Fear and foreboding took hold on Wall Street yesterday, as the stock market again plunged and investors became convinced that the nation is on the verge of a deep and prolonged recession. The rout continued in Japan, where stocks plummeted in early…
Today’s Slate cartoon, by Mike Thompson, http://cartoonbox.slate.com/mikethompson/
The point on policies: great expectations on 2 world w\e meetings in Washington.
FORGET THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM’S PERFECT STORM: IT’S JUST DEAD, AND NO OXYGEN WILL MAKE IT RESURRECT.
RADICAL SOCIALIST INCOME REDISTRIBUTION MEASURES ARE NEEDED NOW, IN ORDER TO AVOID A 2010s DEPRESSION.
ONLY A STONG CLASS STRUGGLE CAN SUPPORT THIS ALTERNATIVE TO THE ENSLAVING OF STATES TO RENTIERS.
Moment of Truth Paul Krugman – ANCHE I PROFESSORI TALORA S’INCAZZANO.
Moment of Truth, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times:
Last month, when the U.S. Treasury Department allowed Lehman Brothers to fail, I wrote that Henry Paulson … was playing financial Russian roulette. Sure enough, there was a bullet in that chamber: Lehman’s failure caused the world financial crisis, already severe, to get much, much worse.
The consequences of Lehman’s fall were apparent within days, yet key policy players have largely wasted the past four weeks. Now they’ve reached a moment of truth: They’d better do something soon — in fact, they’d better announce a coordinated rescue plan this weekend — or the world economy may well experience its worst slump since the Great Depression. (..)
Why this weekend? Because there happen to be two big meetings taking place in Washington: a meeting of top financial officials from the major advanced nations on Friday, then the annual International Monetary Fund/World Bank meeting Saturday and Sunday. If these meetings end without at least an agreement in principle on a global rescue plan … a golden opportunity will have been missed, and the downward spiral could easily get even worse.
What should be done? The United States and Europe should just say “Yes, prime minister.” The British plan isn’t perfect, but there’s widespread agreement among economists that it offers by far the best available template for a broader rescue effort.
0K. Nonetheless, although Paul is a flagship Keynesian, he keeps just proposing here FINANCIAL socialism (part-time nationalisations, HOOD ROBIN), and not a Keynesian blend – ROBIN HOOD, namely restoring a balance in income redistribution, against the rentier class, therefore attacking the current Marx-Kalecki-Keynes-Minsky node: “How to avoid a severe recession to become a decade depression”.
Another Paul, Paul Thoma, not a revolutionary socialist indeed, already got it today. And he also quotes, in his precious blog, The Guardian’s Time to grasp the fiscal nettle, by Barry Eichengreen yesterday: A MILESTONE PAPER, moving faster than Paul k. along neo-keynesian lines (aggressive, internationally coordinate fiscal policies; we agree 100%, and just add the redistributional dimension with more stress and with an open connection to a class struggle revival, from Milan to Mumbai and Shangai, on technology appropriation, profits, rents and wages). Giacomo Vaciago, in today’s il Sole 24 ore edito, on the same line: the emergency now is growth, and consumer expenditure.
Don’t despair: Paul is slow in changing his mind but, when he does, he moves the public and intellectuals median opinion to the point.
It’s a diffusion of innovations geography game: Nouriel, Paul, then the critical mass.
Saturday’s newspapers: Slate
TODAY’S PAPERSWorst. Week. Ever.
By Jesse Stanchak
Posted Saturday, Oct. 11, 2008, at 6:03 AM ETThe Dow Jones Industrial Average had its most volatile day ever Friday, oscillating more than one thousand points before ending up 128 points down, capping the worst week in the Dow’s 112-year history. The index lost 18.2 percent of its value between the opening bell Monday and closing bell Friday. Amid the panic, some very somber discussions are being held and all the papers lead with some kind of reaction to the bad news.
The Washington Post leads with finance ministers from the U.S. and six other wealthy nations vowing to take “all necessary steps” to deal with the burgeoning financial crisis. The Los Angeles Times leads (at least online) with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson coming out of that meeting and saying the U.S. government would buy non-voting stakes in financial institutions, as part of an ongoing attempt to restore market liquidity. The New York Times leads with a double billing of the international cooperation announcement and word ofpossible merger talks between General Motors and Chrysler. The Wall Street Journal devotes the top half of its front page to summing up Friday’s manic market activity; it tops its world-wide newsbox with both presidential candidates issuing new economic proposals in light of the crisis.
il Sole 24 ore. Borsa: l’Europa chiude un’altra seduta da brivido. Milano -7,1%
Sui mercati prevale una situazione di estrema volatilità. Le Borse europee, appesantite dai cali registrati a Wall Street, chiudono in forte ribasso. Milano perde circa il 7 per cento. Francoforte è la peggiore e cede l’8,05 per cento. Le vendite hanno colpito l’intero listino. Attesa per misure straordinarie dal G-7 a Washington. …»
Friday, October 10, 3.30 pm GMT
11:32 a.m. EDT (3.32 pm GMT) 10/10/08 Major Stock Indexes (wsj
Last – Change – % Chg
DJIA (Dow Jones) 8171.39 -407.80 -4.75
Nasdaq 1577.94 -67.18 -4.08
S&P 500 861.01 -48.91 -5.38
DJ Wilshire 5000 8712.03 -475.91 -5.18
Russell 2000 479.83 -19.37 -3.88
DJ World exUS 145.66 -11.31 -7.21
Japan: Nikkei Average* 8276.43 -881.06 -9.62
DJ Stoxx 50* 2090.58 -201.19 -8.78
UK: FTSE 100* 3981.70 -332.10 -7.70
Brazil: Bovespa 34246.43 -2833.87 -7.64%
China: DJ Shanghai* 204.20 -9.95 -4.65%
Bombay Sensex* 10527.85 -800.51 -7.07%
FTSE/JSE All-Share* 20595.23 -657.06 -3.09%
* at close
CHART: S&P 500 the last 2 years: now (before closure) at 869, 1 year ago twice at 1550 (in July and October) – http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3050.html?symb=&sid=3377&page=us&symbChange=aaaaa~0&time=2yr&freq=1dy&DrawChart.x=63&DrawChart.y=2&startdate=&enddate=&type=64&compidx=aaaaa~0&comp=Enter+a+symbol&ma=1&maval=100&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=1024
This early morning in Asia
Asian stocks dive as panic erupts over financial crisis (from India Times)
10 Oct 2008, 0950 hrs IST,AGENCIES
Tokyo dived more than 11 percent as investors took fright at news that Yamato Life Insurance will file for bankruptcy protection, becoming the first Japanese insurer to go bust amid the global credit crisis.
The bloodbath quickly spread to other markets. Sydney plunged 6.5 percent, Singapore lost more than seven percent, Seoul was down 7.5 percent and Shanghai opened 3.8 percent lower. Hong Kong followed, opening down 7.7 percent.
“It’s beyond panic,” Oh Hyun-Seok at Samsung Securities told Dow Jones Newswires. “Concerns about the global economy are deepening further and there is no signs of easing in the global credit crunch.”
Shangai is down 60% frome year start. The Nikkei ends the day almost at -10% – in its biggest one-day drop since the 1987 crash – with a weekly fall of -24%. Nikkei limps to 24% weekly drop.
Fearing recession, markets end sharply lower
10 Oct 2008, 1632 hrs IST, www.economictimes.com
Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 10,536.69, down 791.67 points or 6.99 per cent. The index touched an intra-day low of 10239.76.
Retired Bill is poorer and poorer
Buffett pips Bill Gates to top new Forbes list: Report
10 Oct, 2008, 1602 hrs IST, REUTERS
The euro-american afternoon.
Now, at 3.00 pm GMT (Italian legal time 5.00): – 4% then – 5% NY, -6% Bovespa SP, – 8% Paris and London; Frankfurt closing worst, at – 8.7%.
Although Milan (-7.4% Mibtel at close) suspends all the “vendite allo scoperto”: UniCredit at -14% (falling towards €2, after a title suspension), Intesa SP recovering from the morning and “only” – 4.8% but at €2.9, i.e. under €3 per share, Mediaset suspended for excess obscillations. People laugh at today’s new Berlusconi appeal (during stock markets opening time !!! he’s just crazy and silly) to buy now undervalued shares, namely ENEL (- 7.5% today) and ENI (-6%) –listen to the audio file – and (yesterday): don’t sell Mediaset. Telecom Italia down at €0.75. Portfolio, fund managers must sell “good” shares, and therefore contribute to diffuse the fall to energy and manufacturing industries. Berlusconi from Naples: in Europe we will rewrite all rules in a new Bretton Woods, and we might suspend markets (than he denies having said the latter); “non siamo ad oggi in una recessione”.
He’s even more funny, stupid and unreliable than a prudent, and lately metamorphic President Bush.
BBC at 2:14 pm GMT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped below 8,000 but then recovered slightly to trade down 3% at 8,321 points.
President Bush has sought to reassure traders, saying the US government was acting to resolve the crisis and restore stability to the markets.
Wall Street has lost more than 20% of its value in the past ten trading days and is heading for one of its biggest weekly falls since the Dow was created 112 years ago. (..)
In Europe share prices falls have been much steeper. In London the FTSE 100 share index was down 6.9%, Paris was down 8.4%, and Frankfurt was down 8.9%.
Finance ministers from the G7 are to meet in Washington later.
As well as the G7 meeting, talks will be held at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington.
(…) The BBC’s business editor Robert Peston said markets were worried about Friday’s auction of insurance claims on the debts of the collapsed US investment bank, Lehman Brothers.
Wall Street was sharply lower after a dizzying open session that saw the Dow fall more than 600 points before recovering most of its losses. London’s FTSE 100 fell 9%. European indices also tumbled. Japanese shares touched 20-year lows, leading Asia-Pacific down as fears of a global recession mounted – 14:53
European stocks tumbled, with Germany losing 9.9% and the FTSE falling 9.3% to below 4000 amid heightened anxiety about the global economy and a distressed financial sector. Asian markets posted sharp losses, with the Nikkei closing down 9.6% and Sydney dropping 8.3%.
Zooming back to flat
Dow industrials below 8,000 for first time in five years before bounce
|With aggregate losses deep in the trillions, U.S. stocks suffer latest brutal open, picking up from Thursday’s bloodbath — and the waves of selling that ensued around the globe — but the comeback is stirring.|
|SECTOR IN FOCUS: FINANCE
Morgan sits out sector turnaround
Financials rise, pacing broad-market bounce off day’s low. But Morgan Stanley remains in the grip of a damaging sell-off.
PREVIOUS PARTS OF THIS BLOG POST FOLLOW, looking at yesterday and this morning again:
Friday October 10; 9.30 am GMT
Yesterday afternoon, ice shower on markets from “champagne socialist” Strauss Kahn’s (IMF) certification of our analysis: a global recession is on, and will hit hard in 2009 even Brazil, China, and then it will be a global stop. Wiping out all the nonsense that has been said against the mere economic reality and truth (the credit crunch monetary mechanisms of transmission into a severe real recession).
il cavalier Pinocchioni
But imbeciles are still in power: yesterday’s Guinness of PINOCCHIO-of-the-day goes to Cav. Berlusconi (waiting for today’s Bush speech), recommending Italian people to hold stocks, since in the long run they will re-evaluate. Not saying that in the short run, on average they will lose another 50%: stock capitalisations are now 1/3 down from 1 year ago’s maxima. In a few months the will be grosso modo another 50% down, to 1/3 of their maxima: only then a floor will be in sight. This is a rough estimation of fundamentals, in the middle of the hardest world recession of the last 80 years.
Friday morning Tokyo opened at -4.5%, Mumbai closed at – 7% (see above); in Europe, markets were opening from -6% to – 10%, then they were correcting upwards during the morning, but only slightly, with Frankfurt still at – 7.8% (now, at 9 am GMT) and Milan’s MIB – 6%. UniCredit is losing 12%, Intesa SP 10%, Italy’s Telecom 9% down to €0.75 (our target price: €0.25).
A review of some top oL pages today, in the European morning:
Equities plunged after a dramatic late sell-off in New York. London’s FTSE 100 opened 10% down before recovering somewhat to stand 5% lower. Japanese shares touched 20-year lows, leading Asia-Pacific down as fears deepened that the world economy was heading for recession. Overnight, Wall Street suffered its biggest fall since the 1987 crash – 09:37 (London time)
European Markets Open With A Crash
It was bad enough that the Nikkei traded down over 9% today and most of the rest of Asia fell 6% to 8%. But the opening of European markets is a dramatic vertical trajectory down: DJ Stoxx 50 down 8.3%, FTSE down over 10% in five minutes, now down a comparatively modest 9.23% Dax 30 down 9.8% CAC 40 down 9.8% The yen is at 98 to the dollar, Brent crude is at $79 a gallon, gold is $926 an ounce. …
Global stocks plummeted, with selling momentum accelerating after a Japanese insurance company was driven out of business. In Tokyo, the Nikkei fell 9.6 percent.
European stocks tumbled, tracking a global stock market rout, amid heightened anxiety about the global economy and a distressed financial sector. Asian markets posted sharp losses, with the Nikkei closing down 9.6% and Sydney dropping 8.3%.
The Dow industrials plunged 678.91 points, or 7.3%, to 8579.19, falling for the seventh straight day, or more than 20% over that stretch. An early rally morphed into a broad-based selloff that picked up speed near the end of trading.…
On Wall Street yesterday (Detroit’s capitalisation was sinking, GM in a moment was at -33%), also:
The US stock market suffered its largest loss since the crash of 1987 on Thursday (our bold) amid panic over General Motors, Morgan Stanley and several big insurance companies. The market collapse heightened speculation that the US would unveil a bank recapitalisation plan in the coming days. More…
This was – by contrast – the sunny picture yesterday morning in Europe, when markets were still quiet (after and before the storms), before IMF ice shower:
Thursday October 9, 12 am GMT
After 3 days underwater, starting from Tokyo and Hongkong, today stock exchanges are actually taking a breath and a holiday finally, – e.g. – UniCredit was even gaining +8% at mid-day, some fresh air.
But, read below in previous posts (and in AAA updates … page, our always longer and longer selection of economic facts) what we were reading just 1 week ago from Roubini. At the wsj live blogging, Oct. 2, at the FAQ “What if Paulson plan fails ?”, the answer was: nationalisation. Lead by the socialist premier Gordon Brown, even Amerika is fast moving into that dramatic direction of fully fledged bourgeois, financial socialism (reverse Robin Hood, people call it
stealing from poor taxpayers to guarantee and save the rich rentier).
A symptom is Technorati percolation temperature now: in the news the no.1 percolating news is this one:
Treasury officials say the just-passed $700 billion bailout bill gives them the authority to inject cash into banks that request it.…
The U.S. Treasury is considering ways to inject capital directly into banks, possibly by taking equity stakes.
U.S. officials are discussing temporarily backing all U.S. bank deposits if economic conditions continue to worsen, a move that would mark another unprecedented step.
The U.S. Treasury is considering ways to inject capital directly into banks, possibly by taking equity stakes.
The NYT is adding on Friday that
The United States and Britain appear to be converging on a similar blueprint for stemming the financial chaos sweeping the world, one day before a crucial meeting of leaders begins in Washington that the White House hopes will result in a more coordinated response.
The British and American plans, though far from identical, have two common elements according to officials: injection of government money into banks in return for ownership stakes and guarantees of repayment for various types of loans….
Of course, Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism is unhappy, arguing that banks shareholders took their risks and should face them. He concludes Friday morning, at 12.44 am:
Dear God, Rome is burning, and the Treasury Department is hung up on niceties like executive comp and the standing of existing shareholders. If the bank needs capital, current sharedholder WILL be diluted. The fact that this is coming up in discussions about how to keep the financial system from imploding is deeply troubling.
Among comments to Yves:
October 10, 2008 2:46 AM
The FDIC has coverage for only 0.8% of all deposits, now the gov’t will back debt that probably exceeds GDP. How is this going to soothe any sane investor?
And what happens to the CDSs written on this debt? Cancelled, default is triggered, or the protection sellers get a free ride from the gov’t?October 10, 2008 1:08 AMLJR said…I think a stake has been driven through the heart of the Republican party’s penchant for deregulation. There’s a bright side to everything that happens.
MORALE. AN AUTO-CRITIQUE: mea culpa …
YESTERDAY WE MADE a good point (nationalisations in the US) but at the same time such A BIIIG MISTAKE, when we predicted that this step would have perhaps occurred in January. It started to get critical mass the day after. It is difficult, BUT NECESSARY, t otake the exact pace of the HYPER-CRITICAL MASS global village ( markets, media, web 2.0 and word of mouth) where phenomena and meta-phenomena happen. That is: the crisis itself, and all the related class struggles, game powers, ideologies, narrations and self-fulfilling “news”. No immaterial economy, ON THE CONTRARY: a word of mouth becomes so quickly a Material Tsunami, with megatons of economic power shifting hands in a few hours.
At the moment, Paulson has more power than a G8 enlarged to China. FAQ 1: Will he keep it intact until January?
FAQ 2: Is Obama socialist? At the moment, only the far right believes it.
quoted by Technorati, argues that 12 years ago, the young lawyer was a member of the “New Party”:
What was the “New Party”? It was a far-left “workers’ party” fighting for:
full employmenta shorter work week
a guaranteed minimum income for all adults and a universal “social wage”
full public financing of elections with universal voter registration
“the democratization of banking and financial systems”, which included public control and regulation of banking
a more progressive tax system
reductions in military spending and an end to unilateral military interventions.