SocGen: an equity meltdown is coming

ITALY REMEMBERS TODAY, WITH PRESIDENTE ALDO MORO, ALL THE TERRORISM VICTIMS. including Italian State Terrorism italian victims (Piazza Fontana 1968, etc.).


30 years ago, on May the 9th,  1978, Washington and Moscow (as we always guessed, but now we know for sure from a vast literature)  joined together (through a Yalta-based compensation room located in Paris: Vanni Molinari’s Hyperion liaison office), commanding the Red Brigades to kill Aldo Moro. The DC leader that, with excess foresight, was about to bring Berlinguer’s PCI into a bipartisan government in Rome (but the Cold War was still on: feeding geopolitical wars, spy “faux frais” and protected markets for Military Industrial Complexes). Moro joined his fellow Enrico Mattei, the ENI CEO killed by the Mafia on behalf of the 7 Sisters: he was even more foresighted than Aldo Moro, therefore they were obliged to kill him much earlier.


ASSASSINI! US imperialists still consider Italy their Mediterranean “big ship”, and Craxi was the only one with the attributes: a 100% NATO supporter, but not a Washington puppet. The fucking imperialists used and abused the DC, but didn’t like much its leaders, if they killed the two most outstanding ones (apart de Gasperi). With such a sense of impunity, as not even hiding the smoking gun. 

Edwards: “We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios like Freddie Krueger”

Someone was doing the last attempts to deny the ongoing global recession: e.g., by arguing:   “there is no such credit crunch nor Bernanke’s accelerator –  in Europe nonfinancial firms are  increasing their debts and paying the spread, since the stock market is as  thin as a fashion model”.

Crunchy credit (FT 2 days ago): “the new consensus is that the monetary easing already administered by the Federal Reserve could combine with the “stimulus” tax rebates that Americans are about to receive to create a V-shaped recovery.” Well, listen to today’s global strategy weekly  by  Albert Edwards to SocGen clients: 

–  We are trying to give our readers the strongest possible warning (ever!) that we are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios like Freddie Krueger.

– We see a global recession unfolding. Nowhere and nothing will be immune.

– One of the clearest impressions that I will take away from working in this industry is how darned bullish everyone wants to be. To be sure, nobody likes to be a party-pooper but the bias towards optimism in this industry is truly staggering…

reported by Paul Murphy on alphaville 

Prof. Roubini confirms his view that there is a bifurcation behind: between either a V or U (or W) recession in the US; but he adds today that its outcomes will reverberate in Asia, Chindia (therefore – by feedback – a U shape might last even longer, and become more L-shaped).

Effects of the US recession on Asian growth

 Nouriel Roubini | May 8, 2008

Will this region decouple from the US economic contraction?

The answer depends on the severity of this recession. If the US recession is short and shallow (a V-shaped recession lasting six months) then there is enough of a domestic growth dynamics in the rest of the world and in Asia that the global economic slowdown would be very modest. But if the recession is more severe (a U-shaped recession lasting 12 to 18 months) then that US contraction, together with the sharp slowdown in the other G8 economies (…) will negatively affect growth in China and Asia.

While oil prices take the first pages going beyond $126 (but, Paolo Leon is right commenting on radio Rai3, that this does not yet bring back nuclear energy to cost effectiveness), a $ bottom is called by the FT: Europe and US unite on stronger dollar.

PARIS STYLE. A virtual guillotine at Moody’s. Their CEO and President will leave in July. WSJ:

Moody’s Investors President Steps Down

Clarkson’s Exit Marks Highest-Profile Casualty to Date

Over Role of Credit-Rating Firms in Subprime Rout


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