Why economists and sociologists are not so libertarians, and vice versa

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fenzo.arcangeli%2Fposts%2F10210558887463209&width=500

ABSTRACT, and PREFACE

Although a social scientist and a libertarian will often meaningfully talk to each other, sometimes agree on issues, or even struggle together for some freedom-and-justice  targets mix, their inner logic will systematically diverge. I argue here.

What follows, in Italian, is also an epistemic meditation on a generous but failed attempt to create a new libertarian movement in Italy: “Fare per fermare il declino” (Let’s do something to stop the decline).

On the one hand, even an ethically strongly motivated social scientist puts, as a MetaNorm, Science methods,  networks (visible and invisible colleges), norms and trust – on a higher rank than his own ideological preferences.

On the other hand, even the most learned and specialized libertarian as I am too in some respect (perhaps), “en tant que libertaire” (s)he would stick to axioms, beliefs she’s not ready to put into that Washing Machine. i.e.,  the scientific experimental (lab, economtric, sociometric and\or thought experiment), trial and eventually “phalsification” Popperian preconcepts-washing processes.

Then, there is the worst of contemporary “culture”:

Derrida- Foucault- US “French Theory”

(the PostModern sub-culture excluding; forgetting the only one today’s great French Philosopher, Emmanuel Levinas: even if he was a Derrida’s magister! And the #PostMoMobs read a paper on him in On Grammatology); they will object that we’re #PaleoPositivists: see Helen Pluckrose @HPluckrose and discussion on her post here:  https://areomagazine.com/2017/03/27/how-french-intellectuals-ruined-the-west-postmodernism-and-its-impact-explained/

Ref.s

1 François Cusset 2003, French Theory: How Foucault, Derrida, Deleuze, & Co. Transformed the Intellectual Life of the United State. La Découverte;

2 bruno latour 2004, http://www.bruno-latour.fr/sites/default/files/89-CRITICAL-INQUIRY-GB.pdf  – Why Has Critique Rub Out of Steam? …, Critical Inquiry 30 (Winter 2004)

3 Helen Pluckrose @HPluckrose. March 27, 2017 post:
How French “Intellectuals” Ruined the West: Postmodernism and Its Impact, Explained

I wrote on fb today:
Enzo Arcangeli presso Instituto de Economia da Unicamp.
1 h · San Paolo, Brasile ·

Delle sostanziali differenze tra economisti- sociologi, e liberali.

I primi, se sono serii e on fiatin Popperiani, sono laici verso qualsiasi forma-modalita’ delle istituzioni sociali possa funzionare meglio, nei diversi contesti e scopi.
As usual in Science, possono sbagliare clamorosamente, come il povero Aoki di Stanford con la sua J firm, formalizzata ok, ma gabellata per geneticamente superiore, in quanto piu’ lungimirante della M firm (proprio per il difetto della J di farsi credito da se’ e non dover fare affatto profitti di BP!), ahime’ proprio poco prima che Japan e Keiretsu arrivassero a fine corsa.

I liberali delle varie costellazioni della galassia, tendono ad ipostatizzare i mercati perfetti, e questo cum juicio ci sta [poi arrivano, se del caso, le evidenze empiriche di non contendibilita’ o cmq fallimenti].
La cosa che io trovo in loro piu’ intellett. disonesta e’ il parlare AS IF vi fosse un unico Capitalismo. Ossia, praticano il “capitalismo scientifico” proprio come i soc-dem tedeschi fecero parlare Marx morto di un ancor piu’ idiota “socialismo scientifico”. Ed il capitalismo induista del Gujarat sorto prima che in GB, come lo facciamo rientrare nel Calvinismo?

Gli economisti e sociologi partono dalle loro piu’ diverse ideologie personali (che entrano legittimamante nei Lakatosian research programmes, or Kuhnian paradigms), ma poi strada facendo si contaminano, sono stocasticamente attratti da analisi rigorose, metodologie validate ed evidenze empiriche robuste. Salvo le code di economisti troppo “di scuola”, o la VERGOGNOSA iattura dei residui marxisti in sociologia.
Ad es. il cult dei liberali, che si vede bene non lo conoscano ne’ biograficamente ne’ personalmente (io lo incontrai quando insegnammo assieme a Cargese), Coase arriva laburista negli States e proprio per questo si focalizza sul momento essenziale SOCIALISTA dell’organizzazione (opposta al mercato) che gli altri ignoravano.
Facendo cosi’ una delle 10 piu’ importanti scoperte delle scienze sociali del ‘900.

The Nature of the firm.

Enzitoriale dell’8 dic. 2014. Per un Assolutismo illuminato

In morte della democrazia.

Per un AI, Assolutismo Illuminato

Podemos, volemos farci infinocchiare dall’ultimo populista ignorante e furbastro che passa per la via? Eh no, eh!

unclesam

ABSTRACT. Per un Assolutismo illuminato

E’ fallita\finita l’educazione, motore stesso del Moderno: la macchina a vapore che ha sollevato le menti. Ergo la democrazia NON ESISTE PIU’.

Essendo i liberismi, e soprattutto, miserabilmente, nell’ignominia i socialismi falliti ambedue (ovvio: eran gemelli monozigoti) in modo clamoroso. DEFINITIVO!

E non emergendo ancora sostanziali novità nel mercato politico (in quello delle idee e della ricerca si, eccome!), fioriscono i populismi più sciatti ed a contenuto 0.

L’aveva detto SUBITO il più grande storico vivente, I. Wallerstein nel 2008: siamo in una nuova Grande Depressione  e si confronteranno di nuovo 2 famiglie di progetti politici di Lungo Periodo per il consenso (come i Keynesismi Mussoliniani versus Roosveltiani tra le 2 guerre):

> i post-socialisti

> ed i neo – populisti.

MORE: l’Enzitoriale prosegue in http://wp.me/pgGcc-x1

non produrremo più niente: non in Francia

giuseppe armenia POST-PELLIZZA_s

Non abbiamo nessuna rivendicazione. Nulla. Non ci aspettiamo niente da voi. Fate quello che volete.
Ma state attenti: non produrremo più niente, quanto meno non in Francia. Non creeremo più imprese, non scriveremo più musica e non pubblicheremo più libri.
Non avrete più nulla da tassare, non un centesimo. Dovrete trovare un altra soluzione. Senza di noi.
Noi smetteremo di sfruttarvi, di vendervi dei prodotti, che apparentemente non desiderate.
Se volete un lavoro per poter riempire la vostra dispensa, chiedete allo Stato.
Se volete un tetto sotto il quale dormire, chiedete allo Stato.
Se volete dei vestiti per proteggervi dal freddo, chiedete allo Stato.
Dopo tutto non è questo che volete?
Noi smetteremo di guadagnare soldi. Noi vi lasciamo i vostri euro.
Prendeteveli tutti, fino all’ultimo e assicuratevi di non averne dimenticati.
Quando avrete fame, i nostri ristoranti saranno chiusi, potrete mangiarvi i vostri euro.
Quando i tetti crolleranno, potrete ripararvi sotto i vostri euro.
Quando i vostri figli si ammaleranno, date loro qualche euro.
Finalmente potrete vivere in un mondo che avete tanto sognato.
Un mondo senza di noi, senza sfruttatori, senza marketing, senza mercato, senza capitalismo, senza libertà.
Potrete infine sperimentare voi stessi le conseguenze logiche della vostra morale.
Potrete infine decrescere e sacrificarvi, voi e i vostri figli, per un ideale più nobile che la rincorsa del vostro benessere materiale.
Ma tutto ciò sarà senza di noi. Non ci saremo più a pagare le vostre fatture.
Ci accontenteremo di rimanere lì ad osservare il crollo del vostro mondo. Non faremo nulla.
E non preoccupatevi per noi.
Noi non abbiamo bisogno di voi.

*Scritta dagli industriali francesi ad Hollande

Disegno: di Giuseppe Armenia. Il 4° Stato (di Pellizza da Volpedo) se ne va, non ha bisogno di voi.

club paradise: schiavi nel Tavoliere delle Puglie

Nel deserto che sarà tra pochi decenni l’infuocato Tavoliere, rifletteranno il sole le ossa bianche degli schiavi che vi  avevano lavorato le ultime terre fertili.

L’economia (neo-) marxista contemporanea ha sviluppato un importante teorema, di grande portata storica e capacità interpretativa della intima natura del modo di produzione e distribuzione capitalistico (macchina di innovazione-ingiustizia):

la estrazione di plusvalore relativo (da progresso tecnico-organizzativo: oggi ICT, bio-nanotech, carbon-saving energy ed organizzazioni fluide) e’ TENDENZIALENTE proporzionale a, ed accompagnata da (o in qualche altro nodo della stessa rete-filiera che innova, o in altre reti e settori c.d. “arretrati” ossia a più lenta adesione, di volta in volta, ai paradigmi tecnologici pervasivi) una eguale  crescita (per meccanismi di trasmissione via istituzioni e lotte sociali; moneta, valori e mercati) del plusvalore assoluto da sfruttamento brutale, disumano ed estremo, senza nemmeno i falsi, ipocriti e miserabili “diritti” liberal-borghesi di lorsignori:

a) indurimento delle condizioni di erogazone di forza lavoro: l’allungamento della settimana lavorativa, ed il perseguimento della produttività a base di assassinio, comando,  costrizione psichica, distruzione militare delle organizzazioni dei lavoratori, soprusi, terrore  e violenza fisica;

b) fascismo anti-salariale (dall’operazione condotta da Mussolini negli anni ’20, poi dal Reaganismo negli anni ’80): la confisca e rapina salariale (e di altri redditi da lavoro), per abbassamento della paga al di sotto del livello minimo di riproduzione e sussistenza della forza lavoro, inteso in senso storico-geografico (non il solo pugno di riso, di cui vivono 1,5 miliardi di esseri sub-umani, pari a quasi la metà della forza lavoro);

c) le para-schiavitù contemporanee (area grigia tra lavoro nero e lavoro schiavo), che sono state promosse su larga scala: dalla filosofia politica del Liberismo di Miltie Friedman,  dalle (opposte: tra il dire e il fare …) politiche interventiste e  statalistiche unilateralmente pro-Capitale e\o pro-Finanza di rapina del Reaganismo, e dalla globalizzazione selvaggia della New Economy Clintoniana (ossia, dagli stessi uomini e donne che oggi fanno parte della Amministrazione Obama, e stessi consiglieri);

d) la schiavitù strictu sensu come definita scientificamente – il lavoro non libero (classe di  casi estremi sub a) ergo non salariato (casi estremi sub b, sino alla remunerazione nulla). Poiche’, nell’analisi DEFINITIVA di Marx su questo punto, il lavoro salariato pre-suppone la “liberazione” delle classi umili dalla propria associazione con i mezzi di sussistenza e di produzione: che esse siano distaccate da artigianato urbano, vita contadina rurale  e condizioni servili o di schiavitù, per essere obbligate a vendere la propria forza lavoro sui mercati del lavoro.  Per contro-tendenza, la schiavitù (come le Comunità) e’ una delle varie forme di persistenza sistemica di forme pre-capitalistiche, analizzata da Marx nel famoso brano dei Grundgrisse.

Quest’ultima, la vera e popria schiavitù impiega oggi grosso modo il 10% della forza lavoro mondiale; potrei essere più preciso consultando Valter Zanini, sociologo unipd, le cui definizioni e quindi stime quantitative differiscono in parte da quelle “ufficiali” dell’ILO di Ginervra; ma ricordo che quello e’ l’ordine di grandezza). Se dovessimo verificare empiricamente la validità o meno del TEOREMA NEO- MARXIANO, dovremmo attenderci che IN MEDIA un 50% della forza lavoro sia erogata in condizioni di applicazione del progresso tecnico (in primis il capitale ICT, in Occidente sempre più combinato con lavoro autonomo cognitivo e creativo, e meno a L salariato – come analizzato da Sergio Bologna), l’altro 50% nelle condizioni a+b+c+d sopra (in % variabili tra paesi e settori).

Facendo i conti, il teorema marxiano risulta  peccare di ottimismo: oggi, grazie a 25 anni di Reagan-Clintonismo di destra e sinistra, si estrae plusvalore assoluto da ben oltre il 50% della forza lavoro globale.

Di fatto, per vari motivi concomitanti e  processi cumulativi, mutualmente rafforzati, gli ultimi 25 anni della “New Gilded Age (Nuova Era Corporativa)” hanno applicato ed  inasprito la LEGGE DELLA PROPORZIONALITA’, s-bilanciandone e s-proporzionandone però gli effetti a favore di schiavismo in senso stretto e lato, e l’associato PLUSVALORE ASSOLUTO, DA TALLONE DEL COMANDO E DEL RICATTO.
Contro tutte  le legittime, ma anche falsificabili  teorie Schumpeteriane, che qui crollano in capacità previsiva (rispetto a Ricardo-Sraffa-Pasinetti, Marx, Kalecki-Keynes-Minsky e gli stessi costrutti neoclassici), rivelando una debolezza teorica complessiva, una estrema fragilità e parzialità. Ancor peggio se la cava, e la realtà spazza via senza  pietà tutta la  sciocca vulgata Schumpeteriana nei guru, media e sociologi di punta: l’era digitale (Castells), le classi creative (Florida) e tutte quelle Grandi Narrazioni tardo-Moderne per prenderci in giro. In questi 25 anni:
1) POCO PV RELATIVO.  L’aborto deflazionistico (Aglietta e Berrebi 2007) della Onda Lunga ICT, ha compresso il PV relativo molto al di sotto della sua  crescita potenziale.
2) TANTO PV ASSOLUTO,  autentiche “bolle specuative” di PV ASSOLUTO ESTORTO, DI TRASFERIMENTO (da ceti produttivi a Rentiers) E DI RAPINA, come meglio di tutti ha intuito  David Harvey. Infatti contemporaneamente, nello stesso processo politico-economico e suoi cicli brevi, la insostenibile tassa Reaganiana sul  Terzo Mondo ha dato il via ad una serie di processi economico-creditizi e finanziari  sempre più insostenibili, con sbocco inevitabile, QUASI-PROGRAMMATO in  una deflazione globale tendenziale (che oggi esplode in forma acuta).

Ciò ha generato una esplosione e fioritura di “100 fiori” di PV assoluto, ad esempio nelle 2 grandi potenze ex-comuniste: le donne russe, dalle donne sinora più liberate della storia umana, alla prostituzione (si vedano le inchieste di Loretta Napoleoni, su “L’internazionale” e nel suo ultimo libro-inchiesta); i contadini affamati e senza Welfare, cinesi ed indiani, inseriti nella catena dei mercati del lavoro regionali ed  inter-regionali.

Come mi diceva ieri  un amico, dandomi una LEZIONE DI BIO-ECONOMIA: “io  non so cosa sia questa crisi; io la vivo da 8 anni, da quando cambiando vari lavori, mentre l’€ raddoppiava molti prezzi,  il mio stipendio e’ sceso da 2500 a 1500 €”. Quindi il suo salario reale e potere d’acquisto si e’ più che dimezzato.
PER EFFETTO DI UNA POMPA DI PV ASSOLUTO, IL CUI POTENZIALE E’ GENERATO DAL MECCANISMO DI SQUILIBRIO GLOBALE 2\1 tra OFFERTA E DOMANDA DI FORZA LAVORO. Un potenziale che non si riassorbirà per decenni, rendendo i Capitalismi distributivamente-ecologicamente-finanziariamente-generazionalmente insostenibili (Giorgio Ruffolo), e facendo proseguire indefinitamente questa Onda Anomala di PV assoluto, che comprime il progresso tecnico, e  smentisce i Capitalismi nel loro ossimoro definitorio ed ideologico: sono SOLO INGIUSTI; E TUTT’ALTRO CHE INNOVATIVI, semmai il contrario. Oggi come oggi, si direbbe che questa Super-Bolla di PV assoluto debba durare sino alla metà di questo secolo. A questo punto, pare difficile credere che il Modo di Produzione-Distribuzione stesso possa reggere in tali condizioni di grave incoerenza sistemica, assenza di regimi di regulation:
i capitalismi hanno i secoli contati come dice Ruffolo, o i decenni?

2 CASI STUDIO DI SCHIAVI.

1 — Nikola Chesnais (figlio dell’economista François) ha da poco realizzato un premiato ed eccezionale documentario nel NE Brasiliano, sulla schiavitù rurale.

2 — Stanno trasmettendo a radio3 (percorsi@rai.it) un servizio sull’Inferno dei vivi IN ITALIA (il Bel Paese di cacca non sfugge alla citata legge del plusvalore):

–  alcune decine  di polacchi sono scomparsi nel nulla nel Tavoliere: molti  saranno stati già ammazzati, altri sono morti stremati di lavoro schiavo; altri ancora vivono (per modo di dire) ancora, schiavi del lavoro forzato nei campi; venivano a guadagnare pochi € per il matrimonio della sorella, o per la vecchiaia dei genitori.

La prima denuncia della schiavitù in Puglia, l’hanno fatta 3 studenti polacchi nell’estate 2005: uno di loro ora vuol tornare in Polonia per studiare Ingegneria. Si chiama Iakub “Kuba” Celski ed adesso si fa  chiamare Iacopo. Sente ancora i morsi della fame di 3 anni fa. Se uno cadeva, lavorando 14-16 ore al giorno nei campi senza mangiare e senza bere, veniva lasciato li. Il lavoro continuava. Come in tutti i racconti di schiavitù e post-schiavitù:  mi ricorda infatti le storie  dei neri “liberati” dai campi di cotone, che costruivano ferrovie negli Stati del profondo Sud, e cantavano (singolarmente, non in collettivo) i primi blues della disperazione, eccheggiando una ritmica e musicalità di antichi canti pastorali del Sahel, dei loro avi.

I tre amici leggono un annunzio su un giornale polacco ed arrivano di notte ad Ortanova, dove vengono sequestrati dai caporali de “il cane”, un Kapò polacco tatuato con precedenti oscuri, facente funzione di luogotenente nella fattoria “Club Paradise” di Ortanova, basata sul lavoro schiavo. Il giornale prometteva 3  € all’ora, invece la paga e’  a cottimo, ma la ditta la versa ai caporali che di rado lasciano sfuggire qualcosa agli schiavi. Questi lavorano gratis a ritmi che pure nell’incivile Mezzogiorno non si usavano più da generazioni.

I tre riescono a scappare, hanno ancora i cellulari e chiamano in Polonia, vengono salvati prima che i capò-caporali li riprendano; si arriverà alla denuncia ai CC di Foggia Centrale e quindi  all’arresto di alcuni criminali. Seguiranno altre 700 denunce. Oggi nel Tavoliere e’ crollato nel nulla com’e’ giusto accadesse  il distretto dei divani e del mobile, basato solo sulla price competition, e  di lavoro proprio non ce n’e’.

Il capitalismo e’ cosi: se c’e’ sviluppo, i padroni  trattano  uomini e donne come bestie appena sia loro possibile, e consumano, distruggono interi  ecosistemi delicati (per carenza d’acqua, e prossima desertificazione) e di pregio come il Tavoliere; se non c’e’ sviluppo, si crepa di fame in modo più dolce, senza lavorare.

All’inizio della trasmissione hanno ricordato un bel libro di Tommaso Fiore “il cafone all’inferno”; dopo un pò che e’ arrivato li, il cafone pensa “tutto sommato si sta meglio qui che a lavorare la terra, anche se i diavoli ti violentano l’anima”. Ad un certo punto, Lucifero decide di de-localizzarsi nel Tavoliere.

E li sta attualmente: per un polacco liberato ed uno scannatoio chiuso, se se ne saranno aperti altri 10 specializzati  in bestie dalla pelle abronzata.

Nel deserto che sarà tra pochi decenni l’infuocato Tavoliere, rifletteranno il sole le ossa bianche degli schiavi che vi  avevano lavorato le ultime terre fertili.

doctor doom’s 2009

Nouriel Roubini has now a weekly column on Forbes, where some synthesis is made of the much richer rge material (unique, very deep and informative news “clusters”; regular blogs or interventions by some of the best macroeconomists). This is an invitation to read regularly, as an amateur, both “Doctor Doom” Forbes column, and the free sections of rge-monitor.com (while a professional economist is obliged to subscribe to rge):

Doctor Doom

A Global Breakdown Of The Recession In 2009

Nouriel Roubini, 01.15.09, 12:01 AM EST

Forecasting pain, from the U.S. to Australia.

pic

With the industrial world already in outright recession and the emerging world navigating toward a hard landing (growth well below potential), I expect global growth to be flat (around -0.5%) in 2009.

This will be the worst global recession in decades as the fallout of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression took a toll first on the U.S. and then–via a variety of channels–on the rest of the global economy.

Here is a global breakdown of my forecast.

The United States economy is only halfway through a recession that started in December 2007 and will be the longest and most severe in the post-war period. U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout all of 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5%.

One last look at 2008 will reveal a very weak fourth quarter with GDP growth contracting about -6% in the wake of a sharp fall in personal consumption and private domestic investment.

I see the real GDP growth contraction playing out through the year as follows: first quarter 2009: -5%; second quarter 2009: -4%; third quarter 2009: -2.5%; fourth quarter 2009: -1%–adding up to a yearly real GDP growth of -3.4% for the U.S. in 2009.

This forecast is much worse than the current consensus forecast seeing a growth recovery in the second half of 2009; I also predict significantly weak growth recovery–well below potential–in 2010. (…)

The latest cyclical upswing in the Eurozone was largely driven by a temporary but powerful boost to domestic investment from disappearing risk premia in the aftermath of the adoption of the single currency and by external demand from a buoyant world economy.

Both demand sources fizzled out by the second half of 2008, leaving the Eurozone as a whole and its largest members exposed to diverging deleveraging patterns in the face of suboptimal EMU-wide automatic fiscal stabilizer mechanisms.

The latest record-low readings of leading and sentiment indicators point to a severe recession ahead in 2009 that shapes up to be worse than the 1992-93 crisis. For the Eurozone, I expect a below-consensus contraction in real GDP of around -2.5% (…)

We believe China will experience a hard landing in 2009, with growth unlikely to exceed 5%, a sharp slowdown from the 10% average of the last five years. The reversal of capital flows and high credit cost will pull down India‘s growth significantly, to around 5% in 2009 from an estimated 6% in 2008.

END  OF NOURIEL’S QUOTATION

This graph, now in the front page of the Greenberg geo-eco think thank of the CFR (where we always read two of our favourite blogs: Follow the money by the International Economics “Sherlock Holmes” Brad Setser (*); and the delightful political incorrectness of  Amity Shlaes’ Forgotten man: healthy antidotes to FDR or BO’s santifications), is quite informative.

RAQ (Rarely Asked Q.) Did u know, before having looked at it, that the 2nd NewEconomy bubbbbbble (2003-07)  was much more  pervasive cross-country, than the so much advertised 1st one (1994-2001)?

2growths_oneline_cfr

(*) We are much more than friends, in brotherhood from decades with Otaviano Canuto, himself an rge blogger, Catou and all their beautiful family. Nonetheless, our esteem of Otaviano as an economist made a big jump upward a few weeks ago, when we discovered, in an exchange of comments on a recent post, he had … something to teach to Brad. Before, we believed anything alike impossible, i.e. beyond human limits.

US bank runs: who told a systemic meltdown is over? IT IS NOT

CAN YOU HEAR SITTING BULL’S WAR-CRY? WELL, THE LITTLE BIG HORN OF SHADOW FINANCE IS ON. After that, in Autumn non-financial co. will start going bankrupt.

Hard 2 read and 2 believe: but this is REALLY the NYT front page, day after Little Big Horn!!! Thanks the sublime NYT serivce: On this Day  (Copyright 2007 the NYT Company). 25 June 1876. Col. George A. Custer and his 7th Cavalry were wiped out by Sitting Bull’s Sioux and Cheyenne Indians in the Battle of Little Big Horn, Montana. 

FACTS, NOT FAIRY TALES!

June 18 update. Alphaville: HOT AUTUMN, banks’ bears warnings 

Deeprecession has a 1 day lead on the RBS mail, 2 days on Alphaville

Bearish analysts are out in force. Bob Janjuah [credit strategist] of RBS, in an email on Tuesday, warns of a global stock and credit crash in the next few months; with the S&P 500 likely to lose up to a quarter of its value. In credit, Janjuah sees the iTraxx soaring to 130/150 and the iTraxx Crossover to 650/700. (…) Wall Street should rally through early July before succumbing to the twin pressures of high oil and high inflation – the first painful spasms of a recession. The RBS team also point specifically to the limited range of options open to central banks. The point is taken up by analysts at Morgan Stanley. A note from last week – “1992 redux” – by the bank’s European banking team – warns of potential for a “catastrophic event” on the horizon to match the European monetary crisis of the early nineties.

MS: We find striking similarities between the transatlantic macro tensions that built up in the early 1990s and those that are accumulating again today. In both cases, monetary authorities took opposite options on both sides of the Atlantic: stabilising output in the US, and stabilising prices in Europe. Macro tensions caused a major currency crisis in Europe in 1992. Will history repeat itself? 1992 Redux - MS note

Just after this entry, posted by Sam Jones on June 18th, 2008 at 11:07,

another contemporary Alphaville post, by Robert Cookson at 13:24 adds:

Mr Janjuah’s peers at other European banks agreed it was inevitable that credit markets would deteriorate later in the year, potentially quite dramatically, when large companies started to default on their debt. However, most said that RBS was a touch aggressive in forecasting that turmoil would strike as soon as August. (According to one strategist)  many struggling companies would be able to limp along into 2009 before falling apart.

The discussion is only about time frame: dead bodies might keep walking to 2009.

Original post

FACTS, not a propaganda trying to delay the redde rationem, an always imminent RUN on US FINANCIAL BANKS  (spada di Damocle).

1) we are still, and only, in the beginning (since end 2007) of a global “subcrime” recession, rooted in historical and structural processes in the creation and appropriation of economic value:

1a) the peculiar way a Reagan-microelectronics Kondratiev Long Wave (KLW) went burst (see Carlota Perez – for full references: goto  subcrimebiosocialscience1.pdf). We mean, not just one bubble or another went burst, but a unique, entire, historical chance of sustainable progress (late capitalisms could not grasp) was missed by humanity and the Earth. For enriching the pockets of a few hundred billionaires. A Donald Duck world.

 

1b) How did such a quantum technological jump go wrong and lost? It was killed on the altar of such Medieval rites as: b1) enrich a handful of global rentiers and rape an obsolete Middle Class (no democracy to be socially enveloped any more); b2) fuck the Russian mil.-ind. complex and “ally”, more exactly link up with China; b3) tell people there is laissez faire and democracy, while MONOPOLIES RULE in thanato-political liberal régimes or tyrannies (Adam Smith and Loretta Napoleoni, Michel Foucault and Roberto Esposito). c) We live for decades to come, a generation or two, in a new (post-Reagan and MPUs) Deflationary Long Wave: a  byproduct of the Greenspan-Clinton irresponsible, witchcraft manipulations of the declining US economy in the 1990s (Aglietta-Berrebi, Chesnais). Hopefully, Bill will not come back as first lady!

2) Last episode of such a deep, structural process in value production and circulation (Marx, Capital, Book 2): the subcrime-based shadow finance, was meant to enlarge the circuits of over-accumulation in search of an outlet. The target was scientifically selected: afro-american bobos and regular Latino workers (at least $4000 of family earnings, in order to steal them 3000-3500 per month !!! see case studies in the quoted subcrime … .pdf). Systemic scope, only way to create a “growth” illusion, in a CRAZY RENTIERS WORLD sunk into deflation and depression:

2A) RAPE the first (quasi-affluent blacks) and second tier (latinos) of people still wiling to enter, via patriotic-sacre housing property, the middle class.

 

2B) From stealing their homes, hopes, lives and wages: create a fixed material point, that the fantasy of the casino economy will multiply some thousand times in  “assets” (in fact, property rights on a chain leading at the end to the real asset: Chesnais; this is why someone had to be RAPED at chain end), to be bought by the Rentiers èlite savings, out of the surplus value they expropriated from productive value chains.

 

3) 3 months ago, in March 2008 the US Bush Adm. and the Fed JOINTLY delayed a meltdown of the 5 US pure financial banks, likely spreading quickly into a global meltdown, by bailing out Bear Stearns. Now it’s Lehman last bell, death time. Third to be soldout will be Merill Lynch soon (the FT tells BofA wants it), and fourth Morgan Stanley, likely to be historically reunited in the (JP) Morgan mother house. Only Goldman Sachs will survive this Little Big Horn. We do not invent such an order: it is written in their books, leverage ratios and the premium rates they pay (see graph). Rentiers carry on telling (not believing, they are smart), and THEIR MEDIA keep echoing every day as a litany: a systemic meltdown is over. You always find this proposition in newspapers, with redundancy. Ask Roubini: he knows and tells you the answer.  

 

4) Rev. Jessie Jackson, one of the greatest living personalities, as far as we know invented “subcrime” for subprime. In a March 20 timely speech in Chicago (quoted in our .pdf, Section 4), where he accused the Govt. of moral hazard financing bankrupt banks, while ignoring foreclosures and people. As we have already discussed in this blog, in synchrony with the economic blogs community (namely: perplexity towards a NYT  op-ed by  Robert J. Shiller, on May 18), this is a delicate issue of policies; since a bailout of foreclosures (with the excuse of the poor rape victims) will always close the gap of Subcriminals. It’s the easy credit for sacred property TABOO that must be challenged, overcome, identified as a Middle Class narrative belonging to the past, while manipulation belongs to the present (see Joriot). But the US left is always in a mess, lost in between Blair-Clintonian Late  Reaganism, and a-scientific, ideological Populism. Even Obama – basically a postClintonian, on that line of evolution of neoDemocrats, but somehow divided, as it often happens to us, between his rational mind and heart. This is physiological in a country that, after Tocqueville (no democracy without religion), is so much ideological and radical, but has not declined a variety of complex ideologies (like Eurasia). They stand by the American Myth, Father of a constellation of Myths – e.g., housing, financed by the Fed. State via Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (Joriot)- a bit like Greece before the Ionians and the Athenians. They hardly get (perhaps The Nation?) to such a Myths deconstruction (Derrida), that would engender a Real Socialist left. This is a priority area of political work, in networks of international coop – helping US progressives to make a step further. This is what we mean by “Robin Hood policies”. More on this another time. 

 

The DIAGNOSIS, from p. 5 of  subcrimebiosocialscience1.pdf

 

1. the global economy is locked in a longrun demand deficit hysteresis (requiring a drastic redistribution), and liquidity trap (making monetary and credit policies totally ineffective)

2. fiscal and income policy implication: the world badly needs an epoch-making, giant income and wealth redistribution, from the élites to impoverished masses. A Keynes-Kalecki and Ricardo-Pasinetti models classic case, calling to rebalance 25 years of counter-distribution

 

3. in fact, the “1987-2007 Rentiers’ glorious years” increased:

– both the rate of Absolute and Relative Surplus Value extraction: in each OECD country, 9% GNP shifted from wages, to gross profits and self-employment incomes; – and of its appropriation by Rentiers – see Fig. 2 of the pdf: showing that the US finance margins jumped from 35% to 50% in the “20 Glorious” 

4. such a counter-distribution dropped the global economy into a deflationary régime

 

5. a drastic improvement of world welfare, an intrinsic ICTs potential, went bust by Lewis-effects (unlimited labour supply discouraging technical change, i.e. substituting Absolute for Relative Surplus Value)

 

6. a complication: political systems do not allow such a global Keynesian-Obama New Deal

7. morale: a political hysteresis (Blair-Clinton-socialdem. PostReaganism, a follow up of “doc” Reaganism) in leading OECD countries, is blocking the road out of the economic hysteresis.

Rullar di tamburi americani

Rescue Effort Overwhelms China 

[Go to article.]
Shai Oster
China quickly mobilized the largest relief operation in its modern history after the magnitude-7.9 earthquake, but, as a trek into one of the worst hit areas showed, even that effort was falling short for many victims of the vast devastation.

In a moment of catastrophe and suffering for the Chinese earthquake (40,000 dead counted as of today, plus 30,000 dispersed), the WSJ  looks forward, sees a reconstruction after the ruins. And, further on,  the same Armageddon as we do. But – once sharing this basic, commonly held scenario – such an authoritative and highly professional voice of the US right, decides for the obvious. The highly popular Early Strike meta-strategy is proposed in an op-ed by Mark Helprin.

Lemma: NATO MUST TAKE THE INITATIVE OF WW3 EARLY. CERTAINLY, BEFORE 2020.

FAQ 1:  Does this imply that capitalisms are leading NECESSARILY TO WW3?

FAQ 2: Which family of social systems might avoid imperialistic  WW3 and WW4, and how?

FAQ 3: Is it conceivable a peaceful transition from a US to a Chinese and\or an Indian Empire? Why not?

Don’t ask such question to the WSJ, feminism and socialism are not their main points. Today’s Opinion.

OPINION

The Challenge From China

By MARK HELPRIN

May 13, 2008; Page A17

Even as our hearts go out to the Chinese who have perished in the earthquake, we cannot lose sight of the fact that every day China is growing stronger. The rate and nature of its economic expansion, the character and patriotism of its youth, and its military and technical development present the United States with two essential challenges that we have failed to meet, even though they play to our traditional advantages.

The first of these challenges is economic, the second military. They are inextricably bound together, and if we do not attend to both we may eventually discover in a place above us a nation recently so impotent we cannot now convince ourselves to look at the blow it may strike. We may think we have troubles now, but imagine what they will be like were we to face an equal.

US export slow with such a low $! Come on, I can’t believe …

rge always no.1, NO DISCUSSION: another discovery by rge, the Cannibal, the eddy merckx of economic blogging. So, drawing on rge’s Setser, Naked Capitalism take the chance for a striptease of US export and trade balance: A BIG SURPRISE under the pants !!! What a surprise … US economy much  less … (ehm)  masculine than it was supposed. Delusion in the gay and nonlesbian women audience.

Naked Capitalism

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Setser: Real Export Growth Stalls

What would we do without Brad Setser to give us a hard, analytical look at trade and international funds flows? Setser tells us that the headline news on the trade deficit, namely, that it shrank in March, is misleading. When you dig deeper, and in particular pull out petroleum-related flows, it reveals that real export growth is stalling, which is not good at all, given the supposedly weak dollar.

You’d never detect that worrisome pattern from the mainstream press. It treated the trade release as entirely good news, as the WSJo illustrates:

    U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in March as imports of cars and crude oil dropped amid record-high oil prices and a weak economy.

    The March deficit was smaller than Wall Street expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had estimated a $61.50 billion shortfall.

    The decrease in the trade gap followed two straight months of widening deficits, and suggests that trade contributed more to first-quarter gross domestic product than initially estimated.

rge

And, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: here is Setser:

Be careful — real export growth looks to have slowed

 Brad Setser | May 9, 2008

Unless your family is in the wheat or beans business (wheat and soybeans exports have more than doubled when q1 08 is compared to q1 07; total food and feed exports are up 50% y/y), there actually wasn’t a lot to like in this month’s trade release

Tibet: Breaking News – GOOOD NEWS!

Heard now on the radio, a big success for: Olympics; peace; contractual, limited and peaceful self-determination. Also a tactical good point of the moderate Tibetans (even though got by using a violent revolt wild card), besides an intelligent move by Hu Jintao. HE IS READY TO DEAL WITH THE DALAI LAMA. The sincere part of Tibet solidarity fronts also won (not the monopolists media information bubble: now obliged to invent another story: any new bare first lady Carla Bruni? Pamela, no thanks: an old chicken).

BAD NEWS: Interpol informs Al Qaeda might attack the Olympics. In fact, 3 are the main pro-WW3 forces, and one is rooted in Middle East turmoils. This is the sad world without peace, we live in.

MORE: AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS UPDATED TODAY; THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND, a bibliography  in our workinprogress TIBET page (an Arcapedia item in Italian, but with always enlarged English sections):

https://enzofabioarcangeli.wordpress.com/arcapedia-scienze-regionali/

Prof. Montessoro has just given an important, timely and useful comment on Italian Radio3, local 1.45 pm news, www.gr3.rai.it. In synthesis:

(a) this is both a Chinese Government tactical shift, and a strategic one at the same time (you know, communism, power’s art and strategies require some Machiavelli-Hegel dialectics), that is:

(b) on the one hand. Hu Jintao opens to the Dalai Lama because of the international pressure: he doesn’t want to lose his face from here to the Olympics, nor ruin and waste  the big party, ads, propaganda, etc.

(c) on the other hand, there is substance as well. The Chinese govt. (as we had already concluded, beforehand, in the analysis of our Arcapedia page “Tibet”, accessible here from the right column) is perfectly aware that he has to change some detalils (NOT TOO MUCH) of the status of Tibet within PRC.

(d) dealing with the Dalai Lama has immense, unique and valuable advantages for Peking: every peace-lover suggested that since long! But there was a balance of power game behind. Time, maturation and more pressure was needed: finally the Olympics dynamics accelerated events and got it (Olympics propaganda aura –  Tibetan popular revolts in March – worldwide solidarity, although infiltrated by anti-China Hawks – boomerang into Olympic games –  today’s Beijing decision to start colloquia).

(e) Beijing knows it has to better CALIBRATE his Tibetan policy, just that and up to a given, prefixed  limit: more provincial autonomy; a larger personal role of the Dalai Lama. Nothing, no concession to  the Nationalist components of the Tibetan society.

(f) Beijing and the Dalai Lama have both a close, and increasing interest to close their 1959 gap: the 2008 Tibet base movement has marked a further step towards pure nationalism and separatism, that has taken more and more space in the last 20 years (according to prof. Montessoro).

(g) DALAI LAMA value added to enter a contractual game: the traditional Tibetan élite is close behind him, no problem. But things  have changed across decades: who’s the emerging local élite, how much do they, and how many do listen to him? For how long? DAKAI LAMA IS BUYING PRECIOUS TIME, by accepting to deal with Hu Jintao (also buying time, while this authoritative Dalai Lama is alive: LONGLIFE!). Nationalism and independentism is necessarily arising, it happened everywhere in close cases in the world, even after the most advanced and even excessive concessions (feeding the separationist process). There are hundreds nationalities unfitting Nation States geography all over the word, it’s a big mess: there is something wrong in the whole of it, the bloody Nationalism. One thing is the terroir, the roots: another an ideology of hate and separation, in a continuum of geography and humanity. Therefore: no blessing, no solidarity to Tibetan Nationalists. They’re intrinsically as  fascists as anyone else, from the Basque  country to everywhere.

(h) Take – as a benchmark –  Austrian speaking people in the  Bolzano\ Bozen province, Italy: they have every possible and imaginable privilege; they are amongst the richest in Europe, with one of the lowest unemployment rate in the world (1%; 2% in recession times !!!); and they’d much, very much poorer, did the province move to Austria’s domain (NEVER !). Decency and self-esteem limits of a nation state (Italy) have been humiliated and trespassed by far, in the postwar  settling De Gasperi-Gruber Italy-Austria agreements (deeply unfavourable and unjust for Italy: a major failure of the excellent De Gasperi). Well, many of them (I think the most irrational, stubborn and stupid ones – in any case the nationalist wing), still want to join Austria, and live in Italy at the same time. And we, the too much Christian, peaceful Italians, we don’t send them behind the Alps, into Austria A CALCI IN CULO (boots in the bum), AS THEY DESERVE!!!  I am not sure it’ll not end up this way, sooner or later: in nearby provinces (like the Dolomites) there is a sweeping revolt, for the unfair tourism competition coming from over-subsidised Bozen Italians, paid by all over Italy taxpayers, and still thinking – the Nazis –  they’re Austrians (90 years after 1918 war end. YA BASTA). You go to a hotel there, you pay just €20 or max 30  a night, in the high season, but  they receive the double as a subsidy (they cash a normal €60 to 100): how can one compete with them in unsubsidised Cortina d’Ampezzo, one valley far away?

(i) Lots of sympathy and understanding for Hu Jintao, in THIS RESPECT! The opposition and resistance to bare Nationalism.  First, the Chinese Empire de facto did not explode as the contemporary Roman one did, so it’s still alive. Second, on this tradition he’s not the devil. Just a tyran among many: including those fabricated by Western “democratic-at-home” monopolies,  secret services, their allied-satellite forces and mafias. At least, he’s autoctone, genuine, home made and, BASICALLY: stemming from CP stronger resistance to Jap Imperialists (the Nanking rape murderers), compared to the Kuomintang. And history never goes backward.

(j) Unless you stop it, with concessions and a fair compromise, Tibetan Nationalism would quickly escape any real control even by the Exile Govt., therefore  leading to a tit-for-tat of mass revolts and repressions, eventually: an unequal civil war and likely democide, in such a case (NB: according to our analysis and independent sources, a democide already happened; but a new one would be the end of it, last Tibetans escaping from Tibet: Who wants this? Perhaps some cynical Western Imperialist? Even a few suicidal Tibet martyr nationalists?).

FAQ. IN SUM, who wins, who loses this game round, with an announced Tibet Table?

See the answer, at the end of the initial English section of  Arcapedia’s TIBET,

THIS, AND MUCH MORE IN OUR TIBET PAGE: here on the right, static pages column.

goto subcrime social science

On Palms’ Sunday, the Fed said: back to the 1930s

More in our special report pdf (May 3 updated v.)subcrimesocialscience080503

Palms’ Sunday, we finally realised that a domino effect, potentially self-destroying for most banks and capitalisms was there, at hand and sight (had perhaps Keynes understood something even Marx had missed?). Well, but, if the ‘30s are back, the two greatest John (Steinbeck and Ford) are back as well: we’ll collect and tell the story of every single proletarian, of all the Joad and Ortiz families. Nikola Chesnais will help us to turn the films, since John Ford is his paradigm, and Ford filmed Grapes of Wrath immediately after the book (1939-40).This film was the most popular left-leaning, socialistic-themed film of pre-World War II Hollywood“. At Washington Post, BRIGIDA SCHULTE already started telling us about Gloria Ortiz and her husband: we love them now: they don’t American Dream any more; we dream to encourage and help them. The Joads, the Ortiz, and new gold rush prospectors. FT March 29, p.1: Soaring prices spark fresh rush to find Ca.’s forgotten gold.

subcrime social science is an art

subcrimesocialscience was a 20 pp. (now 30) w-in-p survey, adopting the de(e)pre(ce)ssion Political Economy paradigm (Ricardo- Marx, Keynes- Kalecki, Schumpeter- Minsky- Perez, Aglietta and Chesnais). It briefly reviews, in its early pages, what economic sciences know on ongoing:

KONDRATIEV LONG WAVE (197os +)

Minsky Magic Moments, since Summer 2007

Minsky Financial Meltdown, we are on the border of

2008+ deep&long recession, endowed with a depression potential

FAQ. Might Capitalisms succeed where Socialisms failed: to help us coping with them, undermining and overthrowing them? Then it deals with policies and recession chronicle highlights. Here is a summary on economic policies.

” De(e)pre(ce)ssion 7 capital virtues: remedies for the Minsky Meltdown.

1. Minsky won the bet versus Chicago. The latter did not survive to the great Milton Friedman for longer, and finally died at dawn, Friday March 14, 2008 (on Bear Stearns’ day: p.15 here).
2. States will massively intervene, after decades of anti-State mind washing: how effectively?
3. After March 14, oil into firing debates on credit&fiscal policies: moral hazard of rewarding – again – those fucking rentiers, vampires that already gained 6-0 the early sets of the subprime match.
4. Leaders’ war. March 29 FT (Not yet time for a bail-out of banks) versus March 22 The Economist (Wall street’s crisis): both are over-Bullish, but policies clash. FT delays a bail-out fiscal policy, conditional upon sacking the rentiers (“it should do so only over the dead bodies of shareholders and management” – falling in love with FT). The Eco. advocates hyper-fiscal policies, erecting floors “either in housing, or in asset-backed securities”. FT objects housing prices must stop to a floor before, otherwise you can’t price securities. At 19th C The Eco., they found a Hegelian synthesis: neo-Leviathans will buy the open and the foreclosed apt.s: almost everything. Socialist times.
5. All this policy makers (hyper-)activism is and will be part of the process (Roudini’s blog, Feb. 8), in a self-referential crisis system (Niklas Luhman), where no one is sitting outside the system. As in an ancient Myth, financial accelerators ate Bernanke himself: their father.
6. Minsky’s call for an institutions-specific and even a capitalisms-specific analysis (note 10) might be the compass exploiting the fixed point of an endogenous institutions axiom.
7. The latter fits with self-referential systems theory, and this couple is full of well known (in their proper cognitive, policy theoretical domains), important consequences.”

On Minsky’s suggestions,

see monetary policies in:

Wray 2007; Galbraith,

Giovannoni and Russo 2007.

Please note – from the 7 points above – that we converge much with Roubini, although we get there by different arguments and ways. Knowing already, by him, the most likely end of the story (script of Grapes of Wrath 2: by H. P. Minsky).