GreenspanTremonti generated Great Depression

Finally a highly likely answer to the initial faq in this de(e)p-re(ce)ssion blog, since when it started 3 and 1\2 years ago: hard recession or long depression? The latter.

 

3 years after Lehman Bros. today

How it happened that we were thrown into the 2010s Great OECD Depression?

#GreatOECDepression

Chance and serendipity in history. Here is, in an Italian version, a brief about how the 3rd GD in the History of Capitalsms (the plural is MANDATORY!) was produced by a clever, furbo Alan Greenspan and such a beast as Giulio “Voltremont” 3monti.

From my yesterday’s  twitter hashtag, we’ll label the 2010s  as #GreatOECDepression, in order to focus upon its main novelty, the peculiar global duality.

DAL SUBPRIME AL CROLLO EST-EUROPEO ED AL DEBITO SOVRANO ATLANTICO. LE VIE DEL SIGNORE ALLA OECD GREAT DEPRESSION.

Il SUBCOMANDANTE subcrime mette sotto stress estremo, e talora  stravolge e rimette  in discussione DALLE LORO FONDAMENTA,  i Capitalismi post-Fordisti tarocchi di matrice Reagan – Greenspaniana (di striscio Clintoniana, se lui contava q.cosa).

Nonostante i sapienti trucchi di quest’ultimo, e la decisiva complementarietà col sotto-consumo BRICS,  sistemi insostenibili basicamente per erosione della figura e della esistenza bio-politica stessa de  ceti medi circa la maggioranza della popolazione, il borghese-massa (Mario TRONTI), e la sua capacità autonoma di C e S senza indebitarsi in modo perverso e\o progressivo.

Ciò avviene nella civilizzazione Nord Atlantica, diciamo per contesto sottoposta anche (ma assai più blandamente) ad una del tutto normale,  ENTROPICA e fisiologica erosione sociale secolare, dopo le onde di sviluppo lungo un 1\2 millennio, che trassero spunto anche dai rimescolamenti dell’ecologico Columbus Exchange (dal pomodoro alla Pizza Margherita)

Ma venamo a  noi ora:

Meccanismi di generaz. della #GreatOECDepression: 

1 0nda 1, subcrime 2007-10 (US UK Ic\reland Spain): da blocco inter-bancario luglio 2007 x demoltiplicatori-acc. e varie crisi simultanee, sino alla recessione globale differenziata 2009 e ripresa borse 2010 nell’aspettativa di un ciclo standard.

2 0nda est-europea 2, 2009-11  (CEE, Central East Eu.: crisi monet. e fin.) si riprende dopo decisivo IMF-bailout (altrimenti saltavano subito le esposte Austria, Italia ed Unicredit, Svezia con impatti successivi) e Hayekiane cure da cavallo (drastici tagli redditi, svalutazioni e strette fiscali).

3 0nda SovDebt 3, 2010-15? (contagio da PIIGS a €; il “compagno spread”) precipita riforma rimbalza. € al panettone, ma + difficile colomba 2012. 3 anni dopo l’0nda 1, funziona un po’ come 1931 su 1929: è Grande Depressione, ma stavolta NON GLOBALE. 0ECD.

4  #GreatOECDepression 2007 – 2020? Il riarmo tra i blocchi populisti contrapposti iniziò nel … (speriamo che ce la caviamo).


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Who was the Forrest Gump of the crisis? Bob, of course

Robert Rubin, Goldman Sachs arbitrageur and chairman, US treasury secretary, and Citigroup grandee, was the Forrest Gump of this crisis

The outstanding accusation by the Reuters’ Felix Salmon blog, on March 3:

Robert Rubin, Goldman Sachs arbitrageur and chairman, US treasury secretary, and Citigroup grandee, was the Forrest Gump of this crisis, turning up in all the key places at all the key times. The fact that he’s still trying to deflect blame off himself and onto the hapless George W Bush is simply pathetic. There’s more than enough bad stuff to pin on Bush that he really shouldn’t blame the crisis on him as well. Especially not when he’s so personally culpable for the crisis. Indeed, there’s probably no one individual, with the possible exception of Alan Greenspan, who deserves more blame for this crisis than Rubin does.

A bit superficial, but VERY GOOD – the attack and the label for Rubin!!! Well deserved, indeed.

But deeply, I don’t agree and I am not alone: how can we not focus also upon the Clintonians (although with a  lot of difference amongst them), most of which are now the economic gurus of poor Obama guy (who nonetheless chose them freely, under reasonable cultural, socio-environmental and financial constraints – contradicting the little he had kept saying during a Campaign that he finally won only in September, under AIG and Lehman collapses).

Published in: on March 7, 2010 at 4:33 am  Leave a Comment  
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No rally: full recession, fears of deflation and the spectre of Marx

happiness: http://www.freewebs.com/socialistcommonwealth/bralds_marx-s%20(2).jpg sadness: Tokyo stock exchange on another Black Friday, Oct. 24 2008 (AP)

ITALIAN SECTION

31 ottobre. BREAKING NEWS: – rottura tra CAI e piloti, l’Alitalia ad un passo dal fallimento. IN TAL CASO NON  SUBENTREREBBE NEMMENO UNA COMPAGNIA EUROPEA, ma si venderebbe a pezzi. Colannino a colloquio dal Premier (ore  7pm) – Draghi: non deve essere l’EURIBOR  il tasso di riferimento per i mutui casa

DOPO IL MASSIMO. Speriamo che me la cavo.

La riuscita manifestazione PD dei 750.000 del 25 ottobre, e successivamente lo sciopero generale della scuola,  alzano – ceteris paribus, benche’ non di molto – le chances che rinasca un’opposizione in Italia, quindi la lotta di classe possa ridurre il peso della crisi sugli oppressi, i  pensionati ed il popolo bue. La c.d. “sinistra di governo” taccia per sempre, dopo che mentre stava per crollare il capitalismo finanziario, ha cercato invano di far carte false e convincere  i lavoratori di mettere le loro liquidazioni e pensioni nei FONDI BIDONE. Anche questi Prodi ministri e sindacalisti hanno la faccia come il culo. Per fortuna c’erano i sindacati di base a fare contro-informazione.

ALAN: LA FACCIA COME IL CULO

Per la prima volta sotto il fuoco di fila del Parlamento, alla Commissione Oversight and Government Reform, Alan Greenspan (resp. No. 1 al mondo del crollo del capitale finanziario) fa finta di fare auto-critica ieri: fu “a flaw” non regolare i derivati. MA IL BANCHIERE CRIMINALE DICE PURE IL CONTRARIO:

Greenspan, responding to questions, said only “onerous” regulation would have prevented the financial crisis. Stifling rules would have suppressed growth and hurt Americans’ standards of living, he said. (source: Bloomberg)

IL BANCHIERE BASTARDO, LA FACCIA COME IL CULO, ha sostenuto ancora una ricetta auto-regolativa delle sue, che hanno governato a colpi di bubbles, e stanno portando il mondo alla fame. Quando una finanziaria emette securities, se ne deve tenere per se una certa quota, così e’ incentivata a dare il giusto prezzo al rischio.

I PIFFERAI DI BREMA

Invece il nostro vituperato Cavaliere, in una delle sue 10.000 smentite aveva azzardato che si potevano chiudere i mercati: ebbene, lo dice pure – a Bloomberg – Roubini che se ne intende. Il Cavaliere, ormai lo sappiamo, vale sempre PRIMA della smentita. Il problema e’ che con lui, il geniale Brunetta  e Hood Robin Tremonti al governo vale la

LEGGE DI MURPHY

“Se qualcosa può andar storto, la catastrofe e’ assicurata”. Mentre l’ ultimo governo Prodi tergiversava, questi ci potrebbero portare dritti dritti …

CROZZA-DOLLARO

A share trader behind a false one dollar bill (much similar to the one alive, you see at Crozza Italia TV show) at the German stock exchange in Frankfurt, October 24, 2008.   REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

CHRONICLES FROM A RED PLANET: MARX

Oct. 27 Reuters   Korean Confederation of Trade Union Vice-President Ju Bong-hee takes part in a protest against the ongoing meeting of the Global Forum on Migration and Development (FGMD) as he is blocked by anti-riot police in Manila, Philippines, October 27, 2008. The number of undocumented migrant workers across the world is expected to rise in the face of the global financial crisis, trade unions and business leaders warned on Monday, urging governments to respect labor rights.   MIGRANT ARE NOT COMMODITIES: REUTERS/Romeo Ranoco Oct. 24 Alphaville http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/24/17413/black-hole-friday/

Recommended reading: Roubini’s latest take: We’ve reached a situation of sheer panic… There will be massive dumping of assets [and] hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust. Systemic risk has become bigger and bigger… We’re seeing the beginning of a run on a big chunk of the hedge funds… don’t be surprised if policy makers need to close down markets for a week or two in coming days.

Here is our comment  to Fabius Maximus, http://fabiusmaximus.wordpress.com/, posted on rge http://www.rgemonitor.com/globalmacro-monitor/254129#125448

New recommendations to solve our financial crisis (and I admit that I was wrong) Fabius Maximus | Oct 23, 2008 Summary:  Please vote, and do so carefully!  This could be one of the most important elections in American history, as continued economic crisis might require a massive (and hopefully temporary) expansion of government power — unlike anything we have seen except during wars. On September 25 I sketched out A solution to our financial crisis, in three parts. (1)  Stabilize the financial system – Being attempted, probably now it’s too late. (2a)  Stabilize the economy with monetary stimulus– Rates are coming down and money printed, but probably with relatively little effect. (2b)  Stabilize the economy with fiscal stimulus — Just now being considered; will work but slow to implement and slow to have effect. (3)  Arrange long-term financing for steps #1 and #2 with our foreign creditors – Unacceptable to our leaders at this time. Parts 1 and 2 are being implemented, much as described.  Part 3 was described as necessary at some point in the future.  I said that these probably would not work over the medium to long term, but would mitigate the downturn (slow or even reduce the economic decline, and alleviate the resulting suffering). I was wrong.  The rate of decline — destabilization of the global financial system – has become so great that these measures will prove insufficient.  In my opinion (these are, of course, guesses).  Since I doubt our leaders have a Plan B, here is a suggestion. Extreme mobilization by the government of our economic resources, as we have done during wars.

Hei Fab I always read your blog and I quote it, suggest it from mines. Thanks for the self-critique, actually more convincing than Greenspan’s… I agree on a war-like mobilization for the immediate short term, a sort of OBAMA NEW DEAL or even more than that. The war metaphor is important in the US, where only military Keynesianism is allowed by the “public opinion” and pop culture. And beyond? I can’t see how this severe recession and credit meltdown might not go into sharp deflation and then depression, until wealth redistribution is taken seriously and DRASTICALLY into account. Yours Fabius Minimus Reply to this comment By enzo fabio arcangeli on 2008-10-24 03:25:21    Oct. 21.

THE FRENCH STATE entropy: from champions nationaux to no selection, saving everybody.

Sarkozy applies financial socialism and semi-nationalise 6 banks. Meltdown financial capitalism rediscovers “Partecipazioni Statali”, i.e. what Mussolini  already did in the 1930s. ft – France injects €10.5bn into top six banks

The French government’s injection in the form of subordinated loans will shore up balance sheets and maintain credit provision for consumers and businesses – 11:28 Crédit Agricole would receive €3bn, BNP Paribas €2.55bn, Société Générale €1.7bn, Crédit Mutuel €1.2bn, Caisse d’Epargne €1.1bn and Banque Populaire €0.95bn.

WE REPRODUCE HERE THE ABSTRACT OF OUR STATIC PAGE  “AAA UPDATES …”, that we strongly  recommend to our readers and students, since it develops in real time a collection and comment of economic analyses and policies. This ABSTRACT answers the historical FAQ no.1, after the Wall Street collapse.

SUMMARY

THE DEFINITIVE CRISIS OF FINANCIAL CAPITALISM? MAYBE; BUT NOT  NECESSARILY, and the game is not over yet. Its Greenspan – Reaganite standard version is certainly dead forever –  in the earthquake moved by the shadow finance meltdown. But – doing  their business as usual of collaborationists with Rentier Capital –  social-democrats “doc” à la Gordon Brown (followed willy nilly by such neophites as Bush, Merkel and Sarkò) are desperately looking for a “financial socialist” escape from this cul-de-sac, meltdown and ruins of a Glorious Years past.  Most likely, they won’t succeed: a. first of all since their analysis is wrong (it’s not based  on Keynes, Kalecki and Minsky), b. therefore their cures are just palliatives; c. they just use State muscles, not the brain (see a Lex editorial on this, on Oct. 13: Brownian Motion in Europe). We can take these two Marx-Keynesian axioms for granted. For sure: 1) By Bernd Debusmann

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Capitalism as we used to know it is on its deathbed. And those who predicted that the old brand, the unfettered, American-promoted system, was a danger to the world, are being vindicated. They include Karl Marx … (our red-bold and underlining).

2) Giorgio Ruffolo, following but also updating Marx: “Il capitalismo ha i secoli contati (its end is a matter of centuries)”. Now Financial Capitalism might be dead. But capitalism as such will not disappear soon, not before an evolutionarily fitter “mode of production and distribution” emerges – within the same social evolution and organisation, carrying the irreversible decline of Late Capitalisms (Ernst Mandel). 3) Carlota Perez (in sintonia with Wallerstein, in a LW perspective on deflation – see also Aglietta and Berrebi): behind the financial eltdown catastrophe, there are institutional and political nodes delayed for decades. An ICT-led long wave almost aborted as a result: https://enzofabioarcangeli.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/subcrimebiosocialscience1.pdf 4) Wallerstein, the marxist historian, concludes his Oct. 15 post on  badmatthew: http://badmatthew.blogspot.com/2008/10/wallerstein-on-return-of-depression.html by saying that – 4A)  capitalism IS DEAD – a dissenting view – as a matter of decades, NOT centuries (versus Ruffolo), – 4B) and joining post-Schumpeterian Carlota’s and neo-marxist Aglietta’s regulation arguments: What happens when we reach such a point is that the system bifurcates (in the language of complexity studies). The immediate consequence is high chaotic turbulence, which our world-system is experiencing at the moment and will continue to experience for perhaps another 20-50 years. (…)  We can assert with confidence that the present system cannot survive. What we cannot predict is which new order will be chosen to replace it, because it will be the result of an infinity of individual pressures. But sooner or later, a new system will be installed. This will not be a capitalist system but it may be far worse (even more polarizing and hierarchical) or much better (relatively democratic and relatively egalitarian) than such a system. The choice of a new system is the major worldwide political struggle of our times. As for our immediate short-run ad interim prospects, it is clear what is happening everywhere. We have been moving into a protectionist world (forget about so-called globalization). We have been moving into a much larger direct role of government in production. Even the United States and Great Britain are partially nationalizing the banks and the dying big industries. We are moving into populist government-led redistribution, which can take left-of-center social-democratic forms or far right authoritarian forms.”

ft Man in the News: John Maynard Keynes Keynes’ ideas for saving capitalism from itself look increasingly relevant, and his words are a fair assessment of the dangers we face once again – Oct-17 The cautious, prudent wsj on  Oct.18, Bernanke and the Famous Helicopter:

with even the talk of deflation on the horizon, as unlikely as the prospect may be, get ready for more caricatures of Ben Bernanke sitting in a helicopter and dropping cash from the sky.

BEHIND THE CORNER – the possibility, risk of a  SHORT-TERM ACCELERATION, CONSOLIDATION OF THE LONG-TERM DEFLATIONARY GLOBAL REGIME (analysed by Aglietta and Berrebi in their book), that is already governing the global markets (commodities, finance, money, and final products) from 15 years on.  That is, a sharp fall of prices and (consumer, investment, intermediate) demand delays, in a deadly downward spiral. The Fed is worrying about it; although they believe this risk is still low: A NEW RATE REBATE WILL FOLLOW SOON, and this signals they are worrying a lot, and planning “liquidity trap” policies (at zero real interest rates).

THE SPECTRE OF MARX

(Derrida was right)

Marx reappears after so long on top of Reuters news, with a nice picture (I told you so),  in an Oct. 15 column by  Bernd Debusmann:

Karl Marx and the world financial crisis

Those measures included buying stakes in major banks – in effect partial nationalization – and would make Marx smile if he could rise from his grave. In the Communist Manifesto he and his collaborator Friedrich Engels published in 1848, Marx listed government control of capital as one of the ten essential steps on the road to communism. Step five: “Centralization of credit in the hands of the state …” … the control center of the financial market has already begun shifting from New York to Washington. (…) Amid the gloom and anxiety of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, which started in the United States in 1929 and then spread to the rest of the world, there are hopes that Capitalism 2.0 (if it ever comes about) will result in a more equal society. “There is a tremendous opportunity now to narrow the income gap,” says Sam Pizzigati of the Institute for Policy Studies, a Washington think tank.

The ft certifies what markets have announced again and again, with NO rally – after the October 6-10 BLACK WEEK, and the policy answer:

a sudden and massive nationalisation of the entire Atlantic  (US-EU) credit industry.

An interesting debate was occurring in Italy between Alesina and Draghi: Why didn’t you nationalise before? According to Draghi, in August the current scenario was unthinkable.

Shall we suggest the Bank of Italy to read Roudini and de(e)pre(ce)ssion?

ft – Editorial

Saving the banks was just a first step

Published: October 17 2008 20:40 | Last updated: October 17 2008 20:40

The tide, finally, seems to have turned on the banking crisis. More financial institutions will run into trouble, but governments have moved ahead of the crisis and can – at long last – deal with it systematically. If banks now support the real economy by providing credit, more drastic steps – like full-blown nationalisation – ought not be necessary. Despite arguably the worst financial problems in a century, parallels to the Great Depression now seem hyperbolical. That is a serious step forward. We are, however, still heading into a vicious real economy slowdown. Forecasters seem to have been competing in a reverse auction to cut their expectations for growth in the next two years. A prolonged period of stagnation and recession now seems likely for the US, UK and eurozone, likely to be the worst slowdown since the early 1980s. Pain will not be confined to or concentrated in any one sector – patterns of unemployment are impossible to predict. But some industries are particularly vulnerable; makers of hefty durable goods are the first to suffer. Sales of cars, furniture and home appliances are already in free-fall. (…) Governments have, suddenly, risen to the challenges facing them, turning horrifying problems of bank confidence into manageable fiscal woes. They may even need to do the same with problems of growth by expanding public spending.

Better later than never. What is missing in the authoritative London paper, is the implicit class conflict: Hood Robin or Robin Hood? Which fiscal policy? Ask Joe the plumber… The wsj is certifying today (Oct. 18) that the LR deflation (that they ignore) is possibly giving pace to an acute, SR one, the Fed is seriously thinking and even acting about:

Threat of Deflation Looms

Policy makers navigating the U.S. through the global credit crisis may have a new concern on the horizon for 2009: deflation. The risk of deflation remains slim. But the financial shock and a faltering economy can set the stage for a deflationary environment.

Bernanke and the Famous Helicopter

Today’s financial shock and deep economic turmoil are common preconditions for deflation. As reported in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, however, Federal Reserve officials see a broad-based decline in prices as possible though highly unlikely.

The central bank faced the prospect of deflation five years ago, as core inflation (excluding food and energy) and the federal funds rate sat around 1%. … options to stimulate economic growth even if the federal funds rate were to drop to zero. Among them: using communications to shape public expectations about the course of interest rates; increasing the size of the central bank’s balance sheet; and changing the composition of the balance sheet to target particular areas. (The Fed is already doing some of that targeting with a balance sheet that has expanded enormously in recent weeks.)

Fed speeches and papers on deflation: Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here (Bernanke) Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates (Bernanke and Vincent Reinhart) Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound (Bernanke, Reinhart and Brian Sack)

The Microsoft-Google armageddon: or is it desperate webwives?

la resa dei conti: a spaghetti-western, music by morricone

The google-microsoft armageddon animated by yahoo latest agitation, just before death

The news (sing the classic: Yahoo killed the media stars …)

Internet, media stars line up for Yahoo – Yahoo News from AP. April 10, 11:05 AM ET

SAN FRANCISCO – Yahoo Inc.‘s last-ditch efforts to avoid a takeover by Microsoft Corp. appear to be setting the stage for a dramatic finale featuring a rich cast of Internet and media stars.
Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang (Las Vegas, Jan. 7)

Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang poses for a photo in front of the Yahoo booth at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas in this Jan. 7, 2008 file photo.  Internet icon Yahoo Inc., under pressure of a three-week deadline from Microsoft to accept its $41 billion buyout bid, on Monday, April 7, 2008 said it doesn't oppose a deal with the world's largest software maker but wants a better offer. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma, file)

1) Yahoo and AdSense: a NonSense.

Yahooannounced today that it will begin a limited trial using Google’s AdSense for Search program in its search queries. The deal will apply only to traffic from Yahoo.com in the US. The test is expected to last for up to two weeks and will be limited to no more than 3% of Yahoo’s search traffic. Even so, just before being absorbed, they admit being so weak in their core business and strategic technology (!!! ??? !!!). What for? to undersell to Microsoft? They must be just crazy.

2) Yahoo and AOL:

They are close to an agreement to combine their Internet operations, according to the WSJ. Time Warner, the parent of AOL, would reportedly inject the unit and an unspecified amount of cash in exchange for a 20% stake in the combined entity. The agreement would value AOL at $10bn, but would not include the group’s declining dial-up business. Yahoo would then buy back several billion $ worth of stock, at a price between $30 and $40 per share, now traded at $28.50.

The comments

Last battles this week, the Yahoo saga of the multi-saga Armageddon is very close to an end:

– after a battered, defeated, masochist, even incapable of introducing a new version of its stupid and useless OS (producing all their anti-Schumpeterian rents: that is, monopoly rents derived from their anti-innovation and obscurantist policies), a strategically retiring Microsoft’s hyper-desperate move (its $44.6bn Yahoo bid),

– now it’s Yahoo’s turn being so desperate, really crazy and crying (grasping A0L, Google, and whatever else is at hand, in order not to fall into Bill Gates and Steve Ballman’s voracious mouths). The telenovela IS N0W: DESPERATE WEB2 HOUSEWIVES. Just Google, at the moment, keeps nerves under control: but not forever. Since, as Yahoo’s desperation is up, & their escape solutions down, Google will go crazy too, at the idea of one battle won by Ballman.

This and much more from breakingviews.com news:

a) jeff segal: Steve, throw in a few dollars or make the bid all-cash, and this deal is yours. b) robert cyran: scorched internet. If this is all Yahoo’s got, it’s not much … and TV today: Apr.10, Google & News Corp. B.views justintime! This is a Guinness: Google-Microsoft armageddon on Yahoo battlefield in just 53″ !!!

Basics: No Competition authority might ever approve a 90% ad-market share in Google’s hands

More from them, in our static page: weekly breakingviews. These weekly videos are accessible and updated also here, as well from their original site breakingviews.com, and from iTunes.

o8\o4\11 The Weekly View, Apr. 11

1) Ed Hadas; good and bad news from housing markets; as for the latter, there will be another -15% in house prices 2) Alan Greenspan’s self defense? No, thanks! He, alone, was 30% responsible of this disaster. According to IMF guys, who aìhave adopted Roudini’s estimate this week, this makes a public damage of $300 bn (NOTE. The last free market ideologue is definitely rejected out of history: à la poubelle, à la poubelle. But he must pay the bill, before going out)