Tibet: Breaking News – GOOOD NEWS!

Heard now on the radio, a big success for: Olympics; peace; contractual, limited and peaceful self-determination. Also a tactical good point of the moderate Tibetans (even though got by using a violent revolt wild card), besides an intelligent move by Hu Jintao. HE IS READY TO DEAL WITH THE DALAI LAMA. The sincere part of Tibet solidarity fronts also won (not the monopolists media information bubble: now obliged to invent another story: any new bare first lady Carla Bruni? Pamela, no thanks: an old chicken).

BAD NEWS: Interpol informs Al Qaeda might attack the Olympics. In fact, 3 are the main pro-WW3 forces, and one is rooted in Middle East turmoils. This is the sad world without peace, we live in.

MORE: AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS UPDATED TODAY; THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND, a bibliography  in our workinprogress TIBET page (an Arcapedia item in Italian, but with always enlarged English sections):


Prof. Montessoro has just given an important, timely and useful comment on Italian Radio3, local 1.45 pm news, www.gr3.rai.it. In synthesis:

(a) this is both a Chinese Government tactical shift, and a strategic one at the same time (you know, communism, power’s art and strategies require some Machiavelli-Hegel dialectics), that is:

(b) on the one hand. Hu Jintao opens to the Dalai Lama because of the international pressure: he doesn’t want to lose his face from here to the Olympics, nor ruin and waste  the big party, ads, propaganda, etc.

(c) on the other hand, there is substance as well. The Chinese govt. (as we had already concluded, beforehand, in the analysis of our Arcapedia page “Tibet”, accessible here from the right column) is perfectly aware that he has to change some detalils (NOT TOO MUCH) of the status of Tibet within PRC.

(d) dealing with the Dalai Lama has immense, unique and valuable advantages for Peking: every peace-lover suggested that since long! But there was a balance of power game behind. Time, maturation and more pressure was needed: finally the Olympics dynamics accelerated events and got it (Olympics propaganda aura –  Tibetan popular revolts in March – worldwide solidarity, although infiltrated by anti-China Hawks – boomerang into Olympic games –  today’s Beijing decision to start colloquia).

(e) Beijing knows it has to better CALIBRATE his Tibetan policy, just that and up to a given, prefixed  limit: more provincial autonomy; a larger personal role of the Dalai Lama. Nothing, no concession to  the Nationalist components of the Tibetan society.

(f) Beijing and the Dalai Lama have both a close, and increasing interest to close their 1959 gap: the 2008 Tibet base movement has marked a further step towards pure nationalism and separatism, that has taken more and more space in the last 20 years (according to prof. Montessoro).

(g) DALAI LAMA value added to enter a contractual game: the traditional Tibetan élite is close behind him, no problem. But things  have changed across decades: who’s the emerging local élite, how much do they, and how many do listen to him? For how long? DAKAI LAMA IS BUYING PRECIOUS TIME, by accepting to deal with Hu Jintao (also buying time, while this authoritative Dalai Lama is alive: LONGLIFE!). Nationalism and independentism is necessarily arising, it happened everywhere in close cases in the world, even after the most advanced and even excessive concessions (feeding the separationist process). There are hundreds nationalities unfitting Nation States geography all over the word, it’s a big mess: there is something wrong in the whole of it, the bloody Nationalism. One thing is the terroir, the roots: another an ideology of hate and separation, in a continuum of geography and humanity. Therefore: no blessing, no solidarity to Tibetan Nationalists. They’re intrinsically as  fascists as anyone else, from the Basque  country to everywhere.

(h) Take – as a benchmark –  Austrian speaking people in the  Bolzano\ Bozen province, Italy: they have every possible and imaginable privilege; they are amongst the richest in Europe, with one of the lowest unemployment rate in the world (1%; 2% in recession times !!!); and they’d much, very much poorer, did the province move to Austria’s domain (NEVER !). Decency and self-esteem limits of a nation state (Italy) have been humiliated and trespassed by far, in the postwar  settling De Gasperi-Gruber Italy-Austria agreements (deeply unfavourable and unjust for Italy: a major failure of the excellent De Gasperi). Well, many of them (I think the most irrational, stubborn and stupid ones – in any case the nationalist wing), still want to join Austria, and live in Italy at the same time. And we, the too much Christian, peaceful Italians, we don’t send them behind the Alps, into Austria A CALCI IN CULO (boots in the bum), AS THEY DESERVE!!!  I am not sure it’ll not end up this way, sooner or later: in nearby provinces (like the Dolomites) there is a sweeping revolt, for the unfair tourism competition coming from over-subsidised Bozen Italians, paid by all over Italy taxpayers, and still thinking – the Nazis –  they’re Austrians (90 years after 1918 war end. YA BASTA). You go to a hotel there, you pay just €20 or max 30  a night, in the high season, but  they receive the double as a subsidy (they cash a normal €60 to 100): how can one compete with them in unsubsidised Cortina d’Ampezzo, one valley far away?

(i) Lots of sympathy and understanding for Hu Jintao, in THIS RESPECT! The opposition and resistance to bare Nationalism.  First, the Chinese Empire de facto did not explode as the contemporary Roman one did, so it’s still alive. Second, on this tradition he’s not the devil. Just a tyran among many: including those fabricated by Western “democratic-at-home” monopolies,  secret services, their allied-satellite forces and mafias. At least, he’s autoctone, genuine, home made and, BASICALLY: stemming from CP stronger resistance to Jap Imperialists (the Nanking rape murderers), compared to the Kuomintang. And history never goes backward.

(j) Unless you stop it, with concessions and a fair compromise, Tibetan Nationalism would quickly escape any real control even by the Exile Govt., therefore  leading to a tit-for-tat of mass revolts and repressions, eventually: an unequal civil war and likely democide, in such a case (NB: according to our analysis and independent sources, a democide already happened; but a new one would be the end of it, last Tibetans escaping from Tibet: Who wants this? Perhaps some cynical Western Imperialist? Even a few suicidal Tibet martyr nationalists?).

FAQ. IN SUM, who wins, who loses this game round, with an announced Tibet Table?

See the answer, at the end of the initial English section of  Arcapedia’s TIBET,

THIS, AND MUCH MORE IN OUR TIBET PAGE: here on the right, static pages column.