paper proposal for a forthc. WB Conference on Evolutionary economic policies

18 marzo 2010
To the atn of
Otavano Canuto

A frame for XXI Century Policies

The paper starts with the a priori, intuitive assumption that the 2007-11 quasi-Great Depression is nothing but a signal of the worst to come. Even if macro-economic indicators had to improve in the immediate years after, as they probably will – for a while.

Section 1

Summarising the basic theoretical modules arguing for the unsustainability of XXI C. Capitalisms; reasons why we exclude the “climate change” bubble from these basic theories.
A) Demographic bubble (MALTHUS-DARWIN; we enlarge here the scope of “Evolutionary Economics”, back to the roots): the real problem versus climate heat rethoric
C) specification of B): East\West regional dualism substitutes for N\S (A. WEBER)
D) technologies-institutions mismatch (SCHUMPETER – DOSI – Perez 2002)
E) further specification of D): a missing energy revolution (SCHUMPETER).

Section 2

Hypothesis c) is detailed here, not because it is euristically superior to the other ones, or more plausible. Just because the Author has been working upon it as a regional scholar.
Mentioning the inter-relations in between the 5 tenets, in eclectical approaches.

Section 3

Policies, prognoses stemming fron the 5 alternative\complementary diagnoses:
A) Malthus was right, and Marx wrong. It is too late: there will be democides and many wars; how to improve emergencies. Climate extremes (now heat) are a normal regulator of overpopulations. In the coming Ice Age (beyond XXI), underpopulation will rule.
B) A new GLOBAL FISCAL POLICY: a serious, unsolvable political puzzle; the transition from US to Chinese imperialism will make things worst in the 1st half of the Century. Are Imperialisms the only workable kind of harmonization of fiscal policies?
C) Just 1 solution: accept and smooth the Western decline (Cacciari 1994); don’t force the East to grow beyond thresholds, just to boost the Western actives; it just doesn’t work;
D) divergence: demand of an Open Democracy – versus old and new Totalitarianisms;
E) the “reverse salient” model (HUGHES) suggests that an energy Revolution is not behind the corner – there is a lot of basic research and  problem solving before. Therefore, here too “emergency” policies are key in the next decades: essentially, a strong energy-saving bias in all technologies and organisations (deepening the post-1973 trajectory).
All the approaches, also because optimistic theories are not focussed upon and reviewed here, stress the absolute agenda-and-time priority of strong and comprehensive emergency policies in the next decades, in a number  of fields: not surprisingly, quite opposite to Naomie Klein (2008). They are the necessary conditions to improve, or at least mitigate LR scenarios.
enzo fabio arcangeli
– Massimo Cacciari 1994, Geofilosofia dell’Europa. Milano: Adelphi.
– Naomie Klein 2008,  The Shock Doctrine. NY: Metropolitan Books.
– Carlota Perez 2002, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar.

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