Aulas de “Economia industrial da crise” no IE\Unicamp

Aqui està algum material, que serà de tempo em tempo atualisado, sobre algumas meas aulas como Profesor Visitante  no IE (Instituto de Economia, dir. Marian Laplane) da Unicamp, Campinas SP.

En seguida, tudo este material ficarà fora da blog-timeline, na proxima pagina “fixa” intitulada UNICAMP, que continuarà sua vida propria como a pagina deste blog em lingua portuguesa (com erros, infelizmente – nenhum e’ perfeito). Ver “STATIC PAGES” aqui na coluna de direita, onde em dezembro vai aparecer o iten UNICAMP.

Materiais de leitura com bibliografias:

1) os seminarios e as aulas sao partes dum eschema mas amplo (nao inteiramente tratado, por falta de tempo) “A ECONOMIA INDUSTRIAL DA CRISE” – ilustrado nesse documento: EcoIndaCrise1011_current_v

2) as 3 aulas das terças ferias 10 – 17 – 24 novembro, pelo Seminario da Pos-Graduaçao (Mestrado, Doutorados) sao resumidas nesses documentos.

1o novembro: 1011010aula_I_Enzo. “Background” para entender melhor a atual crise da Irlanda, que està dinamizando a CRISE SOBERANA EUROPEIA:

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2010/nov/11/ireland-rise-crash/

Para quem sabe ler Italiano, ver tamben no assunto Irlandes esta discussao:

http://www.noisefromamerika.org/index.php/articles/Di_chi_%C3%A8_vittima_l’Irlanda%3F

17 novembro: 101117aula_II > “Commanding Heights”, a cit. entervista da Laura Tyson sobre a Politica Economica da epoca Clintoniana: int_lauratyson_CLINTONadm

24 novembro: a tecnologia e as prospectivas de longo prazo; novas bolhas, e uma nova onda lunga?

101124aula3seminario_v1

Interessante este twitter msg (em Italiano) que reuna 2 temas da nossa resenha dos novos paradigmas, o trans-humanismo e o quantum computing:

 

 

transumanisti network h+

Computer quantistici più vicini alla realtà grazie a nuove ricerche teoriche: I computer quantistici potrebbero … http://bit.ly/dGQ0TL
Falamos mesmo de spin:
cienciahoje Ciência Hoje
Adilson de Oliveira explica o que é o spin e mostra como ele revolucionará o processamento da informação: http://is.gd/hqoIy

Terà aviso nessa pagina – em breve (Dezembro) transferida na pagina statica UNICAMP – quando eu atualizo alguns documentos, com novos argomentos ou  bibliografias.

Para interagir, podem mandar comentos aquì por qualquer esclarecimento, pedido, pergunta o outro assunto. CIAO (tchao).

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G20: invented late 2008, dead 2 y. later?

Chronicles of a currency war

G20 was the hurried up way to fully incorporate BRICs into financial regulation and fiscal policy coordination and global decision making (as for monetary policies, they are are alreadly informally coordinated, inasmuch as possible and sound, by the CBs “club”). We discussed at length its first moves in this blog (see December 2008 posts).

At the first real crisis, 2 years after it doesn’t work AT ALL. To make things simple, Obama has no more a proper leadership (max, just agenda-setting powers), and Chindia is not yet nor soon the new Empire (and such an empire will substantially depend upon the path eventually leading to it).

The sharp division created on the one hand by “helicopter” Bernanke’s $0.6 trillions QE2, and on the other by yuan’s under-valuation by an est. 19% (source:  Peterson Inst. of Int.l Econ.), would have been quite easy and straightforward to deal with and solve, had a proper bargaining environment been there. It wasn’t.

The near future will tell us if it is just the G20 who’s dead, or the willingness to bargain, or both.

Inspired by the noisefromamerika blog style, and specifically by a quite similar table (same structure) at page B14 in  Folha de S.Paulo today, here is its last outcome.

EXPLAINING THE G20 FINAL DOC

IT SAYS\IT MEANS

1. exchange

To evolve towards exchange systems more market determined: by stressing the exchanges’ flex in order to reflect the underlying fundamentals, and avoiding competitive devaluations.

This point is FULLY anti-Chinese, because this is the country whose exchange control is more striking, and particularly US-annoying (the US leaders being so stupid, that they do not want to change their economic base, even after such a momentum crisis; if they had a proper Industrial Plan, they wouldn’t care much about the yuan). Message: China must undervalue, but under-valuation in general must not be used as a weapon, a pro-X (eXport) policy (a basic lesson from the 1930s katastrophe’).

2. Flow of capitals

The advanced economies, incl. those issuing reserve-currencies, will vigilate against disordered changes in the exchange rates. Their actions will help to prevent an excess volatility in the ST capital influx towards some emerging countries.

This is the compensating anti-US point. The yankees must stop to print money in order to buy credit. In Brazil as in China and elsewhere, Helicopter Bernanke’s $ create speculative K inflows, hence potentially Greenspan-style bubbles in commodities or housing. No, thanks. $ go home!

3. Disequilibria

The IMF might play a role here, by developing further the MAP (Mutual Assessment Process). The final target is ambitious: to match external stability together with fiscal, monetary, financial and exchange consistency.

Obama’s +\- 4% GNP  threshold (for S-I = X-M surpluses) has been thrown to the garbage. Now the IMF “arbiter” must deal with the hot potato, and is called to some persuasion hard job. But the Empire-like (centre-periphery)  divergence between over-saving BRICs and under-saving North Atlantic old powers is always there, and no one knows how to deal with it. Empires’ history tells how to do (read Marcello de Cecco, e.g.).

4. Safety nets

Make stronger the global financial safety nets, in such a way as to help the countries to cope with financial volatility.

If one country is financially sound (not Greece), but is hit by a financial exogenous choc, it will have title to receive credit and emergency help.

5. IMF reform

The leaders approve their Ministers’ decision to widen the participation of dynamic emerging countries to IMF shares.

BRICs and NICs will put more money in the IMF, hence get more power. The IMF’s architecture will (in part) close the gap with the economic geography of the real world.

6. Financial system reforms

The financial system regulation must become stronger, with tighter capital and liquidity requirements.

Here was the G20 good start, with the Commission coordinated by Draghi, which has been working meanwhile. Vikram Pandit, the Citi’s CEO sent a mafioso message to the G2o on the Financial Times: to impose higher capital and liquidity standards might have a significant negative impact upon banking systems, consumers and economies. Here the G20 returns compact once, in order to face the Financial Criminals that did  not respond anywhere of their sub-crimes. But the banks have already won the game. The proof is that Mr Pandit, after blackmailing all the past and future superpowers and their intelligences, is still alive.

7. Fiscal policies

Advanced countries must adopt such fiscal re-adjustment plans as to be “clear”, and “pro-growth”. Paying atn that they risk to deteriorate the economic recovery.

Leaders come over one year of impasse (US versus EU, lead by “Empire of austerity” Germany) between applied “keynesism” (keep State budget deficits high) and avoiding Sovereign debt collapses (reduce State deficits). The inner ambiguity of the issue is recognized.

8. Doha Round

A strong commitment to a success of the commercial liberalisation.

They keep saying it, but they don’t really mean it.

The reality of the 2007-2011+ crisis is of course against free trade (at least temporarily). Doha Round never took off since from its start in 2001. Now it’s unofficially dead.

At the opening of the G20, two closest allies such as the US and SK could not announce a bilateral free trade agreement. That was the sign that the atmosphere was really, really bad.

Caro Michele, anche quest’anno se ne andrà

Gmailo stamane, all’alba di ora ILLEGALE (l’imbecillissimo, al di sotto di ogni soglia minima Di Pietro, non coglie battute in materia; lui è un carabiniere da barzelletta … lui ci vive dentro, non ci può rider sopra dal di fuori):

Ieri Berlusca NON ha  licenziato Tremonti:
1) perché “divus julius no.2” c’ha Bossi dietro che fa scudo (“finché sono vivo non lo toccano” – letteralmente! CHE COMICA, se non fosse tragica)
2) perché, Libero stima oggi, la cosa costerebbe € 45 billions in spread.
A meno che  non tappi subito il buco con un min. più affidabile, e tra i papabili (è chiaro che pure io e te saremmo meglio) c’è solo Draghi – che sic stantibus sarebbe + coerente xò con 1 governo di centro salva-patria, benedetto da Fiat e Mediobanca, massoni e Vaticano. Cose che non stanno in terra, visto che il C-D non è affatto al collasso.
Ma intanto, con la politica di “0 tituli di spesa” di  divus Julius #2, ed il fancazzismo del governo, il ristagno affoga l’Italia – e.g., 1 indagine annuale Prometeia- Intesa SP sull’industria manifatturiera italiana uscita questa settimana dice che quest’anno (consuntivo 2008) cala  il fatturato del 21% nominale (-16% reale  – 5% prezzi alla fabbrica), nei prossimi 2 anni prevede un +1,6% reale annuo, ergo estrapolando ci vorrebbero un 11 anni a tornare a fare il fatturato 2007. Tra 2 anni avrebbero coperto il buco solo i beni di largo consumo, food ed un 3° settore che ora non ricordo, ma simile (beni necessari).
Mentre nessuno lavora (né nel governo prodi, né ora nel tremonti) sui fattori di competitività di lungo, invertire la stasi + che decennale della produttività SOLO in Italia (o quasi) in tutto l’Ocse; e prepararsi a rivedere  il bouquet delle specializzazioni nell’ int. trade, continuando la solita selezione Darwin-Schumpeteriana fisiologica – ma anche accelerandola e dando delle belle svolte (anche di concerto con la Germania che pare più solida che mai, creando reti di imprese trans-Alpi invece che distrettuali), profittando della crisi. Figurati! Con QUESTA  Università, tanto per  non far nomi!

ciao Michele!

Published in: on October 25, 2009 at 9:01 am  Leave a Comment  

1 programma di governo: x il centro-sinistra? Per chi ci sta

ANNUNCIO, LANCIO SU TWITTER (testo eguale a qui): http://is.gd/WPZx

Testo integrale del nostro inedito programma di politica economica in Italia, per un’uscita della crisi che consenta di inserirsi (con una finanza pubblica finalmente risanata) in un  nuovo modello di crescita mondiale sostenibile: http://grapesofwrath.ilcannocchiale.it/

Pubblichiamo stamane su http://grapesofwrath.ilcannocchiale.it/ la parte economica di un programma di governo, che di per sè è del tutto “centrista” anzi – ad evitare, a scanso  equinozi – del tutto ORTOGONALE al vecchio frame politico da 2° Millennio, che ancora domina la scena dei mercati politici europei (gli USA si sono invece lanciati a capofitto nel 3°, grazie alle procedure odd, strane ma efficaci delle loro Presidenziali).

BASI ANALITICHE: le ricerche svolte a Vicenza, con il corso di Economia Industriale Internazionale di questo secondo semestre e nel seminario congiunto col corso Analisi Fondamentale dei Mercati. Si veda, in v. provvisoria, il doc-sintesi del Seminario SubCrime: mappaseminario_090530

In breve, per un .. governo Arcangeli- Brunetta, o Arcangeli- Bersani, comunque AB:

1 mega stimolo fiscale del 4% del PIL in finanziaria 2010, ma da anticipare già ora: finanziato con un taglio drastico delle spese inutili o dannose (via le Province, difese dalla Lega);
2 ri-penalizzazione di elusione ed evasione: effetto annuncio che porterebbe ad un surplus di bilancio nel 2010 (non sprecare tale tesoretto come fecero i prodi Padoa Schioppa e Sartor);
3 abolire CIG: reddito sociale garantito di €500 e fermare l’immigrazione con lo sviluppo.
4 ripartono le politiche industriali, dell’innovazione; valorizzare le business ecologies ed i social media.
5 Complementari riforme concorrenziali e di struttura: governo stabile 5 anni senza togliere prerogative ad un Parlamento dimezzato e differenziato tra le 2 Camere (non “Senato delle Regioni”, già ipertrofiche e da ridimensionare, ma delle comunità locali, dei comprensori e distretti; cancellare per sempre le Province, sostituite dai comprensori gravitazionali dei servizi rari e località centrali:  ben più ampi, ed a geografia diversa dai micro-bacini di lavoro locali).

MORE: post di oggi su http://grapes-of-wrath.ilcannocchiale.it/

the rally is likely over, western actives will sink further&further

Corrupt “experts”, paid cash for that dirty job even in credit crunch times,  were disseminating during the April SR rally their usual bullshit, CRIMINAL disnformation they R paid 4. Hell is waiting for them: they’ll have all the time they want, to study Political Economy and to repent down there, at home … In Dante’s terms, they should & will suffer infinitely, the  souffrance they inflicted to the naive people believing their BULLSHIT optimism, spread on purpose in the middle of the worst ever crisis of Capitalism.

Please, remember the bloody Warren Buffet, Obama’s richest friend, who right  in the middle of the Fall of the Wall Street Temple, said last December “it was time 2 buy”. He bought, and lost all those $. We the poor, can’t afford such a luxury propaganda game.

Time 2 buy will come soon, most likely  in a couple of years time:

iff, provided the crisis will play thoroughly,   and bring to an end its own chirurgical work, no one else can do: to clean the ground, to make room (no room – in a filled up space of resources allocation) in order to allow for a new mechaism of growth to self-organize, emerge, and establish its coeherent, new economic geography & interregional DIVISION OF LABOUR. Marxian & Austrian, Hayekian & Schumpeterian sagesse, that neo-converted Keynesans (most of them actually never read  Keynes) and profiteering Obamist blatanty ignore.  

As we discuss in our teaching blog http://industrialeinternazionale.ilcannocchiale.it, things are not that simple & straightforward: there are  many mistakes in the Austrian  credo, although not so many  as their adversaries argue. First of all: why the hell in our MIXED  economies, that is a variety – from SF – LA to Beijing-Tokyo –  of combinations, mixes of  free markets (full of monopolies & market failures: what  Austrians oversee, for their ideological bias at odds with science) & Statism, should the most ineffcient fail, and the crisis VISIBLE  FOOT make a proper job of resources liberation from bad, worst uses? Monopolies, Detroit, Mr Profumo’s Unicredit: they R all TOO BIG TO FAIL. Who fails, is the foreclosure victim, not his killer.

In sum: while monetary policies are doing their job – they keep the crisis fever at the right temperature, avoiding a fall into stagdeflation  –  fiscal stimuli are most likely useless, 0 multiplier hence 0 impact (apart a Mob, Mafiosa misallocation of buying rights to friends, friends of friends etc. – e.g. Obama’s stimulus over-concentrating public exp. in Washington DC versus FDR’s regional balancing policy, iconised by the TVA, Tennesse Valley Authority).

 

TRUE DATA FROM CHINA, NO BULLSHIT:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/05/content_11315252.htm

says – from official sources, and itself an official, public-communist source – that China power use is currently dropping -4% (April 2009 n April 2008) at odds with evidently  FALSE official GDP figures from the Empre, saying that   China is growing 6% but will B up soon to 7%. Can you believe there was such a sudden jump of energy efficiency : +10??? 6 – (-4) = 10.

Published in: on May 5, 2009 at 8:38 am  Leave a Comment  
Tags: , , ,

Who’s afraid of Timothy Woolf

FACTS

WALL STREET: Sen.Dodd talks of Bank Nationalisation while markets are open: BoA and Citi (>50%  State owned) precipitate. Pension funds relocate from Banks to high tech, in search of dividends.

ITALY

TODAY, AS YOU KNOW:  – 5,8% MIB MILANO, worst in Europe.

STUCTURALLY WEAK, in perspective,  the 2 leading Italian banks (of course in a frame of subCrime and structural crash of the entire Globalisation architecture; but  NOT SO “innocent” Angels. Even “Last Angel” JP Morgan … see below).

INTREPPRETATIVE FRAMEWORK: TODAY’s PIAZZA AFFARI SOCIAL  PSYCHOLOGY

RE-RATING OR LEAP-FROGGING?

1) in all today’s markets, and very neatly in Milan, the so called RE-RATING PRINCIPLE HAS BEEN APPLIED. Although in a rather strange way in Milan, namely in the key last hour,  half-hour and  final (SELECTIVE) sales rush of the market — revealing a bit of wh’appens in the exchanges secret trades and UNOBSERVABLES (single transactions). UniCredit was leading the fall, OK? But, in the last  1/2 hour Intesa SP was loosing  all of a sudden another 6% point, Banco Popolare 4, UniCredit UNBIELIEVABLY stopped falling. On such  a proportion, this is  no RE-RATING at all (as il Sole 24  ore financial correspondent was saying at radio 24, on the contrary: but it is not so easy to give the whole picture in real time: at that moment, I also thought the same way). I’d  better call this: LEAP-FROGGING in a downward pent. NO OTHER ANSWER: someone, either 1 operator at a VLS, very large scale, or more likely 2-3-4 of them at average-to-large scales, were buying at closure prices (€ 0.89). We’ll comment this in a while: so interesting. I didn’t buy, although it’s MY bank.

COOL DON’T PANIC

2) Let us say: in the unprecedented last hour of Piazza Affari (A CONCENTRATED SHRINKING OF ALL  THE BLACK OCTOBER 2008, and just in Milan), some operators were in panic, some were applying RE-RATING (a sort of arbitrage, and hierarchy among leading firms in an industry). Just a few, perhaps a handful were manoeuvring against the main current, as only the most clever and resourceful fishes do – AND THIS HAS STOPPED the UniCredt decline in THAT key hour.

MIRACOLO A MILANO (de Sica).

Who bought UniCredit after 4.oo pm GMT (5 in Italy)? I won’t tell you,  except under torture.

INTERPRETATIONS

TOXIC PRODUCTS IN ITALY  DON’T SPEAK YANKEE OR OXBRIDGE: SPRECHEN ZE DEUTCH?

The Italian Duopoly  (1 bank in many respects),

at repair from any market contendibility (i.e. roughly translating our friend and fine wine connaisseur Baumol’s dis-equations: POTENTIAL competition, since Aristotle was never allowed to make it REAL), control the whole Classic Media, and penetrated deep into the Social Media blogo- and  ludo-spheres. Truth (they’ll never tell you) is

they are by far over-rated, still:

– I don’t analyse here Banco Popolare, except to say: I have a sincere esteem  of his CEO, Mr Fratta Pasini; in Verona there is an important sense of civicness, “coming out” with decision  in the last few weeks and even  more strong in today’s hectic day. For a disastrous process of hyper-concentration and that Surrealistic Theater called “globalisation” by its PRs, we have lost 1/2 banks; better than Naples that lost its only one (worst: the only left large job supplier in the city centre, an infinite  gift to Gomorra from politicians). The population of Verona is with the heart, sincerely on the side of “our” bank (no populism but local culture, the labour and work of a cooperative bank); in a very large majority of the spieaking public opinion, we believe 1) we have the right man, 2) managerial animal spirits are one of the rarest “commodities”; 3) and, to close such an improper sillogism,  we want him to stay there: exactly because a 2nd concentration would be lethal for the quality of  the civic tissue of the city, and CORRECTLY interpreted as a 2nd, historically even more intolerable EXPROPRIATION (David Harvey). Attention, because Verona  insurged with no hope against Napoleon: there are hidden anarchist resources in these quiet communities!! We will pay due scholarly attention to  Pop another time: this Social War will be so long; in the next few days it’ll be Fort Apache every day. Verona as a city,  i.e. a collective “in the good sense” (the one song by Simone Weil in the poem Venise  sauvée, for our sorella maggiore), firmly doesn’t want any Waterloo for Pop. By reasons of ethic-epistheme coherence, this doesn’t imply anyhow Pop is any “Angel” at all, even less that “our” Mr Fratta Pasini Angelically avoided all the traps on his path. On the contrary: i) if you compare him with Mr Profumo below, we love even more Mr Fratta Pasini for his humanity and finiteness: ii) as prof. Roubini’s intransigence taught us, a real picture of the situation is strictly necessary, in order to geo-position correctly  the Pop “barricades” against the Tsunami;  iii) not only some populist “stracciarsi le vesti“, or invoking  (again? nooo!) the closing of all financial markets everywhere, don’t deserve a reply here. Worst: for their stupidity,  they’re Trojan horses, weakening the city’s barricades or trincee, as I am arguing in the local press, with all the  passion and love for “Verona sauvée” which circulate in my blood (genius loci).

– in 1 year Intesa SP  fell from € only to € , while its future is bleakening at the speed of light, and they apparently don’t know well where to start from. Today, it was UniCredit leading the re-rating game, but the East European dependence (making UniCredit a lame duck) is NOT the major issue (by the way, this is an answer to Sebastiano Barison, radio 24, wandering: “Why all this crash, if the majority of their sales is in Italy”. Correct answer: “The majority of the duopolists problems ARE in Italy, actually”). In sum:

You better wait some massive devaluation and recapitalisation, before any BUY.

– On the other side of the SAME COIN, a UniCredit awfully managed by SuperEgo Alessandro Profumowe’ll never forget  the sense of self-sufficiency  stemming from his icy eyes, and his open despise of reality, top clients, whatsoever, worlds. A living Murphy law:  if there was a possible strategic mistake, he went straight into it, without arrière pensées; he’s an Aristotelian top executive: if something is possible, he’ll make it happen. But he’s weak in 9 other items of an interview: human relations; knowledge decision support; macroeconomic environments intuition; medium-long run view; reduction of useless extracosts and hierarchies; scenarios interpretation; selectivity; team work; vision. I would rate him: 1/10.

UniCredit  is surprisingly down only at €o.89 (from € ). Profumo’s another case in such a long gallery, we thought  up forever, exp. after the micro-economic roots here of the “Japanese desease”: pursuing  max growth while blatantly ignoring corporate finance sustainability constraints, and fucking stakeholders’ interests. There is even such a well known, VERY OLD BUT STILL TAUGHT textbook lecture on the “Profumos”: the Marris model. Every graduate student from a decent school, who was taught Industrial Organisation (and not just Games, the real thing as well; Maths and History, as Baumol says) knows  perfectly the problem and  might remember its multiple solutions (a 2 equations nonlinear system, under a linear sustainability constraint).

Add the macro- and geo-economic frame: any dilettante (IFF consulted) would have just stopped “a gamba tesa” Mr Profumo 10 years ago, since at that time most of the Western Economies’ Actives had been by far over-rated for a decade, and you could not reasonably take so many risks together in just one firm; plus the country-specific and the E. European regional ones. The average expected success  Prob. was very close to 0 on an array of scenarios. And the hyperconcentration of the governance, the very bad  use if the fusion (CredIt, CdR) just for Imperially spreading incompetent Roman Bureaucrats  in the Conquered Province (incl. my beautiful Verona) is no excuse: it is part of the problem itself; if the owners accepted it as a solution of their principal\agent bargaining with Mr Profumo, and did not  monitor how the cintarct was executed, they just got what they were looking for. A crazy mono-strategy  (Rome against the Unni at the border of Russian steppe) whose potential failure, unbearable risk and wrong timing was very easily detectable, at just one external independent check, since many years ago.

In sum:

No reason to buy unless strategically, as in the Qaddafi case. In fact, Qaddafi and another M.East SWF are subscribing UniCredit convertible bonds at €3 (versus today’s 0.89 mkt value)

Mr Draghi, much cooler and a plomb than Min. Tremonti is (1st class clever, but badly affected by emotions-driven Prime Minister), is just saying, and he’s correct: devaluate all your toxic rubbish (see below how much “toxic” is a daily changing, metamorphic notion), then recapitalize ASAP.  Please don’t fool yourself (as  yo do fool ourselves: see we’re fed up with Marxism plea) with your “stabiity”: the sooner, the better. Sure, implementing such a strategy meets hard times.

This is why the major National (from December, no more global: see Brad Stetller on the US capital flows) Capitalisms recur to the 4th-5th best, or last solution of Nationalisations. But Italy has its own path-dependence: after Enrico Mattei, Craxi and De Michelis. The beloved Beniamino Andretta (as you already know in Italy, the political “father”  and  mentor of Mr Prodi) fought very hard in the 1980s coalition governments in order to save the public debt from the catastrophe (I remember Gianni De Michelis’ versions of such a War on Budget). Beniamino had all the knowledge and will to fight and  he did it, he gave hard times to the opposite political line (as from my personal, oral evidence), but no real power.

This is history by now, it is written in many books: Craxi could hamper Mr de Mita’s  impressive and farsighted “Revolution” of the DC, aming to move it from a European to an American political science and tradition paradigm of great coalition Party. He was repaid by the traditional DC caucuses (he had saved from Nichilism: the usual grey men like Andreotti, Forlani etc.) with an infinite State budget ceiling (the one Super Ego Profumo was convinced to have, but he never had, as any psychiatrist or cognitive psy woud have told him  before the end of the  1st meeting). The change occasion was postponed to “Mani Pulite” that generated Berlusconi’s business diversification (a much more cautious application of the Marris Model’s normative implications on such strategies; a friend of mine, a top executive of the privatised Dutch Post, told me at the epoch of the “diversification” that he could no more consider Fininvest in the set of potential allies, since the political risk was unmeasurable; in Eindhoven they teach Economics comme il faut).

In sum: Italy will not have, for some and perhaps many generations, the means to nationalize anything,  AND VERY LITTLE ROOM for any other counter-cyclical, industrial or social  policy. The chance stands for “MANY” above since:

a) the Late-comer First Industrialisation happended in Italy, under the  hyper-corrupted Giolitti Period (Early 20th C.), with a German financial system (the Mixed Banks going  bankrupt and natonalised in the early 1930s; CredIt was privatised  not so much before concentrating into UniCredit) and under a German I-O umbrella: these “filière” systemic links always grew upon time (in parallel with not so different political regimes, mutatis mutandis). Germany, our Elder Brother with some paternal rights, was not paying attention to the younger brother in the 1980s, but from now on will never allow for easing his\our public financial constraint. Unless  we  move to Africa.

b) The Italian political system did finally diverge from the 65-years  Nippon stagnation path. But not so much, e.g. in intergenerational policy terms. Unless the PD (dead today, but  this is good news for  potential change) challenges PDL’s  monopoly-and-monopsony, where will change come from? The State debt will keep forever around 100% of a very slow growth, often zero-growth GNP. In a sort of coupled hysteresis.

NOW: A PROVISIONAL, REAL TIME COMMENT TO THE POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF A BANK STOCK  CRASH TODAY, Feb.20. Not just banks: there are a few REASONS WHY WALL STREET’S DJIA MIGHT FALL FROM 7200 TO ABOUT 6000, IN LESS THAN ONE MONTH.

THIS TIME (2008 IS OVER), THERE IS NO SHORTSELLING, JUST LONGSELLING:

1. PENSION FUNDS MOVE WHERE DIVIDENDS ARE HIGHER: WHAT ELSE?THIS EXPLAIN THE DIVERGENCE TIDAY BETWEEN DJIA AND NASDAQ. In the sublime as always, but today really ON THE NEWS Sebastiano Barison’s broadcast (to which I owe 2/3 of this post’s concepts, under my rewriting and idiosyncrasies of course), we coukd listen to a top US exoerte, Mary NN, saying; No way for dividends from US banks. She said “I’d really like JP Morgan [!] to pay them, but they are in the same situation”. Some room only , exceot the zero-option, for a further reduction of already low dividends (Nietzsche and Severino are right; God is dead, and with Him all the Angels = there is no ethernal structure left on this earth. JP Morgan was the last one, still an Angel under the Fed’s protective Holy Spirit,  in mid-March last year …).

2. RE-RATING (DAILY RIGIDITY OF THE SHARE RATIOS ACROSS LEADERS OF THE SAME INDUSTRY);

3. CUMULATIVE FEEDBACKS: NOW, EXPECTED AND ANTICIPATED FROM MEAN TO WALL STREETS;

4. INCREASING UNCERTAINTY UPON KEY PARAMETERS; namely, referring to the various Timothies, if they have an idea (perhaps not): which governance and business models  in the State-owned majority of the much  less global Credit Industry? Sociology taught us: it’ll be a big fight. Yes, but: A) a fight for Governance Rules under which Meta-Rules of the game? B) How  can we repeat  the Lithany  that the late Schumoeter was so wrong, totally wrong? C) The anti – “Capitalism, Socialsm and Denicracy” VUKGTA, cane from vested inteersts: the Workers’ Movement bureaucracies had to dissen’minate the ideiigy of Biig Socialism as a volunatry conquest etc, etc, Bukkshut.

5. EUROPE REGIONAL FACTOR – As Prof. Nouriel Roubini is saying, there is an emerging Regional Factor – the comparative delay in  making effective the anti-Meltdown injections. An antidote for Italy is today’s Bruxelles approval of the “Tremonti Bonds”.

6. NATIONAL NO-DECOUPLING or no-Nation decoupling (particularly in Credit: Brazilian Mean Streets have exhibited heroic decoupling forces in 2008, as  in a Myth, an Amazonica-Nordestina conta of strange, UNIQUE animals). ITALIAN BANKS DIDN’T “TALK ENGLISH” YES. BUT THEY DEUTSCH SPRACHE, and therefore they are full of original (doc) Toxic products (not just the unsellable Italease, a dead walking emanation of Banco Popolare). The counter-information industry (= all the Italian media, except only the one directly owned by the ensemble of all the non-credit Capital: il Sole 24 ore, the Confindustria newspaper – just with forgivable and BONA FIDE mistakes) told us for 18 months that the Italian credit  industry was living in  another planet. We could stand the Tsunamy by .. lending each other within borders, as Barison was mocking today, during the mini-Tsunami. It was  just to suck you your left savings.

7. THE TOXIC DERIVATIVES – Wh’happens here is that there are by now A FEW  GENERATIONS OF TOXIC artificial Beings, like in any Pandemia. After the “doc” subCrime 1st G, they are self-reproducing  in Labs (the Banks’ canteens, in the ususal metaphor about the canteen as a compensation room in between Surface Finance and –  legalised by Clintonians – underground Shadow Finance).

FOR OUR BACKGROUND, FRAME SCENARIOS: GO TO OUR RED!0 bulletin. AS for all the DIJA, to put it simply:

A) market operators are adjusting downward their expectations about the Autumn real economy effects of  the fastly built 4-plans (much more than $3 tr., perhaps 4 tr.?) architecture (Detroit, Paulsson no.3, stimulus and subCrime): Obama was effective, and  paid a minor price (namely a 40 mn cut in education) for getting the 3  GOP senators to vote the stimulus. But financial accelerators and all the rest of the REAL-MONETARY-REAL- etc. TRANMISSIIN SYSTEMS (not nec.  classic ones, with genuine, inherent unpredictability) are at work since midAugust 2007.

Hard to stop a snowball when it is an avalanche.

Then there is the issue whether  all this architecture is adequate. And: what is its paradigm – pay attention to Obama, he pays service t American Idls, but with his friend Cass :

Finally, THE issue – why FDR is far from a model:  either in his times (Amity Shlaes) or in our so different times (my deep convinction, on left libertarian philosophical grounds), or in both of them (my chance to ally with Shlaes); or none (an optimistic, backward-looking and Classic US Liberal thesis). NOTABENE  for sensitive souls – “backward-looking” is NO insult, since we know by now that Progress doesn’t “exist”, it’s just a Narration as another one (someone has to dare to tell it to the US Progressives, before they become the Last Mohicans). This is a straight Popperian issue  about whether, how fast and  how far contemporary cultures are a’changing, within the same regional Civilisation. The most respectable scholars told us they changed a lot, and that if there was a Promise Modernity maintained, it was the  effective mega-trend of Individualism. So, how can you come back with “Fordist” solutions or frames, NOW? I refer here also to Carlota Perez 2002, another way to say:  look forward.

B) experts have, on average: let us say, a bit equivocally, a “median expert” (of the few surviving ones, dynosaurs after the punctuated SubCrime equilibrium) has, for professional habit, talent and  intelligence,   much more deep-and-radical doubts than a median GOP Senator or a Wal Street guy. “We” believe (particularly Michele and I) that all such an Ambaradan might  do some  sound social justice if well managed, and eventually alleviate the short term, but (there is here a Gravity Law I’ll explain another day), ONLY TO MAKE THE MT EVEN WORST than “neutrally”. It has to do with 20 years of OverRated Actives in Western Capitalisms, ONLY sustained,  in increasing disequilibrium paths, by (not artificial, as Paul Krugman once dared to say: he was ALMOST right) Planned Hyper-Growth in East Asia Socialist countries (Jap, Kor, 4 Tigers, Chindia). This is rooted in completely, unprecedently  unsustainabe, by all means and criteria, SOURCE-OF-ALL DISEQUILIBRIA in the 2 PRIMARY MARKETS: LABOUR FORCE, AND  SERVICES drawn from irreproducible NATURAL objects (the Kalecki, and the Georgescu-Roegen contradictions). The gone-crazy Minsky cycle is a MASSIVE SIGNALLING about those 2 contradictions,  that for decades no one wanted, no one was keen to listen to, in a Surrealisitic pièce. But this time … surprise! Godot has arrived. When no one was still waiting.

Here comes the ETHICAL AND POLITICAL RESPONSIBILITY OF TODAY’S INTELLECTUAL: just too heavy! Unbearable! Let us not leave the whole of it to Nouriel Roubini as a Dom Quixote. Or the one Hero that had to sustain the Globe on his shoulders. Prof. Atlas Roubini, a good fella of Bocconi.

Obama New Deal, phase 1

Feb. 17 update – The final stimulus bill allocates $ 790.6 bn:  the CBO estimates tax cuts will amount to $ 288.5 bn and public expenditures about $ 500 bn (wsj) for a total est. cost of $ 787 bn. Today the President signed the bill and wrote us

enzo fabio —

Today, I signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law.
This is a historic step — the first of many as we work together to climb out of this crisis — and I want to thank you for your resolve and your support. (…)
I’ve assigned a team of managers to oversee the implementation of the recovery act. We are committed to making sure no dollar is wasted. But accountability begins with you.
That’s why my administration has created Recovery.gov, a new website where citizens can track every dollar spent and every job created. We’ll invite you and your neighbors to weigh in with comments and questions.
Our progress will also be measured by the tens of thousands of personal stories submitted by people who are struggling to make ends meet. If you haven’t already, you can read stories from families all across the country:

http://my.barackobama.com/yourstories

Your stories are the heart of this recovery plan, and that’s what I’ll focus on every day as President. With your continued support, we’ll emerge a stronger and more prosperous nation.

Thank you,
President Barack Obama

On the eve of the 200-Charles Darwin Day, the US House and the Senate have finally agreed on the mega-stimulus package, which President Obama might already sign next Monday,  February the 15th, i.e. 25 days after entering the White House (1/4 of the early 100 days, when the Beauty versus the Beast – Apocalypse Now – fight will B decided upon in the short term).

Mainstream economists, with whom this time we are tempted to almost agree once (but we have other priorities, since it is not OUR problem to save Capitalisms, but their victims), converge with the great, sublime Paul Samuelson (self-defining himself a Centre-Left, moderate Keynesian), by saying that some moderation and “watering down” (in the Congress revision) of Adm. Obama’s proposals is a first best, since  -e.g. – a demand – only perspective  is balanced with less unilateral supply-side  considerations as well (on this, our friend Michele Boldrin is writing quite important and interesting, fresh things on NfA – Noise from America blog, since early this year; we will discuss them, here and on NfA at length, soon).

Let us say that this is the state-of-the-art in academic Political Economy, and it is symbiotic with what happened in these hard Congressional fights about the final compromise, during the last weeks. One day, just symbolically Sen. Mc Cain presented a  motion to cut the stimulus to half. It comes out with a great momentum, a variety of tools and targets (see the Summary below).

A HISTORIC BILL, starting the Obama New Deal long series, in the next few years.

Sources:

http://www.slate.com/id/2211145?wpisrc=newsletter

Congress Makes a Deal

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123436825805373367.html?mod=todays_us_page_one

Congress Strikes $789 Billion Stimulus Deal

Historic Bill Would Spur Road Building, Give Businesses Tax Breaks, Expand Broadband Access; Final Passage Expected Soon

wsj summary table:

Focal Points of Stimulus Package

Key goals and what indicators to use to gauge success.

Business confidence
Steps: Tax breaks for businesses, appropriations.
Measurement of success: Stock market results and management surveys.

Low income/unemployment aid
Steps: Benefit checks, foodstamp increases, health insurance assistance, Medicaid.
Measurement: Benefit rates

Consumer spending
Steps: Tax breaks to workers.
Measurement: Retail spending, consumer-confidence surveys.

Job creation
Steps: Infrastructure spending, aid to states.
Measurement: Unemployment.

Economic Growth
Steps: Spending, tax breaks.
Measurement: GDP.

Please also note that:

The stimulus accord is a major win for the high-tech industry, which will receive billions of dollars in subsidies to expand broadband access to rural and other underserved areas and a huge infusion of funds to computerize health-care records.

The latter is a very important point, since it marks much more, than just Silicon Valley getting repaid for the EARLY support to “Sen. Nobody” (see on this Giuliano da Empoli 2008, already a classic and comprehensive book on Obama, in Italian; and our various, often updated  static pages on Obamology in http://arcapedia.wordpress.com/).

On the other hand, it is a strong counter-tendency, a counter-factual to the MARKET SELECTION PARADIGM – e.g., theorised in Italy by the no.1 telecom expert, prof. Enzo Pontarollo.  He argues that it is not so bad that the Schumpeterian effect (sometimes called “The Invisible Foot”) and the credit crunch crisis SELECT among very expensive digital highway plans, and allocate credit only to the more rentable ones, where effective demand will repay faster, at least a part of the infrastructure investment.

This is such a complex, multi-dimensional issue. Let us just say  this, as a complement and further qualification to the important, and  theoretically well-rooted Prof. Pontarollo’s argument.

Japan (as far as I know,  the main great and still powerful State doing this) usually doesn’t bother much about “the digital market” plans selection – perhaps also because Japan’s regional economies have been levelled-up during the last half century, and suffer much more from congestion than regional, or rural\urban imbalances. They just shape and anticipate effective market demand years, or even a decade before, laying down  futuristic cooperative-public digital highways (namely in the New Generation Networks, lately).

But if the Nippon State is  now on the defensive, such programs will be delayed for many years, and this anticipatory effect will be lost. In a strong “neo- Keynesian & neo- Schumpeterian” mixed, eclectic and PRAGMATIST (“Nudge“) approach, the Obama’s New Deal starts now doing what Japan has problems to keep up to. This is another Invisible Foot effect: not across regions but across Nations: the US just elected Obama, while the Nippon political system is in search of a “2nd Republic” trajectory since 20 years ago, with no viable, longterm solution yet.

They desperately need either a Berlusconisan, or an Obamasan.

This stimulus Bull hitech component, has little to do with FDR, and we are happy about that: since you know (or at least, regular blog readers do) that we fully agree from the left with the “right” critique to FDR  –  stemming from the careful Amity Shlaes historic reconstruction of what really happened during THAT New Deal 8o years ago (on this precise point, we take a small bit of distance, a degree of freedom  from Obama’s public image and self-representation). In any case, ce n’est qu’un debut.

LAVORARE MENO, LAVORARE TUTTI

 

sacconi-maurizio

Maurizio già in posa papale.

Crozza:  sei omonimo, studia la sua gestualità

ONDA MERKEL (LAVORARE MENO, LAVORARE TUTTI) IN ITALIA: ACCORDO UNANIME. IN ITALIA PARE SI FARA’ CON ACCORDI AZIENDALI, ma con le risorse pubbliche della Cassa CIG  (anche la Merkel  “paga” lei il 5° giorno, sempre in ipotesi). 

Cosi si potrebbe contenere il milione di posti a rischio nell’industria (non si sa quanti nei servizi: 2  MILIONI? farebbe -1/7 dell’occupazione, quindi una settimana corta GENERALIZZATA  potrebbe riassorbire il calo di domanda di F-L), se  e solo se il governo sarà messo in corner, e costretto a fare A GENNAIO almeno un primo (di una lunga serie) STIMOLO FISCALE DI EMERGENZA (i soldi si trovano anche senza alzare il deficit: basta non fare come Tremonti in Finanziaria, che ha tagliato tutte le spese del 10%, senza dar caccia ne’ ad evasori  – OGGI  AD UN MAX STORICO – ne’ a sprechi). 

Noi pensiamo che con il cinico e digiuno di economia Tremonti al Tesoro, l’Italia sia fottuta: LA CRISI SARA’ TERRIBILE, UNA MACELLERIA SOCIALE, E DEGENERERA’ NEL SANGUE. L’abbiamo argomentato a josa. Ma i giochi sono aperti.

Con la  BOLLA SPECULATIVA “Merkel” scoppiata da 2 gg., e’ la prima volta che in Italia si prendono sul serio le politiche keynesiane, senza le quali l’Italia s’africanizza nella stag-deflazione.

Qualificano la loro adesione alla linea Merkel, lanciata in Italia da Sacconi ed il segr. CISL  Bonanni (Maurizio sorpassa con questa mossa rapida ed intelligente Brunetta, nei futures su chi sarà il prossimo Premier, rovinando all’improvviso mesi di paziente e duro lavoro di Renato):

– Epifani segr.  CGIL:

—- purche’  sia in un quadro di garanzie, che includa i precari. NB: i giovani precari sono 3 milioni in Italia, ossi ail 15% della forza lavoro, Da dati ISTAT eisulta che mezzo milione si siano precarizzati, sparendo del L regolare.

—- nessuna furbizia: non sia un alibi per non sostenere i consumi,

-Bombassei vice-P CONFINDUSTRIA:

—- dev’essere temporanea e  non può essere estesa a tutti (ndr: ma allora non funziona)

—-  accompagnata da altre misure (ossia la stessa condizione keynesiana di Epifani;  poi, come evidenziato dal nostro liveblogging di ieri, una loro richiesta specifica e’ la detassazione degli utili reinvestiti).

Con queste  importanti qualificazioni, tutto l’arco politico e sociale e’ d’accordo, OCCORRE PASSARE AI  FATTI. La Repubblica:  in un’azienda di Franciacorta, si fanno già 19 ore all’80% del salario.

Quanto alla corsa alla sua successione aperta ufficialmente ieri dal Cavaliere Minimo (trattato a pesci in faccia sul Presidenzialismo da TUTTI: OGGI E’ IL GIORNO DELLE UNANIMITA’ – pare la Svizzera), si può notare che se la giocano la pattuglia dei 3 ministri socialisti: il Cav. ha però parlato di giovani ministri escludendo Tremonti che gli fa ombra, ma farà presto una brutta fine – travolto dallo Tsunami Stag-deflazione. Restano i miei amici Maurizio e Renato, cresciuti nel PSI veneziano-trevigiano di Gianni De Michelis, ai miei tempi.

La Stampa

Settimana corta, l’apertura della Cgil

Epifani favorevole: «Ma no alle furbizie» Sacconi: distribuire su più persone il minore carico di lavoro

ROMA

Lavorare meno, lavorare tutti: la proposta della settimana corta e dei contratti di solidarietà lanciata dal ministro del Welfare incontra il favore di sindacati e imprese. Seppur con qualche distinguo e precisazione sulle modalità di applicazione degli strumenti di solidarietà indicati da Maurizio Sacconi, le parti si dichiarano disponibili a un confronto con il Governo su tutte le forme di tutela dell’occupazione in questa fase di crisi economica.

Il piano prevede la possibilità di andare in cassa integrazione per una parte della settimana e lavorare per la parte restante, secondo un principio di rotazione della Cig che consente di spalmare un minor carico di lavoro su più persone, a differenza di quella a zero ore e di quella ordinaria. Dal leader della Cgil, Guglielmo Epifani, arriva un sì a patto che settimana corta e contratti di solidarietà «siano inseriti in un quadro di tutele che evitino il distacco dei lavoratori dai posti di lavoro, non escludano i lavoratori precari e non costituiscano una furbizia per evitare al soggetto pubblico di investire tutte le risorse necessarie».

uno sciopero contro lo sciopero della Ragione

oggi si sciopera e si va in piazza con CGIL e CUB:

per salvare l’Italia, per i nostri figli e nipoti

1229083417996_00deb6f0

EPIFANI: “IL CONTRIBUTO AGGUNTIVO DEL GOVERNO E’ STATO PARI A ZERO”

1 SETTTIMANA PRIMA DELLO SCIOPERO, CALPESTATI I DIRITTI COSTITUZIONALI ALLA ALENIA DI NOLA –  l’azienda fascista  non fa entrare il sindacalista che doveva parlare all’assemblea; una inammissibile violazione dei diritti universali.

An English speaking post in socialistbiopedia, on today’s strike:

Italy in general strike against M Tremonti’s kafkian procyclical plan

Nostra esclusiva (certo non la troverete su nessun altro media o social media): i vigili colgono sul fatto alcuni dipendenti Fininvest che gettavano secchiate d’acqua in Tevere a Ponte Milvio, per togliere la prima pagina alla CGIL. Allo stesso scopo, uno di loro si imprigiona ai lucchetti di Mocci, pronto anche ad immolarsi per il suo datore di lavoro, all’arrivo dell’onda delle 3 am di sabato. Il Papa esprime viva preoccupazione per il generalizzarsi del fondamentalismo suicida persino a 2 passi dalla Santa Sede.

ahogigggiellecubbbe

BREAKING NEWS

COMUNICATO CGIL

Sciopero generale

Cgil, un milione e mezzo in piazza

Duecentomila solo a Bologna. Panini: “Risultato di grande rilievo”

Un milione e mezzo di persone. In tanti sono scesi in piazza oggi (12 dicembre) per lo sciopero generale della Cgil. Una giornata di mobilitazione per chiedere ‘Più lavoro, più salario, più pensioni, più diritti’ e per contrastare le scelte inadeguate messe in campo dal governo per affrontare la crisi economica. Il risultato, comunica l’ufficio stampa di Corso Italia, è stato raggiunto sommando il dato di partecipazione di tutte le 108 piazze del paese in cui si sono svolte le manifestazioni.

L’epicentro della protesta è stato Bologna dove, all’imponente manifestazione regionale, ad ascoltare il comizio del segretario generale della Cgil, Guglielmo Epifani, in Piazza Maggiore erano in 200 mila, mentre a Milano con la segretaria confederale Morena Piccinini erano in 80 mila. A Venezia, la segretaria confederale della Cgil, Susanna Camusso, ha parlato davanti a 50 mila persone

foto Eikon. La Repubblica, ed. Bologna

6gelmini-bruneta-mascareta

Ci informa Fiorenzo Fasoli. A MESTRE (manif. regionale) sotto una pioggia impietosa, ininterrotta  (governo ladro per davvero) FORSE 50.ooo. I 2 cortei sono cosi nutriti che non riescono   procedere ed alla fine devono sciogliersi per andare al raduno. Piazza Ferretto  piena piena, chi ne conosce la capienza può valutare. Sfila, per lealtà organizzativa,  solo la base CGIL e CUB, ma in alcuni settori scioperano molti altri. La Camusso (possibile erede di Epifani alla guida nazionale) nel suo discorso attacca duramente il governo MA NON Confindustria (ciò potrebbe confermare l’ipotesi che sviluppiamo in questo post). Ovviamente, pieno spirito unitario tra sindacati (frattura sanabile?).

1) IL PAKI HA FINALMENTE, dopo l’ultimo viaggio di Gondoleeza ed  il blitz -arresto del Chief Commander  militare,  ARRESTATO la notte del 10 dicembre anche SAEED, IL  FONDATORE E PADRE-PADRONE  della banda LeT, la creatura anti-indiana dell’ISI (s. segreti paki) che ha pianificato e compiuto l’assalto a Mumbai (noi  l’abbiamo detto  ad assalto ancora in corso, CON NOMI, COGNOMI E SAPEVAMO PURE GLI INDIRIZZI, ma a molti fa comodo tergiversare).

ft (click Saeed’s picture for the link) concludes:

Some diplomats judge Pakistan to have badly mishandled its response. Islamabad first denied that Pakistanis were involved in the Mumbai attacks and then tried to avoid responsibility by blaming non-state actors. One diplomat said tensions would escalate rapidly if Pakistan only made “revolving door arrests”, whereby terror suspects were briefly and lightly held.

COMMENTO. E’  un timido passo avanti che al momento riduce la Prob di un conflitto nucleare India-Paki (come scommettitori su intrade.com proponiamo questo future), anche se la situazione paki-afghana resta del tutto fuori controllo: come spiega  il corrispondente atimes.com Saleem  Shahzad (un tipo leggendario alla Sheherazad, che va per le montagne ad intervistare e … FOTOGRAFARE capi talebani), e’ nata per fusione calda una  nuova generazione di New Talebans. In breve: da quando tutti i guerriglieri infiltrati dall’ISI  nel Kashmir indiano hanno ricevuto uno stop, tornate a casa (per le pressioni US sul gen. Musharraf),  questi si sono ricongunti ai Qaedisti nel NW “tribale”, cosi l’ISI ha ceduto ad al Qaeda l’egemonia dei movimenti a suo tempo da lei creati, sia gli Old Talebans che i Jihadisti infiltrati in Kashmir. Questi  s’irradiano nelle vicinanze e nel mondo, e non c’e’  niente da scherzare.

L’INDIA E’ VICINA.

Le distinzioni degli analisti tra Jihadisti e Qaedisti (lette, sentite 100 volte dopo Mumbai 11\26) da alcuni anni non valgono più in  Paki-Afghan-istan: visto che si spacciano per analisti, si leggano l’ultima pagina di ottobre di Le Monde diplomatique – by  Syed Saleem Shahzad.


DETROIT E ANCORA PIU’ VICINO: il modello per il vehicles bail, che Europa e Giappone dovevano imitare sino a ieri,  e’ morto nela cuna (culla). Ora George W Bush ossia Paulsson valuta se stornare  fondi dai $0.7 tr della finanza – cui si era sempre opposto.

2) THE US SENATE HAS JUST REJECTED THE DETROIT BAIL.

-5.5% Tokyo close (drowned by car titles).

The final bargaining between Senate GOP and TUS was about wage reductions, and failed.

Now, GM AND CHRYSLER WILL GO BANKRUPT  in 2 weeks time. Unluckily for everybody, namely workers and their families, the only feasible  road – AN ASSISTED,  CONTRACTED AND PREPARED CH.11, i.e. BANKRUPTCY – has  not been undertaken.We supported the latter  since from the very start, see

https://enzofabioarcangeli.wordpress.com/2008/11/17/

Namely because we knew  very well the strong opposition of the US public opinion against the bail: the social media and the comments to posts gave no doubt. If the priority is redistribution, why concentrate Mean Street bails on Detroit? Of course, making the tiny unionised US working class precarious is no solution, except for social hawks – and the wage issues centrality tells what is at stake: using the GIRA (Global Industrial Reserve Army) and the subcrime recession in order to enslave the Western workers.

THIS IS AN IMPORTANT TURNING MOMENT FOR  GLOBAL STAGDEFLATION POLICIES (and without adequate policies it will be catastrophic): Obama’s New Deal is challenged before it sees the light. The risk is that the Tsunami takes off, and Obama will B cornered to work just for the MT and LT: sustain the mass psychology during a long depression, and continue galvanising young energies for  the America Renaissance … in the 2010s. A Europe without Germany has  no chance  to take the lead in Roubini’s innovative  -radical, and Left Keynesian strong redistributive policies: the only ones that matter when a stagdeflation storm is on.

Our modest opinion is that the Dream Team has made a big mistake: the supposedly radical Robert Reich (in the economic adviser team) had also suggested a reguated Ch.11 one month ago: why not pursue it? Now the time is running short …

3) corsera

DOMANI LA MANIFESTAZIONE NAZIONALE

La Cgil sospende lo sciopero dei treni
Mezzi in funzione a Roma e Venezia

17:25 CRONACHE Lo sciopero generale indetto dalla Cgil subisce alcune deroghe a causa della pesante situazione legata al maltempo. Treni regolari in tutta Italia, settore aereo già esentato

4) l’unità e vari altri giornali – pdf da lavoce.info. TITO BOERI spiega. L’ufficio Bilancio della Camera ha rifatto i conti AL DECRETO  ANTICRISI di 3monti ed e’ risultato UN PIANO PROCRISI, PROCICLICO: infatti alza le tasse più del Delta spesa, con un avanzo netto di  € 390 milioni.

Ora, con le nozioni di macro che s’insegnano alle elementari (se le maestre sono laureate in Scienze della Formazione), si capisce che 3monti sta facendo deragliare IL TRENO DEL PAESE. Prima della fine del 2009 potremmo trovarci con: deflazione, disoccupazione e persino (nel caso peggiore, anni ’30) recessione a 2 cifre;  quasi nessun ammmortizzatore sociale. Partiranno i barconi in senso contrario, VERSO LA LIBIA.

Ecco perche’ non possiamo non dirci sciperanti con CGIL e CUB (sindacati unitari di base), per dirla con B. Croce

ENZITORIALE no.2 – cliccare per il volantino .pdf

enzito2_1_1

UN APPELLO ALLA RESPONSABILITA’ DI TUTTI.

L’ITALIA HA BISOGNO ORA (GENNAIO SAREBBE MOLTO TARDI)

a) DI UNA POLITCA DI STIMOLO FISCALE AI CONSUMI: 5 MILIARDI SONO NULLA, PER AVER EFFETTI PROPORZIONALI ALLA CRISI OCCORRE SALIRE OLTRE 100. CHE LO STIMOLO FISCALE AI CONSUMI SIA OGGI L’UNICO ACCELERATORE DA PREMERE, LO SANNO GLI ASINI MA TREMONTI NO. VEDERE FRANCESCO GIAVAZZI NEI SUOI ULTIMI 2 EDITORIALI CORSERA

b) DI UNA IMMEDIATA COPERTURA CIG TOTALE A TUTTI I PRECARI, NESSUNO ESCLUSO, PRIMO PASSO VERSO UN SALARIO SOCIALE MINIMO: PER NOI E’ GUSTIZIA SOCIALE MINIMA ED UNITA’ DI CLASSE; MA GIAVAZZI CI RICORDA CHE QUESTI SAREBBERO SOLDI SPESI TUTTI; NO RISPARMI, EFFETTO MACRO GARANTITO

c) LA MARCEGAGLIA HA CAPITO LA GRAVITA’ DELLA SITUAZIONE, coi bollettini di guerra dalle aziende e la prospettiva dietro l’angolo  – se non si invertono i meccanismi moltiplicativi\accelerativi – di una deflazione galoppante ed una recessione (STAG-DEFLAZIONE) entrambe a 2 cifre nel 2009:

d) UNA INDUSTRIA ITALIANA ABBANDONATA DA TREMONTI, SOSTENUTA SOLO DA BERLINO E BRUXELLES SAREBBE COME LA JUVE PASSATA D’UFFICIO IN SERIE B. PER QUESTO  da  settimane Confindustria  HA  APERTO UNA LINEA DI DIALOGO CON LA CGIL, con appelli precisi a “tornare al tavolo” per dar manforte contro  il deflazionista irresponsabile Tremonti.

Rispondiamo con Verdi: RITORNA VINCITOR!

Uno sciopero forte, con manifestazioni massicce sono l’ultima partita, quella decisiva per tenere  l’Italia in serie A, in cui ci si gioca tutto.

Se domani riprende la melina, sarà serie B per 10 anni.

Sempre sperando che dal  vento di  Obama, con il lavoro di tutti si  riesca a rallentare SUBITO, poi infine ad arrestare e  rovescare la valanga-Tsunami STAG – DEFLAZIONE (rge-monitor), sennò  QUI RITORNA LA FAME. E, COME PREDISSE ROUBINI A DAVOS, un’Italia vaso di coccio potrebbe anche. alla fine,  scivolare fuori dall’€. Come retrocedere ai campetti di parrocchia.

Per finire, osserviamo non sia ancora finito del tutto (spera di tornare?) IL SOLITO FASCISMO ai cancelli delle fabbriche, che ha continuato per decenni e decenni, ININTERROTTAMENTE ad essere imposto col ricatto, mentre là fuori la società evolveva (IL CLASSICO IN TEMA SONO I DIARI DALLA FABBRICA DI SIMONE WEIL, ma basta parlare all’osteria con un operaio non più giovane, per apprendere la BIOPOLITICA DI FABBRICA), e sequestra i diritti di cittadinanza quando uno timbra il cartellino. VERGOGNA!  ALLA GOGNA I VERTICI DELL’ALENIA  DI NOLA.

Napoli, 5 dicembre

“E’ inaccettabile e provocatorio l’atteggiamento dei vertici dell’Alenia di Nola che hanno impedito al Segretario generale della Fiom Cgil di Napoli di effettuare l’assemblea promossa dalla Cgil in preparazione dello sciopero generale del 12 dicembre”.
E’ quanto sottolinea, in una nota, il Segretario generale della Cdlm di Napoli Giuseppe Errico.
“L’assemblea – precisa Errico – doveva essere supportata da una serie di slides per illustrare meglio i motivi  della mobilitazione. Il loro contenuto era stato preventivamente  comunicato all’azienda. Nonostante cio’ e’  stato impedito al Segretario della Fiom di entrare in fabbrica e svolgere l’assemblea. Il confronto con i lavoratori – conclude Errico – si e’ comunque svolto all’esterno della fabbrica”

NASTRO ROSSO SUL WEB,

nelle blogosfere italiane.

Festeggiamo la nascita oggi di un nuovo sito degli economisti italiani di sinistra, già da noi linkato nel blogroll della colonna di destra: www.economiaepolitica.it e’ un progetto politico-culturale ambizioso, coordinato da Realfonzo e tenuto a battesimo sia da Ferrero che Bersani (2  ministri  del pasato governo), con alcune  ipotesi di fondo interessanti – no.1 cambiare target sul DEBITO PUBBLICO (noi non siamo proprio d’accordo ma occorre discutere, e persino un keynesiano di centro come Paul Samuelson dice, su il sole 24 ore del 5 novembre, che con la crisi epica che ci casca addosso, si gettano a mare le ortodossie e regole del cacchio, si bada a portar fuori la gente dal Titanic). Utile la presentazione che ne fa “il riformista”, chiarendone lo scenario di THINK TANK per ricucire varie anime sparse della sinistra, per capire gli errori e ripartire:

nasce economiaepolitica.it

a Francoforte sono dei Bari

Bari a Francoforte. Il cavallo germanico e’ stanco e  s’abbevera meno.

6 pm GMT UPDATE: we knew nothing, zis morning,  about today’s European stock exchanges, where someone must agree with the Roubini’s tiny sect.

Whatever they think, they voted today  “pollice verso” to ECB dull uncertainty, going opposite to a last minute rally at  Wall Street, with:  FTSE Eurofirst 300 -3.96%,  CAC 40 Paris -5.4%.


If the German horse drinks less,

at ECB they must cheat.

Two bad news from Germany, for the European deep recession.

Today: -6% manuf. industries orders in Germany.

Yesterday: at ECB they have lost their LAST CHANCE to serve the people they should serve.

ECB cuts rates by 0.75, NOT daring to choose between 0.5 and 1.0.

Please note that, as soon as some world region will succeed to do something in order not to stop (physically impossible), but  to smooth some effects of the “december 2007 – sometimes in 2o10-11” recession, Europe will just crackdown as a whole, in the absence of any policy. And there is no reason to preview that any policy will be undertaken in Europe, before it’s too late: IT IS TOO LATE ALREADY.

All the best macro-economists (except our modest, little Roubini sect, the Truth-Tellers) realised we were in a crisis, although still not grasping it as a complex-deep and  unique one, only in … September 20o8, i.e. 13  months after its dramatic, nuclear-bomb  implosion.

The forecast of a German bank of GDP – 4% is  clearly over-optimistic,  in an average scenario without any European economic policy; eventually, later on just  some social policy, when people’s revolts will diffuse and become violent. The Italian CGIL Trade Union is  unluckily the only one, of the 3 BIG TUs,  to play a democratic, moderate and responsible game; with foresightedness, in order to prevent the crisis to go socially very very bad, catastrophic and  VIOLENT; an ideal ground for Red and Islamic Brigades: we’ll talk this soon, in a next post, à propos of the FRIDAY 12 DEC. GENERAL STRIKE IN ITALY ON BEHALF OF AN ECONOMIC POLICY. Talking Brigades: DO YOU KNOW THAT THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME HUNDREDS  hidden-sleeping Al Qaeda associates in Germany, UK and elsewhere, with a European passport, and all of them received a full military training in the tribal provinces of Pakistan? We know it, from published sources: October issue,  Le Monde Diplomatiqe.

From the Frankfurt BABEL TOWER (read: ECB), board member Mr Bini Smaghi (interviewed zis morning at Italian RAI-RADIO 3) replies to the  -4% provocation, by saying that “such bank economists have vested interests” (conflitto di interessi) in making such forecasts. He, they forecast a GDP upturn in the 2009 2nd semester, but they don’t believe such bullshit, since they are not crazy. They just lie.

Let us fix a 1st Babel Tower dimension: LA MALAFEDE;  at the ECB they are liars  using all their hyperpower and Authority, to  diffuse informational heavy drugs, downers (tranquillanti) to people. MENTONO SAPENDO DI MENTINE.

TODAY: According to Mario Platero (il sole 24 ore correspondent), the worst guesses were 380,000 jobs lost in November: they came out almost 50% more than that. IT IS SURE THAT THE U.S. ARE  LOSING MORE THAN 2 MILLION JOBS across 2008, since thet’re up to 1.7 mn by now.

ft

US job losses steepest since 1974

The US economy lost a stunning 533,000 jobs in November – the largest monthly drop in more than three decades – as the unemployment rate jumped to 6.7 per cent
today, Dec.5; – 14:23

German manufacturing orders collapse

October orders fall 6.1%
today, Dec.5; – 12:19

YESTERDAY: At ECB,  besides being professional and trained liars: either they know little about economics, or they live in another planet (ignoring what happens here), or they have unconfessable aims (like fucking the working class and the Trade Unions, together with large sections of the creative and productive bourgeoisie, etc.). We firmly believe THE 4 OF THEM HOLD, in a satanic mix.

As usual, ECB did’nt dare to cut 1% full (just 0.75), even though  its 2%  inflation target is already, fully and even too much satisfied – since (a short lecture  for  ECB dunces and liars):

081204oil-price

a) Summer 2008 breakthrough shift in ALL PRIMARY MARKETS: from inflation to deflation;

b) such a radical change is NOW quickly diffusing  downwards on intermediate and final goods markets;

c) present state-of-the-art: less year-base inflation, quickly converging to the 2% target and overshooting;

d) ST perspective: a DRAMATIC DEFLATION much more than likely:  pretty difficult to avoid, exp. without creativity, innovation and Zeitgeist in economic, social policies and Politics tout court. A horrible  STAG – DEFLATION – Roubini, 2 dec. FT.

wsj

[Crisis Management chart]

ECB, Bank of England Cut Rates

Central banks world-wide delivered sweeping cuts,

with the ECB lowering rates by 0.75 percentage point to 2.5%

and the BOE slashing its key rate by one point to 2%. (Trichet remarks)