Emma, don Gianni, Giulio and Silvio

Mr Profumo’s  high risk profile is still there (un delirio di onnipotenza da manager-dinosauri del millennio passato: speriamo che la crisi ne spazzi via un bel po’ – a questo serve!).

Although, meanwhile, the Bretton Woods  institutions have spent some hundred billion $ to stop the  CEE domino & save Center – East CBs, the private ones and their Western owners (like  Unicredit). The tragi-comic is that, while they stick to XX Century ultra-neolib (bullshit, or Great Narration if u like it),  the ex-Socialist countries  have been saved only by …

Internationalist Financial Socialism: the 6th  Socialist International, more or less.

AHAHAH! I.e., the XXI Century form of a Communist “spectre of Marx” (Derrida).

They didn’t deserve all that, with our money, stability pursuing and hard work, the bastards: should have tasted the mud of what is pure capitalism at grapes-of-wrath times. Such idiots, still thought-prisoners of their slave socialist past (better IMF to pay shrinks to all of them: value for money), paranoic  ultra-“lib” (sorry to use such a nice name & HIGH thought tradition, Einaudi – Hayek etc.,  for their ideological credos denying even the existence\nature of a global REAL crisis,  and of course not begging pardon for a crazy management of their unsustainable fast growth):

CEE leaders  didn’t deserve a penny, for their thoughts.

But so goes globalisation – what make a difference from begga’ yo’ neibo’ (Keynes’ bestia nera) in the former GreatDep, is that there  is little room for it now, at GreatDep 2 times.

IMF comes to save  East Europe to save Mr Profumo, Italy’s  monster public debt and the € zone stability. By the way, LEX (below)  is right: private debt/GDP ratio is somehow half in Italy compared to the US. What he doesn’t say is that Italy’s sickness has a name: Tremontite.  Only  Italy spends 0 for fiscal stimuli (as if we were …Austrians, no Risorgimento!): Giulio had the courage and determination (I believe he likely ended his fast power career here, because of that) to choose to re-equilibrate what matters most to Berlin, Bruxelles, Frankfurt and London markets, i.e. the public debt/GDP ratio, at a very low GDP level, instead of pushing the GDP earlier, in 2007-2008, in order to allow now for more fiscal manoeuvre (less taxes  and\or  more infrastructures, what China, the US etc. are doing, to match the powerful monetary policies that have succesfully controlled, “un-powered” the stagdeflation cumulative spiral until now).

Yesterday Emma Marcegaglia, speaking in the name of all  the Italian entrepreneurs, expressed all their frank, growth-professional dissent from Tremontite  Malthusanism, but too much A BASSA VOCE to have any impact whatsoever: no blackmail, no electoral boycott (like: we’ll all vote Casini). There is another illness at work here, Berlusconite; Emma has not yet a full power on her  syndicated patrons, even if the Cavaliere consensus  has never been  so low among the Italian bourgeoisie & industrialists  – now beginning to call for a true right and centre-left, out of this stallmate depriving Italy of a guide at harsh times,  while FIAT goes to its worldwar and can manage with  its own  Foreign Affairs, but the small businessmen  ecologies? They are just lost & abandoned to themseleves – i.e. the  ones who were  the Cav. fans until now – but not any more: for elementary,  Darwin-Schumpeterian survival reasons. It’s a POLITCAL divide, from the unmanaged crisis about to decimate the SMEs.

There is an empty space, at the centre  of Italy’s political arena, for a new political force representative of the middle classes, the high bourgeoisie and repressed  high tech animal spirits!!! La DC? A new entry (Montezemolo)?

You measure here ALL the tragic,  historical failure of Berlusconi who WAS really, as he knew  (was told, by  don Gianni) and told,  l’Unto del Signore called for this middle cass re-assembling Mission. But  he miserably failed it: 100%, for a number of reasons. His era already belongs to the past; a mere cohincidence: the death of the great political teologist and teological political scientist, don Gianni (a sublime figure for his teaching and thought, widely appreciated by a transversal audience; and a nitzschean Superman indeed, in his  indomable adventurist impetus:  from “anti-Pope” Card. Siri, to Craxi and the Cavaliere). Unforgettable don  Gianni Baget Bozzo! Riposa in Pace.

LEX
Italy’s economy

Published: May 14 2009 09:17 | Last updated: May 14 2009 20:49

Italy is still sick. Its economy has suffered a series of recessions over the past decade. Yet its labour market remains inflexible and deeply uncompetitive; since 2000, Italian labour costs have risen by 45 per cent. Productivity has also stagnated, while rising annually on average by 1 per cent in the eurozone. As a result, Italian exports – from capital goods to shoes – have suffered particularly badly in this slump. Yet Italy also lacks many features of the credit boom that have ravaged other countries. While government debt is scarily high, at more than 100 per cent of output, household and corporate debt is low. Nor has there been much of a housing boom.

This halfway happy result is reflected in the relative good health of Italy’s two biggest banks, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo. Neither has yet taken government money. Both are funded by large deposit bases. Both are among Europe’s most efficient lenders. And both are still reporting healthy profits. That, though, is where the similarities end. Almost 90 per cent of Intesa’s business is in Italy. UniCredit, by contrast, has sought to escape domestic economic stasis by taking more than half its business abroad. This aggressive foreign expansion, especially into central Europe, has lately taken Unicredit’s share price on a wild ride. (…)

And, from May 11 ft on Poland postponing euro entry –http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e4bf38a8-3e52-11de-9a6c-00144feabdc0.html – Marchionne / Profumo 6-0, 6-0, 6-0.

In one example of mixed signals, Fiat’s factory in southern Poland is churning out small cars for the west European market, and is not planning production cuts.

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2B optimistic: this is the beginning of the end

BREAKING NEWS

March 2, 2009

wsj
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 300 points to end below the 6800 mark for the first time in nearly 12 years, as a broad-based selloff seized the markets, sending shares lower in every sector. The S&P 500 briefly dropped below 700 for the first time since October 1996 before ending just at that level amid across-the-board declines, including drops of more than 6% in basic materials, energy, financial and industrial sectors. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 4%.

For more information, see: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123599406229708501.html?mod=djemalertMARKET

I REVEAL THE TRUTH:

ANGELA IS THE ANGEL

Yesterday, sent by the Aparecida no one is keen to listen to anymore,  the Angelo della Vendetta started  cutting some heads and share values, but it was only the beginnig of  the end. The necessary “Visible Foot” freeing markets from lame ducks (the von Hayek – and  – Schumpeter, neo Austrian Foot) has just started kicking off, and will have a couple of years of hard work ahead. The ecomomic “curtain wall” has not yet come down: then the neoAustrain Angel will have no pity, not even for her country of origin (Austria); it will be CEE (Central East Europe) Tsunami soon, and little will stay alive in Western Europe, after her mission.

On the other coast of the Atlantic, there is no reason for DJIA, now that 7000 is over, to land asymptotically or not towards 6000: still, the Western Actives would B by far over-valued, at 6000 (down from top 11,000).

a) DJIA passed yesterday, in a quantum jump below 6800 (My God!) the 7000 PSYCHOLOGICAL threshold of “depression”, i.e.  Wall Street finally cut the Gordian Node (FAQ: is this a deep recession or a depression? The latter. Now we know:

the answer, my friend,

is blowing in the East European wind.

For no apparent reason, in Wall Street: just ordinary administration – adjusting the e’s in the p/e ratios, to what one can reasonably guess for next Autumn, when all things that might have gone wrong, will have (Murphy’s Law, a secularised divulgation version of Greek Tragedy’s Destiny).

b) European, namely Italian banks are just disappearing, day after day from markets. This is no violation, as most people say (banks capitalisation below book value?), on the contrary: A STRICT APPLICATION OF THE FUNDAMENTALS. Such;

giant, monopolistic, hyper-speculative, anti-social, caparbiously authoritarian and highly inefficient with their personnel, vandalised by ignorant managers, enemies of the Territory where they just steal surplus value (no help to innovation, to anything) banks

should have never been born, as they did UNDER THE CRAZY, ANTI- ECONOMIC, MONOPOLISITIC CONCENTRATION WAVE of the New Economy, version 1 and 2, in the last two ABEs, Artificial Bubble Economies, 1993-2007.

Mr Profumo (legally and apparently the UniCredit CEO, still) is already at the job office to look for another place: but

FAQ – Who will hire such a crazy man, that ruined  in just one only stupid Ego trip three  healthy  banks full of Tradition (Cassa di Risparmio di Verona- Vicenza – Belluno- Ancona, Credito Italiano, and Banca di Roma)???

ANSWER: We want them back, our 3 banks, and we’ll get them before Summer. The Angel is working for Justice to triumph, on this Earth.

I knew in advance, but I did not want to disseminate pessimism: last week rally on Italian Banks was artificial, home made and effimero. A literal Tsunami is charging its batteries very speedy, then it will lead to the “SUBCRIME no.2 – The European version” Vendetta dell’Angelo Sterminatore (who appears to have occupied the soul of Angela Merkel, dictating her what she must do, in such a way as Destiny requires):

– 1. a default of the majority of the 10 CEE States unprotected by the Eurozone;

– 2. a national economy collapse, and consequent quasi-default or default of  the Austrian State (only by the immediate, direct consequences of CEE toxic credits, by applying a multiplier 2 to Dansk Bank scenario 3: Austria will lose 22% of its neutral GNP, this year; as we say below, with a multipler 3 it makes -33%; then self-reinforcing dynamics will carry on further the Visible Foot job);

-3.  the forthcoming closure, and “week-end X nationalisation” of the majority of large Continental European Banks (British Island ones are already kaputt: RBS is a Gordon Brown’s property, Barclays is 90% down in capitalization. from £90 to 8; Switzerland is  in search of diversifying out of Credit, which after all, ex post was not its natural Vocation; after weekend “X”, there will be an ephemeral rally on Swiss Banks, the  only private ones left, but it will not last long). More in:

– Dansk Bank Research last report, and continuous, daily information flow in their precious site, an Observatory on  € subcrime: http://www-2.danskebank.com/danskeresearch

– and the interactive graphic ft representation of Dansk Bank’s € subcrime scenarios.

REFERENCES: go to last week’s euro_exposure_to_cee_230209 Dansk Bank Research impact study, put into a graph by the Financial Times. Please note:

a) Dansk Bank worst scenario (alike the Asian crisis 1997) will B the best one soon;

b) this report just estimates Banks’ sofferenze, i.e. the 1st round of money-real transmission mechanisms, and repeated positive feedback interactions (ping-pong like). The full impact is, as usual, larger by an order of magnitude, so that the Austrian GDP, e.g., (-11% according to the Report) might approximately and optimistically (multiply x 3) lose no less than 1/3 this year, as a CEE Subcrime full impact consequence. Being so close to Austrian borders as we are, is no health.