InTrade.com is one of the most authoritative prediction markets, and of course it has over-performed polls, as the theory predicts.
THE BREAKING NEWS, A FEW DAYS BEFORE US ELECTION DAY, IS THAT:
while polls exhibit just a 10% lead of Obama, InTrade has already closed the game.
On October 22, Obama is traded at 85.2%, McCain 14.8. Obama was sliding in sumertime, below 50% in the 11-18 Sept. week. Then Lemhan Bros failure and the domino effects of the WALL STREET FALL were blowing wind into his sails. Close to 85% at mid-October, in the middle of the financial storm. Such a historical event as the financial meltdown, and the related severe recession have decided the elections irreversibly. Obama just had to avoid mistakes.
you listen, you choose. But, don’t forget the essential: