Subcrime-2 is paneuropean. Attila returns!

We have this blogpost IN ITALIAN, where we reifly argue why and how a  Paneuropean Subcrime-2 is already on the move, and no one else can stop it, TOO LATE. A number of quite interesting consequences, in a von Hayek Angel sense:

an Angel comes to make you pay your wrongdoings, and also those of the Prime and Finance Ministers, or CEO that came before and believed in so called “neo-liberal” (where liberty has no room) bullshits and irresponsibility,  or “bonanzas” and bubbles.

Austria and Sweden, in the West, will be killed by the Eastern Tsunami; they earned mountains of extra-profits, “bonanza” from the transition to capitalism in their neighbour countries. Now they’ll lose everything, and much more than that.

UniCredit is already a re-nationalised Bank (a Guinness: its Credito Italiano component, will have been rescued in both Great Depressions: 1934 and 2009). Aready,  in the market expectations,  otherwise its Friday closure would not have been  but epsilon.

– Let us bet, on InTrade and elsewere, about the parity  € = $ before … (I wan’t tell you my bet date, but I already gave you here A LOT of info, and based ON FUNDAMENTALS; better: ON DYNAMIC ATTRACTORS; as for the date, monitor InTrade, ’cause I move some small capitals on those future markets, and I might make critical mass…).

INCIPIT of the last grapes-of-wrath post:

Svelato il Mistero di Scilla e Cariddi: perché non si fa il Ponte, e  non è solo colpa di Profumo.


1- TEMA.

Erano partiti, i Grandi Banchieri Oligopolisti di Austria, Italia e Svezia in testa, alla conquista dei confini est dell’Impero Europeo. Si sono fatti concorrenza oligopolistica della peggior specie  a botte di credito facile: E  FU SUBCRIME-2, quello tutto pan-europeo. Effetto Frontiera Far East Europe.
Noi lo sapevamo da anni come andava a finire, sia all’Est che nelle Banche Vetero-Fordiste e Ribollite dell’Ovest (quelle che hanno legato a quel sasso che rotola  il loro Destino), e:
1) l’incoscienza di Mr. Profumo ci ha sempre fatto tanta tenerezza (una volta ho provato  anche a dirglielo, eravamo in Assindustria a Vicenza, ma lui non mi ha capito ed ha tirato dritto);
2) l’allegria con cui TUTTA l’Europa sta precipitando nel burrone, insieme sapendolo e senza  saperlo, è molto Pirandelliana. La Merkel sta per essere sbalzata di sella solo perché c’è la crisi (il VERO motivo per cui Mc Cain non ha fermato Obama) e si comporta di conseguenza (decidendo le cose  pro domo sua). Non c’è un solo uomo politico in tutta Europa, che pensi all’Europa. NON UNO SOLO: se ora affonda, ed era comunque inevitabile date le premesse, se lo merita.
Come facevamo a saperlo?  Elementare, Engels. Da una traccia d’indagine nei racconti ironici  e divertiti di Marx, specie nelle corrispondenze con Engels sul Tribune (più vive dei suoi Ricardismi teorici, che spesso sbagliano premesse e conclusioni): di  volta in volta, Frontiere  alimentano i cicli espansivi.

Ed il sistema  più instabile che fu mai creato, funambolizza così la sua lunga durata.

SocGen: an equity meltdown is coming

ITALY REMEMBERS TODAY, WITH PRESIDENTE ALDO MORO, ALL THE TERRORISM VICTIMS. including Italian State Terrorism italian victims (Piazza Fontana 1968, etc.).


30 years ago, on May the 9th,  1978, Washington and Moscow (as we always guessed, but now we know for sure from a vast literature)  joined together (through a Yalta-based compensation room located in Paris: Vanni Molinari’s Hyperion liaison office), commanding the Red Brigades to kill Aldo Moro. The DC leader that, with excess foresight, was about to bring Berlinguer’s PCI into a bipartisan government in Rome (but the Cold War was still on: feeding geopolitical wars, spy “faux frais” and protected markets for Military Industrial Complexes). Moro joined his fellow Enrico Mattei, the ENI CEO killed by the Mafia on behalf of the 7 Sisters: he was even more foresighted than Aldo Moro, therefore they were obliged to kill him much earlier.


ASSASSINI! US imperialists still consider Italy their Mediterranean “big ship”, and Craxi was the only one with the attributes: a 100% NATO supporter, but not a Washington puppet. The fucking imperialists used and abused the DC, but didn’t like much its leaders, if they killed the two most outstanding ones (apart de Gasperi). With such a sense of impunity, as not even hiding the smoking gun. 

Edwards: “We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios like Freddie Krueger”

Someone was doing the last attempts to deny the ongoing global recession: e.g., by arguing:   “there is no such credit crunch nor Bernanke’s accelerator –  in Europe nonfinancial firms are  increasing their debts and paying the spread, since the stock market is as  thin as a fashion model”.

Crunchy credit (FT 2 days ago): “the new consensus is that the monetary easing already administered by the Federal Reserve could combine with the “stimulus” tax rebates that Americans are about to receive to create a V-shaped recovery.” Well, listen to today’s global strategy weekly  by  Albert Edwards to SocGen clients: 

–  We are trying to give our readers the strongest possible warning (ever!) that we are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios like Freddie Krueger.

– We see a global recession unfolding. Nowhere and nothing will be immune.

– One of the clearest impressions that I will take away from working in this industry is how darned bullish everyone wants to be. To be sure, nobody likes to be a party-pooper but the bias towards optimism in this industry is truly staggering…

reported by Paul Murphy on alphaville 

Prof. Roubini confirms his view that there is a bifurcation behind: between either a V or U (or W) recession in the US; but he adds today that its outcomes will reverberate in Asia, Chindia (therefore – by feedback – a U shape might last even longer, and become more L-shaped).

Effects of the US recession on Asian growth

 Nouriel Roubini | May 8, 2008

Will this region decouple from the US economic contraction?

The answer depends on the severity of this recession. If the US recession is short and shallow (a V-shaped recession lasting six months) then there is enough of a domestic growth dynamics in the rest of the world and in Asia that the global economic slowdown would be very modest. But if the recession is more severe (a U-shaped recession lasting 12 to 18 months) then that US contraction, together with the sharp slowdown in the other G8 economies (…) will negatively affect growth in China and Asia.

While oil prices take the first pages going beyond $126 (but, Paolo Leon is right commenting on radio Rai3, that this does not yet bring back nuclear energy to cost effectiveness), a $ bottom is called by the FT: Europe and US unite on stronger dollar.

PARIS STYLE. A virtual guillotine at Moody’s. Their CEO and President will leave in July. WSJ:

Moody’s Investors President Steps Down

Clarkson’s Exit Marks Highest-Profile Casualty to Date

Over Role of Credit-Rating Firms in Subprime Rout