, per farci assumere …).

That’s all, folk

Published in: on November 10, 2008 at 7:04 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Vince l’abbronzato, il mondo si meticcia ma le Borse potrebbero sparire lunedi 17 novembre

dancing-with-the-stars

best cartoon: St. Barack, by Peter Brookes (The Times)

Please note the tiny  GWB in the cartoon. © Peter Brooks

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00426/cartoon-385_426913a.jpg

0811_st-barack

 

 

BREAKING ALARM.

SHALL FINANCIAL MARKETS COLLAPSE ON BLACK MONDAY NOV. 17?

Why? Because for 10 weeks ahead Bush and Paulson are still in charge, and the Saturday 15 Nov. G20 useless meeting will reveal to the world that its leaders have no idea about how to deal with a collapsing economy.

This prophecy and alert is based on the ft paper by Aslund:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/254293/it_can_be_worse_than_the_great_depression

 

Foto sopra. La  migliore immagine della campagna elettorale, che spopola su iPhone:    http://www.iphonesavior.com/2008/10/america-loves-obama-and-palin-dancing-with-the-stars-on-iphone.html. The original “Dancing With The Stars” photo was skillfully remixed by a Tampa Bay graphic designer named Martin Rice. ©

UNO SGUARDO ALLA G-MAIL DI BARACK (source: The Onion) – clicca sulle immagini per leggerle

obama_inbox_redo2_1obama_inbox_redo2_zoom

 

Perche’  la classe media ed il popolo  non  hanno votato Mc Cain?  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wc4qPjOWs68&feature=related  

In questo post:

Ridere e piangere: le battute, ed il possibile crollo verticale dei mercati il lunedi 17 novembre.

ALLARME ROSSO: – 8 giorni alla fine del Capitale Finanziario? il 17 porta sfiga

Prima ridiamo.

2 umorismi a confronto:

MONGREL versus TAN.

ovvero: che fine ha fatto l’altra metà del cervello del Cavalier CCD?

 

1. AUTO-IRONIA: LA CLASSE NON E’ ACQUA. Obama e’ criticato per la sua seriosità, ed allora nella sua prima press conference (solo Kennedy la diede a 2 gg. dalla chiusura dei seggi), all’uscita dal summit con 17 esperti sulla crisi economica, ha tagliato l’aria – sollecitato da una giornalista che aveva  il braccio ingessato per essere stata travolta dalla folla al Grant Park di Chicago, la notte magica del 4 novembre di “All thing is possible in America“-  con il “key issue”: Che cane portare alla Casa Bianca,  ormai  promesso solennemente alle bimbe la notte magica?

“Se prendiamo uno di strada, sarà un MONGREL (bastardino, meticcio) come me …”

2. O “Suntanned”, come l’ha definito – senza possibilità di smentirsi stavolta – in press conference dai suoi amici comunisti a Mosca, il CCDCavaliere dal Cervello Dimezzato (variazione su Italo Calvino); in qualsiasi democrazia occidentale (e l’Italia non lo e’ che dimezzata), un Premier sarebbe obbligato, con procedura costituzionale d’urgenza, alle dimissioni dopo una tale N.ma prova di QI dimezzato e razzismo automatico, inconscio, sub-culturale. 

Il ducetto bassetto, operaio e col riportino

ci fa rivalutare quello doc: basso, contadino e pelato. Se non avessimo speranza, CI VERGOGNEREMMO UN PO’ DI ESSERE ITALIANI, come le centinaia di italiani ed italo-americani che hanno commentato in tal senso gli articoli sul CCD del NYT e del britannico The Times. Comunque siamo davvero alpini, svizzeri, “di un’altra razza” noi: non abbiamo nulla a che spartire con questo squallore padano, eredità marcia della “Milano da bere” che ha raddoppiato il debito pubblico in Italia negli anni ’80, fregando le prossime 5 generazioni. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/06/berlusconi-under-fire-for-obama-joke/

 

Per l’analisi della novità di una campagna elettorale da manuale, già entrata nella Storia (una combinazione unica, merito di David Axelrod, di messaggio chiaro e partecipazione dal basso senza precedenti), i risultati elettorali US e la cronaca della Transizione: GOTO (prossimamente) http://arcapedia.files.wordpress.com il blog associato a questo economico, che tratta invece i temi di scienze sociali e politiche. Ora viene il preannuncio di una possibile catastrofe, un Black Monday da Borse sospese per eccesso di crolli generalizzati.

crozza's_dollarCROLLANO LE BORSE LUNEDI 17 NOVEMBRE?

Sulla emergenza economica, la prima Press Conference di Obama da Chicago dice che (a fianco i nostri commenti):

 

1. Lui e’ pronto ad essere Commander in Chief dal 20 gennaio, ma prima no (per questo ha declinato l’invito di Bush al G 20 del 15 novembre). Bush se la deve vedere intanto col Congresso dove partono ora 2 provvedimenti fiscali di emergenza.

COMMENTO: Il problema e’ che 10 settimane sono lunghissime in questa crisi accorciata dai media del Global Village. Nel mezzo c’e’ una trappola mortale.

 

2. La sua priorità (l’ha sempre detto, l’uomo e’ coerente): il BAILOUT della classe media, inoltre ha parlato molto del settore dell’auto: ci sarà – sottinteso – un bailout di Detroit ma da posizioni di forza, imponendo delle condizioni sociali alle 3 big che altrimenti non arrivano a Natale.

Mettiamoci le pezze ma ricordiamoci: il PROBLEMA BASE  RESTA (la globalizzazione capitalistica ed anti-popolare): nell’epoca dell’Esercito di RIserva di 1,5  miliardi di contadini poveri Chindiani, se a Detroit non si spazza via il sindacato, si esce dal mercato. QUESTO MONDO A VALORI ROVESCIATI, VA BUTTATO GIU’ A SPALLATE, mentre se ne costruisce un altro. Ovviamente, Obama e’  un moderato e non lo farà  sua sponte.

 

 L’incertezza ora si concentra su un eventuale PRECIPIZIO FINANZAIRIO DI QUI A FINE GENNAIO. Secondo Aslund (sul ft, ripreso da rge), la stupidità di Bush (a gara col Cavaliere Dimezzato, ma ahime’ con maggiori responsabilità), e la sceneggiata del finto G20 (cui Obama giustamente non si presta, per separare le responsabilità dinanzi alla Storia), possono innescare il CROLLO FINALE, o quasi finale dei MM.FF.   Il redde rationem: alla faccia degli ottimisti di maniera. Goldman Sachs dice che sia il momento di  comprare a Milano, essendo il price\earning ad 8. Come abbiamo commentato a lezione, se gli earnings nel 2009 si dimezzeranno soltanto (un’ipotesi ultra-  OTTIMISTICA), ecco che il vero p\e ratio di Piazza Affari e’ pari a 16. E chi compra più?

It Can Be Worse than the Great Depression

http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/254293/it_can_be_worse_than_the_great_depression Anders Aslund | Nov 7, 2008 

Everybody from Milton Friedman to John Kenneth Galbraith has criticized the Federal Reserve and US President Herbert Hoover for their policies during the Depression, but at least they were policymakers and stood for principles. As if to illustrate their impotence, President George W. Bush is assembling the political leaders of the group of 20 large countries for a photo opportunity in Washington on November 15. Their failure to come up with anything but vanity could unleash untold financial panic.
Se il Capitale Finanziario in disfatta dovesse doppiare il Capo del Black Monday 17, resterebbe nella tempesta sino al 20 gennaio ed oltre. La parola al nostro vate, Roudini:
However, Obama will inherit and economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollar in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed Funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise given price deflation while the value of financial assets is still plunging. This is the bitter gift that the Bush administration has bequeathed to Obama and the Democrats.



Se vince il Nero (incrociamo le dita)

obamacerealElection flavour … choose from Obama O’s or Cap ‘N MaCain’s cereal. Photograph: Airbed&Breakfast

 

CRONACHE OBAMIANE

 

4 novembre pomeriggio

intrade

See realtime updates of battleground states here.

Obama is ahead in swing states Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico.

John McCain leads in Georgia, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota.

Missouri has teetered red and blue in recent days, but … is tilting to Obama.

Aspettando di verificare stanotte se intrade.com c’azzecca (e chi si fida dei sondaggi ?), dando “il Nero” (come lo chiama simpaticamente Gramellini oggi su La Stampa) vincente al 92%, e travolgente con 364 voti contro 174.

081104_mani_tese

RIflettiamo sulla lezione Obamica ed americana di UNITA’ DELLA SINISTRA, e convergenza degli OPPRESSI con i ceti medi liberal e progressisti. La nostra ferma convinzione  e’ che il terreno delle lotte di classe (svariate, e durissime dentro le borghesie) ed altre lotte (geo-politiche) dentro la CRISI SUBCRIME, detti delle direttive per la ricostruzione delle SINISTRE, sia riformiste che rivoluzionarie, nei paesi occidentali.

Ossia. non e’ una alleanza meramente tattica quella americana, solo per uscire dall’incubo di Bush. Mentre il centro-sinistra italiano ha sempre errato nel cercare convergenze tattiche anti-Berlusconi, finendo in quella clamorosa cazzata e disastro pro-Cavaliere dell’ultimo Governo Prodi. E non e’ finita:  Walter-Ego che corre dietro a quella nullità di Di Pietro, addirittura un referendum sulle fondazioni ed i grembiulini ?!? Ma anche Massimo d’Alema, quando parla di ricostruire le alleanze del PD, pare guardare più al centro ex-DC, pure se non trascura la sinistra rivoluzionaria in crisi d’identità.

Strategicamente, come lo Tsunami subcrime ha incoronato il Nero, così le politiche sociali anti-crisi e nella crisi sono il campo soggettivo ed oggettivo di ricostruzione delle sinistre, la scuola va benissimo MA NON BASTA. Riportiamo qui, a titolo di esempio, un brano del nostro lungo .pdf di analisi economica della crisi, nella versione aggiornata che uscirà a giorni (aspettavamo le elezioni per ridurre l’incertezza).

The policies guidelines we support and describe here are, in synthesis:

1. we support a SOCIALIST redistribution of wealth (the j’accuse of McCain to Obama), i.e. not just a (necessary, but insufficient) Keynesan fiscal redistribution (see point 3), but much more: changing à la Marx the value creation\ appropriation mechanisms of Financial Capitalism, fighting back the expropriation of value creators.

2. Under BRIC-Chindian- emerging countries increasing competition, OECD countries should react by refocussing technological innovation versus Finance. But:

       2\A. SCENARIO A.  This would be possible only after a “redde rationem” within their dominating classes and a defeat of Pure Rentiers –  which is just unrealistic. Therefore, OECD countries will likely slide into decline during this severe recession  (e.g., see the proposal of US innovation policy by Henry and Manzi 2008). The Schumpeterian innovative effects of the recession will be reaped mainly in Asia. 

       2\B. scenario B. A power reallocation in OECD bourgeoisies and their States, with Finance and Rentiers not fully defeated but downsized (in principle, Wall Street bailout allows for this). In such a case, OECD countries re-specialise in those services and niche manufacturing where they have core competences, and delay their decline – although they cannot reverse it, until they are dominated by Rentiers. This is a key area of neo-Gramscian alliances of the exploited, with middle class Obamian progressive sectors.

3. In the reported Naomi Klein’s view, the Paulson Plan is an act of theft, in order to weaken the US Federal budget for the next 8 years. Therefore,  the resources for  mainstream (again, after the end of the Friedman\Reagan era in the subcrime Tsunami) post-Keynesian policies of crisis management – coordinated internationally. 

4. Of course a Bretton Woods-3 would be optimal, but no one has the power to fix the new rules: therefore the post-global economy will stick now to Bretton Woods-2 disequilibria and their dynamics. Essentially, Asian savings will no more flow towards US investments automatically on the US bonds market, but more and more with FDI and market operations by SWF. The Bretton Woods-2 alliance between US finance rentiers and Chindian industrial capital is beginning to break up. 

Wallerstein’s (2008) FAQ on the political arena of the next decades. 

Which bio-political form will take the subject that will redistribute à la Robin Hood, in order to sourt out of this STRUCTURAL DEFLATION? Populism, centre-left or far right?

Published in: on November 4, 2008 at 2:50 pm  Leave a Comment  
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Obama leading 1.5/1, i.e. 50% on McCain

PHOTO: CC license, Steve Rhodes. Flickr

An Obama New Deal

i.e. a door out of the merdique Age of …, is at hand’s take:

1.  most recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.

It shows Obama leading by 12 percentage points — 49% to 37% — in a head-to-head contest, and by 15 points — 48% to 33% — in a four-way race, that includes Barr and Nader. Seems the Republicans aren’t crazy about McCain. The Clintonian camp (demagogically cultivated by McCain) is definitely, quickly converging on Obama — only 11% of Clinton supporters would vote the Republican candidate.

2. Naomi Klein has a strong recommendation, in order to get an Obama New Deal, from the Obama succes that is apparently emerging.Obama’s Chicago Boys .

NAOMI KLEIN: Before Obama can transform the economy, he has some housecleaning to do. Too many Chicago’s Friedmanites in his backyard.

3. The Nation, the Institute for Policy Studies and http://extremeinequality.org,  call for a creative competition: propose a standard name for the 1980-2008 epoch, that an Obama New Deal is called to close forever. Last major ages were:

a) The Great Depression, 1929-39

b) The Great Compression: Economic Miracles (1945-80), Keynesian policies, rise of middle classes, Kaleckian income and wealth equalitarian RE-distribution

c)  (Great) X  Age (1980-2008):  globalisation and world Rentiers Elite, drastic COUNTER – distribution in their favour; consequent hysteresis (1990s), then methastatsis (now) of over-accumulation, in a régime of deflation  (Aglietta- Berrebi, Beitel, Chesnais, Fabius Maximus). An implosion and proletarisation of middle classes, an expropriation and repression of creative classes (Florida, Harvey).

Early name proposals already include: 2nd gilded age, 2nd great transformation (my proposal), epoch of deconstruction, Fall of Rome part 2, great bubble age, great disconnect (harley shaiken, berkeley), great divergence (paul krugman), great divide, great repression (economic and political),  the new confederacy (according to a Comment by blueCedars, the confederacy won Civil War in 1980 and established work slavery), Reaganomics age of wealth inequality, Twin Peaks (my proposal too: a peak of N. Atlantic civilisation, and  world Humboldt Peak for hydrocarbures).

REFERENCES

   Michel Aglietta and Laurent Berrebi (2007), Désordres dans le capitalisme mondiale. Paris: Odile Jacob. 

  Karl Beitel (2008), The Subprime Debacle. Monthly Review, May: “other crises await, and the ability of the central bank indefinitely to defer the underlying problem of overaccumulation is far from guaranteed”.

   François Chesnais (2008, Jan.), Fin d’un cycle. Sur la portée et le cheminement de la crise financière. Carré Rouge – La Brèche,  1: 17-31. 

   Fabius Maximus (2008), Consequences Of A Long, Deep Recession – Parts I, II, III. http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/2008/06/18/consequences-1/  -2, -3. June 18-20.