1 programma di governo: x il centro-sinistra? Per chi ci sta

ANNUNCIO, LANCIO SU TWITTER (testo eguale a qui): http://is.gd/WPZx

Testo integrale del nostro inedito programma di politica economica in Italia, per un’uscita della crisi che consenta di inserirsi (con una finanza pubblica finalmente risanata) in un  nuovo modello di crescita mondiale sostenibile: http://grapesofwrath.ilcannocchiale.it/

Pubblichiamo stamane su http://grapesofwrath.ilcannocchiale.it/ la parte economica di un programma di governo, che di per sè è del tutto “centrista” anzi – ad evitare, a scanso  equinozi – del tutto ORTOGONALE al vecchio frame politico da 2° Millennio, che ancora domina la scena dei mercati politici europei (gli USA si sono invece lanciati a capofitto nel 3°, grazie alle procedure odd, strane ma efficaci delle loro Presidenziali).

BASI ANALITICHE: le ricerche svolte a Vicenza, con il corso di Economia Industriale Internazionale di questo secondo semestre e nel seminario congiunto col corso Analisi Fondamentale dei Mercati. Si veda, in v. provvisoria, il doc-sintesi del Seminario SubCrime: mappaseminario_090530

In breve, per un .. governo Arcangeli- Brunetta, o Arcangeli- Bersani, comunque AB:

1 mega stimolo fiscale del 4% del PIL in finanziaria 2010, ma da anticipare già ora: finanziato con un taglio drastico delle spese inutili o dannose (via le Province, difese dalla Lega);
2 ri-penalizzazione di elusione ed evasione: effetto annuncio che porterebbe ad un surplus di bilancio nel 2010 (non sprecare tale tesoretto come fecero i prodi Padoa Schioppa e Sartor);
3 abolire CIG: reddito sociale garantito di €500 e fermare l’immigrazione con lo sviluppo.
4 ripartono le politiche industriali, dell’innovazione; valorizzare le business ecologies ed i social media.
5 Complementari riforme concorrenziali e di struttura: governo stabile 5 anni senza togliere prerogative ad un Parlamento dimezzato e differenziato tra le 2 Camere (non “Senato delle Regioni”, già ipertrofiche e da ridimensionare, ma delle comunità locali, dei comprensori e distretti; cancellare per sempre le Province, sostituite dai comprensori gravitazionali dei servizi rari e località centrali:  ben più ampi, ed a geografia diversa dai micro-bacini di lavoro locali).

MORE: post di oggi su http://grapes-of-wrath.ilcannocchiale.it/

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Obama New Deal, phase 1

Feb. 17 update – The final stimulus bill allocates $ 790.6 bn:  the CBO estimates tax cuts will amount to $ 288.5 bn and public expenditures about $ 500 bn (wsj) for a total est. cost of $ 787 bn. Today the President signed the bill and wrote us

enzo fabio —

Today, I signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law.
This is a historic step — the first of many as we work together to climb out of this crisis — and I want to thank you for your resolve and your support. (…)
I’ve assigned a team of managers to oversee the implementation of the recovery act. We are committed to making sure no dollar is wasted. But accountability begins with you.
That’s why my administration has created Recovery.gov, a new website where citizens can track every dollar spent and every job created. We’ll invite you and your neighbors to weigh in with comments and questions.
Our progress will also be measured by the tens of thousands of personal stories submitted by people who are struggling to make ends meet. If you haven’t already, you can read stories from families all across the country:

http://my.barackobama.com/yourstories

Your stories are the heart of this recovery plan, and that’s what I’ll focus on every day as President. With your continued support, we’ll emerge a stronger and more prosperous nation.

Thank you,
President Barack Obama

On the eve of the 200-Charles Darwin Day, the US House and the Senate have finally agreed on the mega-stimulus package, which President Obama might already sign next Monday,  February the 15th, i.e. 25 days after entering the White House (1/4 of the early 100 days, when the Beauty versus the Beast – Apocalypse Now – fight will B decided upon in the short term).

Mainstream economists, with whom this time we are tempted to almost agree once (but we have other priorities, since it is not OUR problem to save Capitalisms, but their victims), converge with the great, sublime Paul Samuelson (self-defining himself a Centre-Left, moderate Keynesian), by saying that some moderation and “watering down” (in the Congress revision) of Adm. Obama’s proposals is a first best, since  -e.g. – a demand – only perspective  is balanced with less unilateral supply-side  considerations as well (on this, our friend Michele Boldrin is writing quite important and interesting, fresh things on NfA – Noise from America blog, since early this year; we will discuss them, here and on NfA at length, soon).

Let us say that this is the state-of-the-art in academic Political Economy, and it is symbiotic with what happened in these hard Congressional fights about the final compromise, during the last weeks. One day, just symbolically Sen. Mc Cain presented a  motion to cut the stimulus to half. It comes out with a great momentum, a variety of tools and targets (see the Summary below).

A HISTORIC BILL, starting the Obama New Deal long series, in the next few years.

Sources:

http://www.slate.com/id/2211145?wpisrc=newsletter

Congress Makes a Deal

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123436825805373367.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

Congress Strikes $789 Billion Stimulus Deal

Historic Bill Would Spur Road Building, Give Businesses Tax Breaks, Expand Broadband Access; Final Passage Expected Soon

wsj summary table:

Focal Points of Stimulus Package

Key goals and what indicators to use to gauge success.

Business confidence
Steps: Tax breaks for businesses, appropriations.
Measurement of success: Stock market results and management surveys.

Low income/unemployment aid
Steps: Benefit checks, foodstamp increases, health insurance assistance, Medicaid.
Measurement: Benefit rates

Consumer spending
Steps: Tax breaks to workers.
Measurement: Retail spending, consumer-confidence surveys.

Job creation
Steps: Infrastructure spending, aid to states.
Measurement: Unemployment.

Economic Growth
Steps: Spending, tax breaks.
Measurement: GDP.

Please also note that:

The stimulus accord is a major win for the high-tech industry, which will receive billions of dollars in subsidies to expand broadband access to rural and other underserved areas and a huge infusion of funds to computerize health-care records.

The latter is a very important point, since it marks much more, than just Silicon Valley getting repaid for the EARLY support to “Sen. Nobody” (see on this Giuliano da Empoli 2008, already a classic and comprehensive book on Obama, in Italian; and our various, often updated  static pages on Obamology in http://arcapedia.wordpress.com/).

On the other hand, it is a strong counter-tendency, a counter-factual to the MARKET SELECTION PARADIGM – e.g., theorised in Italy by the no.1 telecom expert, prof. Enzo Pontarollo.  He argues that it is not so bad that the Schumpeterian effect (sometimes called “The Invisible Foot”) and the credit crunch crisis SELECT among very expensive digital highway plans, and allocate credit only to the more rentable ones, where effective demand will repay faster, at least a part of the infrastructure investment.

This is such a complex, multi-dimensional issue. Let us just say  this, as a complement and further qualification to the important, and  theoretically well-rooted Prof. Pontarollo’s argument.

Japan (as far as I know,  the main great and still powerful State doing this) usually doesn’t bother much about “the digital market” plans selection – perhaps also because Japan’s regional economies have been levelled-up during the last half century, and suffer much more from congestion than regional, or rural\urban imbalances. They just shape and anticipate effective market demand years, or even a decade before, laying down  futuristic cooperative-public digital highways (namely in the New Generation Networks, lately).

But if the Nippon State is  now on the defensive, such programs will be delayed for many years, and this anticipatory effect will be lost. In a strong “neo- Keynesian & neo- Schumpeterian” mixed, eclectic and PRAGMATIST (“Nudge“) approach, the Obama’s New Deal starts now doing what Japan has problems to keep up to. This is another Invisible Foot effect: not across regions but across Nations: the US just elected Obama, while the Nippon political system is in search of a “2nd Republic” trajectory since 20 years ago, with no viable, longterm solution yet.

They desperately need either a Berlusconisan, or an Obamasan.

This stimulus Bull hitech component, has little to do with FDR, and we are happy about that: since you know (or at least, regular blog readers do) that we fully agree from the left with the “right” critique to FDR  –  stemming from the careful Amity Shlaes historic reconstruction of what really happened during THAT New Deal 8o years ago (on this precise point, we take a small bit of distance, a degree of freedom  from Obama’s public image and self-representation). In any case, ce n’est qu’un debut.

doctor doom’s 2009

Nouriel Roubini has now a weekly column on Forbes, where some synthesis is made of the much richer rge material (unique, very deep and informative news “clusters”; regular blogs or interventions by some of the best macroeconomists). This is an invitation to read regularly, as an amateur, both “Doctor Doom” Forbes column, and the free sections of rge-monitor.com (while a professional economist is obliged to subscribe to rge):

Doctor Doom

A Global Breakdown Of The Recession In 2009

Nouriel Roubini, 01.15.09, 12:01 AM EST

Forecasting pain, from the U.S. to Australia.

pic

With the industrial world already in outright recession and the emerging world navigating toward a hard landing (growth well below potential), I expect global growth to be flat (around -0.5%) in 2009.

This will be the worst global recession in decades as the fallout of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression took a toll first on the U.S. and then–via a variety of channels–on the rest of the global economy.

Here is a global breakdown of my forecast.

The United States economy is only halfway through a recession that started in December 2007 and will be the longest and most severe in the post-war period. U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout all of 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5%.

One last look at 2008 will reveal a very weak fourth quarter with GDP growth contracting about -6% in the wake of a sharp fall in personal consumption and private domestic investment.

I see the real GDP growth contraction playing out through the year as follows: first quarter 2009: -5%; second quarter 2009: -4%; third quarter 2009: -2.5%; fourth quarter 2009: -1%–adding up to a yearly real GDP growth of -3.4% for the U.S. in 2009.

This forecast is much worse than the current consensus forecast seeing a growth recovery in the second half of 2009; I also predict significantly weak growth recovery–well below potential–in 2010. (…)

The latest cyclical upswing in the Eurozone was largely driven by a temporary but powerful boost to domestic investment from disappearing risk premia in the aftermath of the adoption of the single currency and by external demand from a buoyant world economy.

Both demand sources fizzled out by the second half of 2008, leaving the Eurozone as a whole and its largest members exposed to diverging deleveraging patterns in the face of suboptimal EMU-wide automatic fiscal stabilizer mechanisms.

The latest record-low readings of leading and sentiment indicators point to a severe recession ahead in 2009 that shapes up to be worse than the 1992-93 crisis. For the Eurozone, I expect a below-consensus contraction in real GDP of around -2.5% (…)

We believe China will experience a hard landing in 2009, with growth unlikely to exceed 5%, a sharp slowdown from the 10% average of the last five years. The reversal of capital flows and high credit cost will pull down India‘s growth significantly, to around 5% in 2009 from an estimated 6% in 2008.

END  OF NOURIEL’S QUOTATION

This graph, now in the front page of the Greenberg geo-eco think thank of the CFR (where we always read two of our favourite blogs: Follow the money by the International Economics “Sherlock Holmes” Brad Setser (*); and the delightful political incorrectness of  Amity Shlaes’ Forgotten man: healthy antidotes to FDR or BO’s santifications), is quite informative.

RAQ (Rarely Asked Q.) Did u know, before having looked at it, that the 2nd NewEconomy bubbbbbble (2003-07)  was much more  pervasive cross-country, than the so much advertised 1st one (1994-2001)?

2growths_oneline_cfr

(*) We are much more than friends, in brotherhood from decades with Otaviano Canuto, himself an rge blogger, Catou and all their beautiful family. Nonetheless, our esteem of Otaviano as an economist made a big jump upward a few weeks ago, when we discovered, in an exchange of comments on a recent post, he had … something to teach to Brad. Before, we believed anything alike impossible, i.e. beyond human limits.

Il crollo della borsa di NY nel 2009

Dal Bollettino RED.O ormai quasi pronto, anticipiamo oggi uno stralcio. Sono i nostri auguri di Buon Anno, senza cattiveria ne’ pessimismo. Occorre conoscere bene la Bestia apocalittica (il Capitale Finanziario ferito a morte, ma ancora sotto la tenda ad ossigeno del SOCIALISMO FINANZIARIO somministrato dalla tojka Bernanke – Geitner – Paulson, che al 20 gennaio perde solo un socio), con cui combatteremo corpo a corpo le nostre battaglie biopolitiche per  tutto il 2009; ed oltre.

Chi avesse letto i nostri blogpost di giugno (e vedo dalle statistiche che i visitatori se li rileggono con gusto), non avrebbe perso una lira su titoli Lehman Bros. Avrebbe persino avuto tutto il tempo di ricontrattare assicurazioni, pensioni integrative INDICIZZATE Lehmans (la fregatura peggiore, perche’ il “cliente”  non lo sa nemmeno: le associazioni dei consumatori hanno predisposto delle lettere standard per chiedere alle assicurazioni-banche una informativa in proposito).

APPROFONDIMENTO\1

IL GRAFICO DI SHILLER: 108 anni di p/e depurati dal ciclo

p\e ratio depurato, S&P 1900-2008Fig. 3. NYSE: p\e ratio depurati dal ciclo, S&P 1900-2008. Variazione dalla media secolare.

Da SHILLER, l’attento studioso delle bolle: riprodotto da Authers,  il 9 novembre nella sua rubrica sul ft, e ripreso il 25 nov. su

https://enzofabioarcangeli.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/eratio.gif

NOTABENE: IL VENTENNIO 1990-2008 DI SOPRAVVALUTAZIONE DELLE AZIONI e quindi dei  p/e,   NON HA PRECEDENTI, PER DURATA ED INTENSITA’.

Nel grafico si notano 2 valli profonde, attorno al 1920 e 1980 (quando arriva Reagan), e questa immensa montagna con vetta nel 2000 (a primavera di quell’anno viene giù il NASDAQ, ma il NYSE  – cui si riferisce il grafico – tiene ancora per qualche mese). La massa di tale montagna e’ tale, da spostare massicciamente in alto il p/e medio secolare che fa da benchmark, livello 0 del grafico.

ANALISI

IN RETROSPETTIVA

Avendo la bolla-1 Greenspan – New Gilded Age  raggiunto un Guinness nel 2000, superiore al 1929, in una situazione deflattiva (Aglietta) il mercato avrebbe dovuto:

i) scendere brusco, ed ora potremmo essere ad un minimo (- 0,5) da cui risalire con politiche globali keynesiane (monetarie e fiscali) reflattive.

ii) Invece la bolla-2 Greenspan dal 2003, ha creato un  falso-piano privo di punti d’appoggio. Il mancato aggiustamento in tempo reale, ha compresso energie  deflazioniste immense (come caricare una molla). Ora il crollo di Borsa e’ già, e sarà per un buon paio d’anni drammatico, per scendere sino a -1 circa.

IN PROSPETTIVA

La nostra ipotesi di lettura e’ che, uscendo – come ben sanno gli operatori – da un ventennio ECCEZIONALE, UNICO (1990-2008) di “sopravvalutazione” dei titoli mondiali quotati su NY, gli effetti concatenati originati dal buco nero subcrime (doppio sboom, delle bolle immobiliare e shadow finance) portano “naturalmente”, per dinamica sistemica (vedi Soros 2008: i sistemi si avvitano in giù), ad un decennio 2009-20 di valori “sottovalutati”:  non rispetto ai profitti attesi e “fondamentali”, ma alla media storica.

Quindi non e’ questo il momento, non e’ la fase di LP:

A)  per pensioni integrative market-based: sono un bidone (somministrato con incoscienza ed insipienza da Padoa Schioppa, Sartor, e Triplice Sindacale avida di rendite);

B) per schemi di azionariato operaio (salvo in imprese di successo): non perche’ siano una proposta “non marxista”, saint-simoniana o prudhoniana (questo sarebbe un punto a loro favore); non e’ il momento. Il wsj dice che in Borsa giocando non short ma sul trend, si guadagna sui 20 anni: si, ma solo in quelli “giusti”, appena passati. Altrimenti occorre attendere 40 anni!

il cannocchiale

US bank runs: who told a systemic meltdown is over? IT IS NOT

CAN YOU HEAR SITTING BULL’S WAR-CRY? WELL, THE LITTLE BIG HORN OF SHADOW FINANCE IS ON. After that, in Autumn non-financial co. will start going bankrupt.

Hard 2 read and 2 believe: but this is REALLY the NYT front page, day after Little Big Horn!!! Thanks the sublime NYT serivce: On this Day  (Copyright 2007 the NYT Company). 25 June 1876. Col. George A. Custer and his 7th Cavalry were wiped out by Sitting Bull’s Sioux and Cheyenne Indians in the Battle of Little Big Horn, Montana. 

FACTS, NOT FAIRY TALES!

June 18 update. Alphaville: HOT AUTUMN, banks’ bears warnings 

Deeprecession has a 1 day lead on the RBS mail, 2 days on Alphaville

Bearish analysts are out in force. Bob Janjuah [credit strategist] of RBS, in an email on Tuesday, warns of a global stock and credit crash in the next few months; with the S&P 500 likely to lose up to a quarter of its value. In credit, Janjuah sees the iTraxx soaring to 130/150 and the iTraxx Crossover to 650/700. (…) Wall Street should rally through early July before succumbing to the twin pressures of high oil and high inflation – the first painful spasms of a recession. The RBS team also point specifically to the limited range of options open to central banks. The point is taken up by analysts at Morgan Stanley. A note from last week – “1992 redux” – by the bank’s European banking team – warns of potential for a “catastrophic event” on the horizon to match the European monetary crisis of the early nineties.

MS: We find striking similarities between the transatlantic macro tensions that built up in the early 1990s and those that are accumulating again today. In both cases, monetary authorities took opposite options on both sides of the Atlantic: stabilising output in the US, and stabilising prices in Europe. Macro tensions caused a major currency crisis in Europe in 1992. Will history repeat itself? 1992 Redux - MS note

Just after this entry, posted by Sam Jones on June 18th, 2008 at 11:07,

another contemporary Alphaville post, by Robert Cookson at 13:24 adds:

Mr Janjuah’s peers at other European banks agreed it was inevitable that credit markets would deteriorate later in the year, potentially quite dramatically, when large companies started to default on their debt. However, most said that RBS was a touch aggressive in forecasting that turmoil would strike as soon as August. (According to one strategist)  many struggling companies would be able to limp along into 2009 before falling apart.

The discussion is only about time frame: dead bodies might keep walking to 2009.

Original post

FACTS, not a propaganda trying to delay the redde rationem, an always imminent RUN on US FINANCIAL BANKS  (spada di Damocle).

1) we are still, and only, in the beginning (since end 2007) of a global “subcrime” recession, rooted in historical and structural processes in the creation and appropriation of economic value:

1a) the peculiar way a Reagan-microelectronics Kondratiev Long Wave (KLW) went burst (see Carlota Perez – for full references: goto  subcrimebiosocialscience1.pdf). We mean, not just one bubble or another went burst, but a unique, entire, historical chance of sustainable progress (late capitalisms could not grasp) was missed by humanity and the Earth. For enriching the pockets of a few hundred billionaires. A Donald Duck world.

 

1b) How did such a quantum technological jump go wrong and lost? It was killed on the altar of such Medieval rites as: b1) enrich a handful of global rentiers and rape an obsolete Middle Class (no democracy to be socially enveloped any more); b2) fuck the Russian mil.-ind. complex and “ally”, more exactly link up with China; b3) tell people there is laissez faire and democracy, while MONOPOLIES RULE in thanato-political liberal régimes or tyrannies (Adam Smith and Loretta Napoleoni, Michel Foucault and Roberto Esposito). c) We live for decades to come, a generation or two, in a new (post-Reagan and MPUs) Deflationary Long Wave: a  byproduct of the Greenspan-Clinton irresponsible, witchcraft manipulations of the declining US economy in the 1990s (Aglietta-Berrebi, Chesnais). Hopefully, Bill will not come back as first lady!

2) Last episode of such a deep, structural process in value production and circulation (Marx, Capital, Book 2): the subcrime-based shadow finance, was meant to enlarge the circuits of over-accumulation in search of an outlet. The target was scientifically selected: afro-american bobos and regular Latino workers (at least $4000 of family earnings, in order to steal them 3000-3500 per month !!! see case studies in the quoted subcrime … .pdf). Systemic scope, only way to create a “growth” illusion, in a CRAZY RENTIERS WORLD sunk into deflation and depression:

2A) RAPE the first (quasi-affluent blacks) and second tier (latinos) of people still wiling to enter, via patriotic-sacre housing property, the middle class.

 

2B) From stealing their homes, hopes, lives and wages: create a fixed material point, that the fantasy of the casino economy will multiply some thousand times in  “assets” (in fact, property rights on a chain leading at the end to the real asset: Chesnais; this is why someone had to be RAPED at chain end), to be bought by the Rentiers èlite savings, out of the surplus value they expropriated from productive value chains.

 

3) 3 months ago, in March 2008 the US Bush Adm. and the Fed JOINTLY delayed a meltdown of the 5 US pure financial banks, likely spreading quickly into a global meltdown, by bailing out Bear Stearns. Now it’s Lehman last bell, death time. Third to be soldout will be Merill Lynch soon (the FT tells BofA wants it), and fourth Morgan Stanley, likely to be historically reunited in the (JP) Morgan mother house. Only Goldman Sachs will survive this Little Big Horn. We do not invent such an order: it is written in their books, leverage ratios and the premium rates they pay (see graph). Rentiers carry on telling (not believing, they are smart), and THEIR MEDIA keep echoing every day as a litany: a systemic meltdown is over. You always find this proposition in newspapers, with redundancy. Ask Roubini: he knows and tells you the answer.  

 

4) Rev. Jessie Jackson, one of the greatest living personalities, as far as we know invented “subcrime” for subprime. In a March 20 timely speech in Chicago (quoted in our .pdf, Section 4), where he accused the Govt. of moral hazard financing bankrupt banks, while ignoring foreclosures and people. As we have already discussed in this blog, in synchrony with the economic blogs community (namely: perplexity towards a NYT  op-ed by  Robert J. Shiller, on May 18), this is a delicate issue of policies; since a bailout of foreclosures (with the excuse of the poor rape victims) will always close the gap of Subcriminals. It’s the easy credit for sacred property TABOO that must be challenged, overcome, identified as a Middle Class narrative belonging to the past, while manipulation belongs to the present (see Joriot). But the US left is always in a mess, lost in between Blair-Clintonian Late  Reaganism, and a-scientific, ideological Populism. Even Obama – basically a postClintonian, on that line of evolution of neoDemocrats, but somehow divided, as it often happens to us, between his rational mind and heart. This is physiological in a country that, after Tocqueville (no democracy without religion), is so much ideological and radical, but has not declined a variety of complex ideologies (like Eurasia). They stand by the American Myth, Father of a constellation of Myths – e.g., housing, financed by the Fed. State via Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (Joriot)- a bit like Greece before the Ionians and the Athenians. They hardly get (perhaps The Nation?) to such a Myths deconstruction (Derrida), that would engender a Real Socialist left. This is a priority area of political work, in networks of international coop – helping US progressives to make a step further. This is what we mean by “Robin Hood policies”. More on this another time. 

 

The DIAGNOSIS, from p. 5 of  subcrimebiosocialscience1.pdf

 

1. the global economy is locked in a longrun demand deficit hysteresis (requiring a drastic redistribution), and liquidity trap (making monetary and credit policies totally ineffective)

2. fiscal and income policy implication: the world badly needs an epoch-making, giant income and wealth redistribution, from the élites to impoverished masses. A Keynes-Kalecki and Ricardo-Pasinetti models classic case, calling to rebalance 25 years of counter-distribution

 

3. in fact, the “1987-2007 Rentiers’ glorious years” increased:

– both the rate of Absolute and Relative Surplus Value extraction: in each OECD country, 9% GNP shifted from wages, to gross profits and self-employment incomes; – and of its appropriation by Rentiers – see Fig. 2 of the pdf: showing that the US finance margins jumped from 35% to 50% in the “20 Glorious” 

4. such a counter-distribution dropped the global economy into a deflationary régime

 

5. a drastic improvement of world welfare, an intrinsic ICTs potential, went bust by Lewis-effects (unlimited labour supply discouraging technical change, i.e. substituting Absolute for Relative Surplus Value)

 

6. a complication: political systems do not allow such a global Keynesian-Obama New Deal

7. morale: a political hysteresis (Blair-Clinton-socialdem. PostReaganism, a follow up of “doc” Reaganism) in leading OECD countries, is blocking the road out of the economic hysteresis.