InTrade.com is one of the most authoritative prediction markets, and of course it has over-performed polls, as the theory predicts.
THE BREAKING NEWS, A FEW DAYS BEFORE US ELECTION DAY, IS THAT:
while polls exhibit just a 10% lead of Obama, InTrade has already closed the game.
On October 22, Obama is traded at 85.2%, McCain 14.8. Obama was sliding in sumertime, below 50% in the 11-18 Sept. week. Then Lemhan Bros failure and the domino effects of the WALL STREET FALL were blowing wind into his sails. Close to 85% at mid-October, in the middle of the financial storm. Such a historical event as the financial meltdown, and the related severe recession have decided the elections irreversibly. Obama just had to avoid mistakes.
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you listen, you choose. But, don’t forget the essential:
