Emma, don Gianni, Giulio and Silvio

Mr Profumo’s  high risk profile is still there (un delirio di onnipotenza da manager-dinosauri del millennio passato: speriamo che la crisi ne spazzi via un bel po’ – a questo serve!).

Although, meanwhile, the Bretton Woods  institutions have spent some hundred billion $ to stop the  CEE domino & save Center – East CBs, the private ones and their Western owners (like  Unicredit). The tragi-comic is that, while they stick to XX Century ultra-neolib (bullshit, or Great Narration if u like it),  the ex-Socialist countries  have been saved only by …

Internationalist Financial Socialism: the 6th  Socialist International, more or less.

AHAHAH! I.e., the XXI Century form of a Communist “spectre of Marx” (Derrida).

They didn’t deserve all that, with our money, stability pursuing and hard work, the bastards: should have tasted the mud of what is pure capitalism at grapes-of-wrath times. Such idiots, still thought-prisoners of their slave socialist past (better IMF to pay shrinks to all of them: value for money), paranoic  ultra-“lib” (sorry to use such a nice name & HIGH thought tradition, Einaudi – Hayek etc.,  for their ideological credos denying even the existence\nature of a global REAL crisis,  and of course not begging pardon for a crazy management of their unsustainable fast growth):

CEE leaders  didn’t deserve a penny, for their thoughts.

But so goes globalisation – what make a difference from begga’ yo’ neibo’ (Keynes’ bestia nera) in the former GreatDep, is that there  is little room for it now, at GreatDep 2 times.

IMF comes to save  East Europe to save Mr Profumo, Italy’s  monster public debt and the € zone stability. By the way, LEX (below)  is right: private debt/GDP ratio is somehow half in Italy compared to the US. What he doesn’t say is that Italy’s sickness has a name: Tremontite.  Only  Italy spends 0 for fiscal stimuli (as if we were …Austrians, no Risorgimento!): Giulio had the courage and determination (I believe he likely ended his fast power career here, because of that) to choose to re-equilibrate what matters most to Berlin, Bruxelles, Frankfurt and London markets, i.e. the public debt/GDP ratio, at a very low GDP level, instead of pushing the GDP earlier, in 2007-2008, in order to allow now for more fiscal manoeuvre (less taxes  and\or  more infrastructures, what China, the US etc. are doing, to match the powerful monetary policies that have succesfully controlled, “un-powered” the stagdeflation cumulative spiral until now).

Yesterday Emma Marcegaglia, speaking in the name of all  the Italian entrepreneurs, expressed all their frank, growth-professional dissent from Tremontite  Malthusanism, but too much A BASSA VOCE to have any impact whatsoever: no blackmail, no electoral boycott (like: we’ll all vote Casini). There is another illness at work here, Berlusconite; Emma has not yet a full power on her  syndicated patrons, even if the Cavaliere consensus  has never been  so low among the Italian bourgeoisie & industrialists  – now beginning to call for a true right and centre-left, out of this stallmate depriving Italy of a guide at harsh times,  while FIAT goes to its worldwar and can manage with  its own  Foreign Affairs, but the small businessmen  ecologies? They are just lost & abandoned to themseleves – i.e. the  ones who were  the Cav. fans until now – but not any more: for elementary,  Darwin-Schumpeterian survival reasons. It’s a POLITCAL divide, from the unmanaged crisis about to decimate the SMEs.

There is an empty space, at the centre  of Italy’s political arena, for a new political force representative of the middle classes, the high bourgeoisie and repressed  high tech animal spirits!!! La DC? A new entry (Montezemolo)?

You measure here ALL the tragic,  historical failure of Berlusconi who WAS really, as he knew  (was told, by  don Gianni) and told,  l’Unto del Signore called for this middle cass re-assembling Mission. But  he miserably failed it: 100%, for a number of reasons. His era already belongs to the past; a mere cohincidence: the death of the great political teologist and teological political scientist, don Gianni (a sublime figure for his teaching and thought, widely appreciated by a transversal audience; and a nitzschean Superman indeed, in his  indomable adventurist impetus:  from “anti-Pope” Card. Siri, to Craxi and the Cavaliere). Unforgettable don  Gianni Baget Bozzo! Riposa in Pace.

LEX
Italy’s economy

Published: May 14 2009 09:17 | Last updated: May 14 2009 20:49

Italy is still sick. Its economy has suffered a series of recessions over the past decade. Yet its labour market remains inflexible and deeply uncompetitive; since 2000, Italian labour costs have risen by 45 per cent. Productivity has also stagnated, while rising annually on average by 1 per cent in the eurozone. As a result, Italian exports – from capital goods to shoes – have suffered particularly badly in this slump. Yet Italy also lacks many features of the credit boom that have ravaged other countries. While government debt is scarily high, at more than 100 per cent of output, household and corporate debt is low. Nor has there been much of a housing boom.

This halfway happy result is reflected in the relative good health of Italy’s two biggest banks, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo. Neither has yet taken government money. Both are funded by large deposit bases. Both are among Europe’s most efficient lenders. And both are still reporting healthy profits. That, though, is where the similarities end. Almost 90 per cent of Intesa’s business is in Italy. UniCredit, by contrast, has sought to escape domestic economic stasis by taking more than half its business abroad. This aggressive foreign expansion, especially into central Europe, has lately taken Unicredit’s share price on a wild ride. (…)

And, from May 11 ft on Poland postponing euro entry –http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e4bf38a8-3e52-11de-9a6c-00144feabdc0.html – Marchionne / Profumo 6-0, 6-0, 6-0.

In one example of mixed signals, Fiat’s factory in southern Poland is churning out small cars for the west European market, and is not planning production cuts.

SocGen: an equity meltdown is coming

ITALY REMEMBERS TODAY, WITH PRESIDENTE ALDO MORO, ALL THE TERRORISM VICTIMS. including Italian State Terrorism italian victims (Piazza Fontana 1968, etc.).

FIRST OF ALL, COMRADE PEPPINO IMPASTATO (i 100 passi), EXECUTED BY THE BLOODY MAFIA THE VERY SAME DAY AS MORO, on the order of Tano Badalamenti.

30 years ago, on May the 9th,  1978, Washington and Moscow (as we always guessed, but now we know for sure from a vast literature)  joined together (through a Yalta-based compensation room located in Paris: Vanni Molinari’s Hyperion liaison office), commanding the Red Brigades to kill Aldo Moro. The DC leader that, with excess foresight, was about to bring Berlinguer’s PCI into a bipartisan government in Rome (but the Cold War was still on: feeding geopolitical wars, spy “faux frais” and protected markets for Military Industrial Complexes). Moro joined his fellow Enrico Mattei, the ENI CEO killed by the Mafia on behalf of the 7 Sisters: he was even more foresighted than Aldo Moro, therefore they were obliged to kill him much earlier.

BUTTIAMO A MARE LE BASI AMERICANE

ASSASSINI! US imperialists still consider Italy their Mediterranean “big ship”, and Craxi was the only one with the attributes: a 100% NATO supporter, but not a Washington puppet. The fucking imperialists used and abused the DC, but didn’t like much its leaders, if they killed the two most outstanding ones (apart de Gasperi). With such a sense of impunity, as not even hiding the smoking gun. 

Edwards: “We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios like Freddie Krueger”

Someone was doing the last attempts to deny the ongoing global recession: e.g., by arguing:   “there is no such credit crunch nor Bernanke’s accelerator –  in Europe nonfinancial firms are  increasing their debts and paying the spread, since the stock market is as  thin as a fashion model”.

Crunchy credit (FT 2 days ago): “the new consensus is that the monetary easing already administered by the Federal Reserve could combine with the “stimulus” tax rebates that Americans are about to receive to create a V-shaped recovery.” Well, listen to today’s global strategy weekly  by  Albert Edwards to SocGen clients: 

–  We are trying to give our readers the strongest possible warning (ever!) that we are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios like Freddie Krueger.

– We see a global recession unfolding. Nowhere and nothing will be immune.

– One of the clearest impressions that I will take away from working in this industry is how darned bullish everyone wants to be. To be sure, nobody likes to be a party-pooper but the bias towards optimism in this industry is truly staggering…

reported by Paul Murphy on alphaville 

Prof. Roubini confirms his view that there is a bifurcation behind: between either a V or U (or W) recession in the US; but he adds today that its outcomes will reverberate in Asia, Chindia (therefore – by feedback – a U shape might last even longer, and become more L-shaped).

Effects of the US recession on Asian growth

 Nouriel Roubini | May 8, 2008

Will this region decouple from the US economic contraction?

The answer depends on the severity of this recession. If the US recession is short and shallow (a V-shaped recession lasting six months) then there is enough of a domestic growth dynamics in the rest of the world and in Asia that the global economic slowdown would be very modest. But if the recession is more severe (a U-shaped recession lasting 12 to 18 months) then that US contraction, together with the sharp slowdown in the other G8 economies (…) will negatively affect growth in China and Asia.

While oil prices take the first pages going beyond $126 (but, Paolo Leon is right commenting on radio Rai3, that this does not yet bring back nuclear energy to cost effectiveness), a $ bottom is called by the FT: Europe and US unite on stronger dollar.

PARIS STYLE. A virtual guillotine at Moody’s. Their CEO and President will leave in July. WSJ:

Moody’s Investors President Steps Down

Clarkson’s Exit Marks Highest-Profile Casualty to Date

Over Role of Credit-Rating Firms in Subprime Rout